Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Will Trump be the GOP's Obama?
Date:	3/15/2018 11:17:01 AM (updated 3/15/2018 11:19:13 AM)

This was a question I posed long ago when Trump was first elected.  As we saw with the two terms of Obama, a President can cause a huge backlash that benefits the opposing party.  The more I've seen with the special elections, most recently PA-18 which is where I grew up, the more I think the most important factor is enthusiasm.  And there's no doubt in my mind that the enthusiasm is on the side of the #resistance.

As for PA-18, a number of interesting observations.  First of all, Lamb ran pretty much as a Republican and was wise to do so.  No doubt he'll tow the party line when he votes but he ran as pro-2nd amendment, pro tax cuts, etc.  Second, while this district went for Trump in a big way it is filled with lots of cultural Democrats.  This area used to be very blue collar and very Democrat.  Third, this District has been redrawn by the PA courts and will become smaller and more heavily Democrat so you can expect Lamb to hold onto it in the fall when he has to run again.  PA-14 will be more rural and more Republican.  So for a good portion of the voters, including those in my home town, he will not be their congressman come the fall.  Fourth, both parties spent heavily in this race and Trump was all in. But the GOP likely spent more and yet they still lost.  So spending was once again not the deciding factor as we saw in the GA-6 special election.  Fifth, this was a race to replace a disgraced GOP congressman that had to resign.  Those kind of headwinds always benefit the challenger.

Any way you look at it, my guess right now is that the Democrats will gain control of the House in the fall.  I still think they'll hold the Senate but you can look forward to impeachment proceedings in the House in 2019.  Whatever Trump wants to get done he better do it in the next 8 months because after that he is going to be stymied by the House and thr stupid rules in the Senate.  And if somehow the Democrats get control of the Senate you might want to start practicing the term President Pence.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Will Trump be the GOP's Obama?
Date:	3/16/2018 12:03:15 AM

The win is really surprising considering that Murphy, the Republican who resigned in disgace, won in 2012 64% to 36%. The defeat was so bad the Democrats did not run a candidate in 2014 and 2016.

The 18th district has been elimnated effective with the November 2018 election by the PA Supreme Court as it deemed it to be so biased toward the Reublican candidates. That is why the defeat is rather astonishing.

Lamb was smart to run a local race. Here is his position on taxes and  abortion

Taxes: He called the GOP tax bill a "giveaway" to wealthy Americans and said he supports cuts for the middle class. "We didn't need to add a penny to our debt to have the tax cut for our working and middle-class people," Lamb said in a debate.

Abortion: Lamb, a Catholic,  personally opposes abortion but backs the Supreme Court's decision legalizing it. "Once you make something a right, it's a right. And it's like that for a reason," he told HuffPost. Lamb told the Weekly Standard he doesn't support a ban on abortion at 20 weeks.