Name:	jcope -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/28/2015 11:32:18 AM (updated 12/28/2015 11:35:32 AM)

This year we got a rise from 480 to almost 486 in about 7 days.

Next year with a base elevation of 483,  what is the guess that a similar rain event will take us to.

I wonder if in the tems of Acre/Feet of water where the same event will take us from 483. 

It seems to make sense that the higher the lake level the more Acre/Feet of water each foot of rise holds, but I don't have any idea if the difference is significant.

I just don't know if there is that much difference in Acre/Feet volume for the top foot at different elevetions. I assume that AP knows exactly how many gallons go through the Dam at each elevation, but I have never seen the numbers. Does anyone know for sure?

It would also be nice to know what an inch of rain in the area translates to as far as elevation in the lake.  (i.e. 1" = X Acre Feet)

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/28/2015 1:03:12 PM (updated 12/28/2015 1:04:47 PM)

The rise of water levels is way more complicated than just taking the inches of rain and converting that to gallons of water.  The watershed for Lake Martin is about 3,000 square miles in size.  Rainfall at the lake itself has very little impact on water levels.  Precipitation over the entire watershed, most of which never makes it to Lake Martin, is the key to the water rise.  Some infiltrates, some evaporates, some is collected by stormwater basins, some gets into surface water bodies that discharge into the Tallapoosa, etc.  Keep in mind that during its early days of operation, they used to drop Lake Martin 50 feet in the winter and it would fill up every spring.  Its about managing discharges from the dams on the river in light of the precipitation in the watershed.

The fact is we had a tremendous amount of rainfall in the Tallapoosa River watershed and even if the level were at 483' it would still be 1 foot below full pool.  The dams on the Tallapoosa did exactly what you would expect, the containment of flow to reduce flooding.  This was actually a pretty good example of why having winter pool at 483' is not a problem.

Name:	Samdog -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/28/2015 2:48:57 PM

But to answer your question (partly) the higher the lake level the more rain it takes to get rise.

Name:	Samdog -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/28/2015 2:50:38 PM

I am wondering if they will be able to drop it back to 480 before the end of the winter season. Didn't get a chance to get work done.

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/28/2015 3:16:25 PM

I am in same boat, halfway thru a project and now flooded.

Name:	RickLake -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/28/2015 3:29:34 PM

Me three!  I started a project and need the water to go back down to 480 for at least a few weeks.

Name:	boataholic -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/28/2015 4:13:57 PM

Me four.  Considering buying some waders and some more cordless tools.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Hey MM
Date:	12/28/2015 4:42:52 PM

"even if the level were at 483' it would still be 1 foot below full pool." I always thought reference to full  pool was 490 ft.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Hey MM
Date:	12/28/2015 4:44:47 PM

483 plus 6=489 which is 1 less than 490. Did I really have to explain that?

Name:	Mack -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/28/2015 4:49:58 PM

LNG,, do I see a different bulkhead? Lighter color??

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	Hey MM
Date:	12/28/2015 4:54:13 PM

No, it was very clear what you said.  It would, however, be crazy to see the lake at our normal summer level on Dec 28th.  I think this weather system is showing why 480 has been a good rule for so many years.  If we were today at 489, and get a gulley washer today and again on Wednesday, it would be tricky.

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/28/2015 4:56:16 PM

Indeed.  Pressure treated 2x10s two feet in front of my old decaying concrete block sea wall.  At this time, however, just air between the concrete block and wood wall.

Name:	MrHodja -	Reply
Subject:	Hey MM
Date:	12/28/2015 5:24:13 PM

Didn't have to explain it to me, or anyone else with half or a brain as far as that goes.

Name:	JTenn -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/28/2015 6:15:03 PM

After ALL the debate / comments / postings on winter water levels, folks should have planned their lake work before now. You never know what the weather or AL Power will decide to do. Do what you can when you can!

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Hey Hodja
Date:	12/28/2015 7:09:21 PM

Everytime you post you come across as a puppet for MM. You need to find a way to adjust to reirement. I am always excited when I see that you are still reading my posts unlike MM and Archie.

Happy New Year to you and your family.

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	Hey Hodja
Date:	12/28/2015 8:12:36 PM

Hey GF, let me assure you that the backwards donkey riding man is no puppet of anyone.  Except that I can lead him with a basket of red tomatoes.  And he is far from retired.  I had trouble getting tomatoes to him last summer since he was in northern Va plotting National Security.

Name:	MrHodja -	Reply
Subject:	Hey Hodja
Date:	12/28/2015 9:56:00 PM (updated 12/28/2015 9:57:28 PM)

Yup, I am a sucker for a juicy vine ripe tomato!

And GF I can assure you I think for myself.  You see, LNG and I are also able to comprehend the written word, much as you apparently can't. Where it comes to MM, it just so happens I agree with him a he!! of a lot more than you.  

So keep it up with the comic relief.  It is going to be a long winter if it ever gets cold.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Need to have sympathy for GF
Date:	12/28/2015 10:10:53 PM

I keep telling GF to request a refund from whatever government school failed him but I am not sure he has the mental agility to even figure out what I mean. Believe me, if he can't grasp the simple math from my post he will be totally unable to grasp more complex concepts like two syllable words and compound sentences.

It's funny that he ascribes agreement with being a puppet. I would never say that when he agrees with Archibald or Coppertop, I just assume they are all equally ignorant of reality and unable to use facts, logic and reason.  No need to be a puppet when you are intellectually vacuous like left wing nuts. 

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Need to have sympathy for GF.......THANKS GUYS
Date:	12/28/2015 11:47:49 PM

Showed both Hodgie and MM's post to my shrink and he said he has 2 openngs for Jan 4. Amazing how a statement about water level gets your testosterone flowing. Sad that the master and his puppet are into bickering. Real men don't bicker. 

Name:	Shortbus -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/29/2015 9:05:26 AM (updated 12/29/2015 9:20:01 AM)

Was just curious as to what percent of the lake storage is drawn down in a day at full generation?

Full generation turbine Release is 11936 cubic feet/sec.

Lake volume is 1,622,000 acre feet.

http://www.convertit.com/Go/ConvertIt/Measurement/Converter.ASP

11936 foot^3 = 0.274012855831038 acre foot
                 (volume)                   each second.

86,400 seconds in a day,   so 23,674 acre foot/day.

so draw down is  23,674/1,622,000    or  1.5% total lake volume per day.

http://www.lakesonline.com/Forum/thread.asp?tid=153344&SiteID=AL001

Name:	alatraveler50 -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/29/2015 9:24:37 AM

Saw Noah and his Ark this morning but there was no where for him to tie up to

Name:	Shortbus -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/29/2015 9:34:05 AM (updated 12/29/2015 10:23:20 AM)

Just curious as to what the last rain was worth.

So whats the power check look like full blast?
154 MW times $.07/KWH or $70/MWH = $10,780 per hour =  $258,720 per day


Draw down is  23,674/1,622,000    or  1.5% total lake volume per day.
It takes about 67 days to draw down the full pool with full generation.

So it would take 70% of 67 days to draw down the rain we just had.

So 47 days of full generation or the value of the rain is  $12,159,840


So I want to work on my boathouse and want the water at 480 pronto.
You'd have to spill 2/3 of that reserve or $8 million to facilitate me.

Of course the important question is:
Is there enough diesel fuel on site to cool the nuclear reactor cores?

Name:	jcope -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - History of January Draw Downs
Date:	12/29/2015 10:16:20 AM

From Jan 1, 2010 Lake was at 484 back to 480 on Jan 15. 4 ft in 15 days .  I am not sure how high it really got in late December 2009, no data.

From December 29, 2012 to January 10, 2013 if was drawn down from 484.5 to 480.  4.5 feet in 12 days.

That would mean our 7.1 Feet could be drawn down in 19 to 27 Days.

On the non-technical side, I really enjoyed an hour out in my sit-on Kayak this morning.  Taking off from my dock and paddling on the lake as a Christmas gift from above.

Name:	Shortbus -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - History of January Draw Downs
Date:	12/29/2015 10:28:27 AM

Martin dam has 20 spillway gates that are 30 feet by 16 feet in dimension. The gates are opened as needed in the following sequence: 5-11-3-9-7-1-10-6-12-8-4-2-20-19-18-17-16-15-13-14 (left to right in the picture). The first 12 gates opened are above the basin. The capacity of each gate is 3,016,000 gallons per minute (6,700 cfs).

6700 foot^3  189.7228721664 meter^3
----------- = ----------------------
 second       second    
     (volume flow rate)     

Each gate will flow 190 cubic meters/sec
Guess 50 meters of head
You get spillway loss of 83,876 kw or 84 MW per gate
All 20 gates would be 1677 MW 

Total generation is 154 MW or 213,000 horsepower or about a thousand car motors.
So two spill gates at 168 MW are more than the full generation capacity.

So whats the power check look like full blast?
154 MW times $.07/KWH or $70/MWH = $10,780 per hour or $7.76 million per month
Of course average reality is a fraction of this...ain't that much water.

So what's the spill gate loss?
84MW times $70/MWH = $5880 per hour per gate

Just curious. Time to go swimming now.

Name:	Shortbus -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - History of January Draw Downs
Date:	12/29/2015 10:52:25 AM (updated 12/29/2015 11:13:59 AM)

So how long does it take to dump the lake volume thru the dam?

Generation is 23,674 acre foot/day.

Martin dam has 20 spillway gates that are 30 feet by 16 feet in dimension. The gates are opened as needed in the following sequence: 5-11-3-9-7-1-10-6-12-8-4-2-20-19-18-17-16-15-13-14 (left to right in the picture). The first 12 gates opened are above the basin. The capacity of each gate is 3,016,000 gallons per minute (6,700 cfs).

3016000 gallon   13328.2828282828 acre foot
-------------- = --------------------------    for each spillway.  20 spillways is 266560 acre foot per day
    minute                  day            
            (volume flow rate)   


20 spillways + generation is     290234 acre feet per day.  This is a wide open dam.

The lake has a surface area of 39,000 acres and a volume of 1,622,000 acre feet.

So it would take 5.6 days to dump the full lake.

The rain we had added 7 feet of 53 meters ( 160 feet).

So maybe it takes 7/160 * 5.6 days   or    .245 days to dump the rain we had at full dump.

Of course this assumes nothing flowing into the lake and the lake is square.


       

Name:	F1Fan -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/29/2015 11:16:49 AM (updated 12/29/2015 11:19:13 AM)

shortbus - w/r/t outflow - - - the APC site on Sunday showed four turbines running at 9:17 a.m. and a flow rate of 15,884 CFS, so your numbers appear low by a good bit. By comparison, right now there are two running, 7,964CFS. I can't help but imagine that downstream levels are becoming an issue after all this, but as others have pointed out without the dam project Tallassee would be GONE by now!

Of course this was when the lake was at only 485'4"! What a crazy December!

Name:	Shortbus -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/29/2015 11:25:15 AM (updated 12/29/2015 11:32:22 AM)

There is turbine flow and spillgate flow.

All turbines are close to 2 spillgates in flow.

If you see bad numbers let me know.  I thought this calculation proved 11936 full generation flow.

Current Lake Conditions
Date: 7/8/2013
Hour Ending: 10:16:00 PM

Lake Elevation
489.47 Feet

Turbine Release
11936 cfs

If the Turbine Release is 11936 cubic feet/sec, then it is also 338 cubic meters/sec.
http://www.convertit.com/Go/ConvertIt/Measurement/Converter.ASP

Drop it into power calculator with 53 meters of head (guess)
http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/hydropower-d_1359.html

You get 158,163  KW or  158 MW

Dam Stats

Add up all the watts you get 154.2 MW
Got it to 97.6% first try.

URL: Hydropower calculator

Name:	F1Fan -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/29/2015 11:43:40 AM (updated 12/29/2015 11:44:51 AM)

I'm not trying to dispute your calculations, just looking at the data provided by APCO instead of using a calculator to figure flow rates from generators. You listed 11936CFS for all four turbines I thought.

Currently 2 turbines, 7956CFS

Name:	George -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/29/2015 11:55:44 AM

I'm going to save this string of posts to read on nights when I cannot sleep .

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - Speculation for Future
Date:	12/29/2015 2:52:54 PM

Shortbus, with all the calculations, you have earned the right to drive the Long Bus.  All your calculations prove that MM is wrong and there is global warming. 

Name:	boataholic -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - History of January Draw Downs
Date:	12/29/2015 3:04:07 PM

Meanwhile the Power Company projects the level will crest below 489 on Jan 1.  So we probably won't see anything below 483 for 6 more years.  Now I've got to figure out creative ways to shore up this old dock I bought with the house last summer.

Name:	F1Fan -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - History of January Draw Downs
Date:	12/29/2015 3:15:15 PM

I really can't imagine they won't be drawing it down just as fast as possible during the entire month of January. That means the window of time for work when it's down, before it starts going back up, may be limited, but I'd be surprised if we didn't see it back at 483ish by middle to late January. Think of all the free power for them, too!

Failure to do that just leaves zero wiggle room for the late winter/early spring rains and I don't see them taking that reckless tact. YMMV.

BTW - I'm in the same suddenly floating boat. Had a small project that was going to start this Th, not it's underwater!

Name:	Shortbus -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - History of January Draw Downs
Date:	12/29/2015 3:50:30 PM (updated 12/29/2015 3:55:43 PM)

Yea, something looks fishy.  Must be the numbers I picked were with partial generation.

Assuming 100% efficiency, they are right.

But with partial generation at 11k ft3  and inefficiencies involved the numbers may be off.

Generation full flow is higher likely but won't effect the dump times very much.

I never checked anything just flew through.  Someone tell me if its wrong.

I have no emotions about being told I'm wrong.  It's very male to learn something instead of cry about it.

Name:	Shortbus -	Reply
Subject:	Shut up and have a dam beer.... NT
Date:	12/29/2015 10:51:08 PM (updated 12/29/2015 11:05:03 PM)

Ah the master of double entendre.  Mr. Summer Lover.

Saw something cool at my buddy's today.

A little bell with BEER ME on it...............................

Name:	realfast64 -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - History of January Draw Downs
Date:	12/30/2015 2:22:33 PM

  Amazing that this happened so soon after the relicense of the guidelines. I am betting they (the feds) take another look at their decision.

Name:	Summer Lover -	Reply
Subject:	Shut up and have a dam beer.... NT
Date:	12/30/2015 6:29:22 PM

I fear that if I was using a "beer me" bell at my house, that the Mrs. would make sure that I carried it around with me at all times.  No pocket or hands required...

Name:	Shortbus -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - History of January Draw Downs
Date:	12/31/2015 9:05:41 AM (updated 12/31/2015 9:09:32 AM)

Generation outflow 18,565 ft^3 on 12/31/15.

I'm assuming this is full generation?

Full generation should also be contingent on head or height of water behind dam.

I believe that the same volume of water falling from a higher spot makes more electricity.

This means 483 water makes more juice than 480?

https://apcshorelines.com/our-lakes/martin/

Name:	btexpress -	Reply
Subject:	Water Rise - History of January Draw Downs
Date:	12/31/2015 11:38:59 AM

More JUICE.....Happy New Year

Name:	Summer Lover -	Reply
Subject:	You missed the point bt
Date:	12/31/2015 6:56:53 PM

"Full generation should also be contingent on head."

Name:	JTenn -	Reply
Subject:	You missed the point bt
Date:	12/31/2015 7:54:05 PM

Head water elevation as well as tail water make a difference in the maximum power genreation.