Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Comments on the stock market for Archie
Date:	12/11/2018 12:29:33 PM

With the verbosity post I thought I had missed some long-winded post but apparently not.  I did see Archie's question about the markets and who gets the blame.  First point is I am not sure who he was referring to as to who was to blame for the 2008 financial crisis.  I have long advocated based on facts, logic and reason that the collapse of the housing market and the resulting recession was caused by government distortion of the free markets, especially programs that pushed banks to lend to uncreditworthy applicants.  This distortion was mostly a result of Democrat policies from years past but wasn't corrected by the GOP when they had the chance so they share some of the blame.

As for what is happening now, it is really pretty obvious to all but the most economically illiterate.  Because of the Fed's QE policies over the last 10-15 years the stock market has become addicted to easy money and low interest rates as equities were the only place to find a decent ROI.  Hence, every time the Fed announces a rate increase the markets tank.  The problem with these kind of monetary policies is that at some point the piper must be paid and the Fed uses inflation as the indicator of the need to tighten things up.  So under Obama, the economy never really recovered to the point where they needed to tighten monetary policy because inflation was never a concern.  However, the last two years we have seen a tightening of the labor market which drives up wages and allegedly inflation so the Fed raises interest rates which drives the markets downward.  Combine that with the potential trade war with China, a slowdown in the housing market caused by higher interest rates. etc. and we have a correction.  One thing we know from history is that the Fed is incapable of providing a soft landing for the economy and almost always overshoot in both directions.  That is what they are doing now based on the belief that the economy is red hot and inlation is right around the corner.

That Fed policy has become the engine which drives stock values is yet another distortion caused by the the federal government doing things it was never intended to do with the willing cheers from corporate interests and the investor class.  But sadly that horse has left the barn, crossed the street and is eating the neighbor's grass and getting it back is going to be painful.  So painful in fact that there isn't the political will to do so by either party.  It would start with an independent audit of the Fed.  But that isn't going to happen because politicians of both parties like to use the Fed to cover for their fiscal insanity by propping up markets.  And let's face the reality that the party in power always loves the Fed easy money and the party out of power loves tight money because it tanks the economy and the markets and gives them talking points to bludgeon the opposition.

Now that folks is verbosity.  And I could go on even longer but I will refrain from being even more verbose.

Name:	Buteye -	Reply
Subject:	Comments on the stock market for Archie
Date:	12/11/2018 9:25:53 PM (updated 12/11/2018 9:27:54 PM)

As can be expected, your summation about how the Fed affects the stock market is one that too many of our elected leaders do not understand or don't see the need to try and improve the current system. It is all too clear to see that the Democrats say to "hell" with what is good for the country, their one track agenda is to get rid of President Trump.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       As for the immigration issue, the amount of money that will be saved annually by building the "WALL" will pay for the wall many times over and will greatly add to the safety and provide more job opportunities for our own people. I guess I could have been more verbose but hopefully I made my point.

Name:	lucky67 -	Reply
Subject:	Comments on the stock market for Archie
Date:	12/12/2018 9:47:06 AM (updated 12/12/2018 9:48:41 AM)

MM--as a former bond trader--I enjoyed your analysis & must compliment you on your insight into the markets--I have long been a proponent of abolishing  the Federal Reserve--and at the same time  the worthless  U.N.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Comments on the stock market for Archie
Date:	12/12/2018 10:59:38 AM

What I have never gotten is the desire to lay blame or take credit for what the markets do because it's a double edged sword.  So let's blame Trump for the recent correction.  OK, so what you are saying is that he gave us such a great economy with nearly full employment which has stoked the fears of inflation and caused the Fed to raise interest rates.  Guilty as charged!  Or alternatively we could talk about how well the market did from the 2008 correction as a result of the recession up through the Obama years.  OK, so what you are saying is that the recovery sucked so bad and unemployment was so high that the Fed had to keep the quantitative easing going so the markets did reasonably well.  Again, guilty as charged! 

So which do you prefer under the current climate where the Fed actions have such an impact on the markets, a lousy economy with low rates or a strong economy with higher rates?  This is obviously a bit simplistic but that's where we are with the stock markets and the back and forth with blaming our political opponents and giving credit to our political allies.  And if you want to pillory Trump for crowing about the stock market rise before this correction you need to also include Obama who constantly took credit for it in his speeches.  The reality is that neither was solely responsible for anything the market does.  Their policies can impact economic growth and activity in a way that indirectly impacts the ups and downs, but they are but one of many causes.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	MM...verbosity personified indeed!
Date:	12/14/2018 12:00:22 AM (updated 12/14/2018 12:01:30 AM)

Not to mention a nice slice of BS!

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Archie's fact free response
Date:	12/14/2018 6:34:21 AM

Now I recall why I have you on ignore.  You have absolutely nothing of value or substance to add to any discussion and you lower the IQ of anyone that reads your drivel.  I thought I'd give you one more chance and that is the best you can do?  I pray to God I never enter any building you were involved with because it must be a disaster waiting to happen.  Please post a list and save lives.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	A few comments and suggestions for MM
Date:	12/14/2018 11:26:28 AM

Please put me back on Ignore as proof yet again you have no interest in opinions of anybody that is not a Trump kiss-up

Please do a Google search to see what the legislation inacted by one Sen Phil Gramm and his "Katie bar the door" GOP cohorts had to do with the 2008 financial meltdown

Please review the Rules and regulations specifically prohibiting a lender from lending to an applicant who could not demonstrate an ability to repay, that were a part of the law requiring financial institutions to stop discriminating in their lending policy...that is "you can no longer refuse a mortgage to lend to any applicant who has the qualifications and appraised value for the loan simply because of where they live or their ethnic or religious background."

BTW:  In over 40 Years of architectural practice I have never even been threatened by an owner or builder or consultant with a lawsuit related to errors or omissions or any other liability for any design for which I was the Architect or record.  No project of mine has ever had any structural failures nor any other issue which cast my work in any negative light.  I have won several design awards and the only damage on any of the 7 houses of my design that were in the path of hurricane Michael was the "horrendously tragic" ripping of screens on porches or windows at 4 of them.  How many times have you been sued MM?