Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Are The Numbers Real????
Date:	12/24/2018 4:30:11 PM

The day was  January 20, 2009 and Omama became President. The DJIA was 7550. On December 25th 2010, 2 years later, the DJIA was 11,573...an increase of 53%.

On January 20, 2017 when the crowds set new records, Trump became President. and the DJIA was 19,827. On December 25th 2018 the DJIA is 21,792...an increase of 10%.

""President Barack Obama stepped into office in 2009 — the year after stocks lost nearly 40% amid the financial crisis of 2007-2008. 

And a few months into his presidency, he ended up making one of the most perfectly timed market calls ever. 

On March 3, 2009, just three days before stocks on the S&P 500 touched an intraday low of 666, and six days before the closing low of 676.53, the president said: "What you're now seeing is profit-and-earnings ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it." 

Fast-forward to  Obama's last full day in office — when the S&P 500 closed at 2,263.69, up by about 225% since he made the call. ""

Let's hope Trump can come close the next 2 years.

Name:	Carlson -	Reply
Subject:	Are The Numbers Real????
Date:	12/24/2018 6:24:06 PM

Numbers lie and liares figure.  Go back and calculate the Dow the day after those elections.  

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	MERRY CHRISTMAS
Date:	12/24/2018 6:25:12 PM

LIBERAL IDIOT

Name:	Lifer -	Reply
Subject:	Wix...
Date:	12/24/2018 6:28:32 PM

Why be repetitive like that.

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	Wix...
Date:	12/24/2018 6:40:05 PM

Just keeping up the double whammy campaign to get thru to IDIOTs.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Merry Christmas GF
Date:	12/25/2018 10:22:54 AM

but you might as well quit wasting your time stating facts and telling the truth to the Trump lemmings.  To them facts and truth are now ''fake news''!  The real factual truth is that by now all the Trumpistas on this forum know deep in their hearts that they made a bigly mistake in putting their trust in this narcisstistic blow-hard failure but are either too blinded by bias, too embarressed by what's happening or too ashamed of their own electoral mistake to admit it.

BTW:  What happened to that Santa Clause Rally?

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	BTW
Date:	12/25/2018 10:28:04 AM

Other than keeping his mouth shut, Obama had very little to do with the market run up between 2009 and 2016. Because he cannot ever keep his mouth shut Herr Groppenfuherer Trump OWNS the market performance for 2018!

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	A coincidence?
Date:	12/26/2018 10:33:13 AM

I suggest you look at the stock market prior to the Democrats taking control of the House compared to today.  Not a coincidence that once the polls pretty much told everyone the GOP would lose the House the markets have tanked.  A logical reaction to this change in power in the House.

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	We saw it coming
Date:	12/26/2018 12:41:11 PM

All of my friends, who have portfolios, agree… we are (were) overdue for a BIG adjustment in the stock market.  Most stocks are (were) way overvalued… especially tech stocks.  The most volatile stocks are the tech stocks… based on intellectual value and sales revenue.  Look up the PE of the stocks suffering the most. They generally have a PE greater than 30. Some of the “vaporware” tech stocks have a PE over 100.  The recent, inordinate rise in stock value seems to be more attributable to euphoria rather than value.  We’re now having an overdue correction.

Been here before… don’t have a 3^rd story window to jump out of.  I guess I’ll have to just go on living… holding… buying.

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	We saw it coming
Date:	12/26/2018 3:03:58 PM

Agreed, let the financial wizards like Archie and Fish focus on assigning blame.  I have found that my passive income has increased under Trump.  My wealth building strategy has not been affected by the market, as a matter of fact, under Trump there has been plenty of opportunity to make money that was not available under Obama.  Sure, we would all like to see a permanent bull market, but corrections will occur and we are in one now.    We deplorables love capitalism and understand that wealth creation takes alot of time with many bumps and potholes along the way.  No one individual can be blamed, although a few on this blog are mired in TDS that causes them to miss the bigger picture. 

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Well today didn't help Goofy's thesis
Date:	12/26/2018 4:31:51 PM

I suspect we are in for a wild up and down ride.  Not a shocker given the holiday sales numbers.  Amazing what people do when they have a job.  Regardless, expect another correction downward before the end of the year.  Emotions and volatility are riding high right now. 

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	Now's a good time to walk your horse
Date:	12/26/2018 5:38:39 PM

Umph! Up 1000 points in one day.  THAT’s not permanent.  It just puts off the inevitable.

What really makes me grimace, is the way the media attributes a rise or fall to some single event or government action.  For example (fictional):  “Today stocks took a downward dive over President Trumps announcement that we are withdrawing from Islamistan.  Investors are shuttling their money towards bonds and currencies.”   Yep! I got that.  What an absolutely worthless proclamation.  There is NO useable information in a statement like that.

The stock market NEEDS a correction.  Am I happy my portfolio is up very nicely… of course.  Am I confident that I am going to be a big winner again next year… not so much.

PS:  for those of you over 70, your RMDs may be just a little too ripe next year.  Stick to your rules when deciding on discretionary distribution taking.

Name:	Carlson -	Reply
Subject:	Now's a good time to walk your horse
Date:	12/26/2018 6:22:00 PM

So what do you consider a correction?  Usually a 10-20% drop marks most corrections.  Do you believe the lows have been tested or we give back a 1,000 plus some.  If so what level do you consider the bottom?  

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Now's a good time to walk your horse
Date:	12/26/2018 6:42:35 PM (updated 12/26/2018 6:43:20 PM)

MM blames the new House and ,likewise, must credit the 1000 point increase to the fact that Trump was out of the country today. Not very complicated guys.

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	Now's a good time to walk your horse
Date:	12/27/2018 9:03:26 AM

So 1000 pts was about 4 ½ percent.  Yes… maybe that wasn’t enough. So much of our tech industry is vaporware…  I don’t know how much.  I was expecting a correction of about 10% but, would just have to live through (again) as much as 20%.

I wonder how many investors sold off over-valued tech for energy, transportation, retail, and heavy industry… rode the vaporware to this artificial high and then converted.

When I buy stock symbols, I stay with PE below 30 and go immediately to dividend reinvestment.  My broker annually advises me when and how (but not what) to rebalance my mutual funds.  Each year he advises me to dial back a little more on risk… something to do with age… imagine that!

I am still doing the ol' 4% per year distribution... RMDs first.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	A suggestion
Date:	12/27/2018 10:24:33 AM (updated 12/27/2018 10:28:10 AM)

to all who make assumptions on the economy.  Do a GOOGLE search and follow the performance of the US economy (equities performance, new jobs, investment, new businesses established, and corporate profits) since the end of WW II compared side by side with who sat in the white House and controlled congress.

I suspect most of this forum will be very surprised. Some will even declare it ''fake'' news!

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	A suggestion
Date:	12/27/2018 1:37:02 PM

Archie,

That was probably your lamest post of the year.  How do you prove that your conclusion was not achieved by simple chance?  There is no control group, no similar economic cohort.  That is what the media gives you, those of us in the science field know that conclusions must be justified by the methods.  Your methodology was juvenile.

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	A suggestion
Date:	12/27/2018 1:45:50 PM

Would really be nice since he wants to cherry pick his data to just go ahead and provide links(since he already searched it out) to back up his claims.

but Antifatech never provides his sources.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Hey CRD and Phil
Date:	12/27/2018 2:19:21 PM (updated 12/27/2018 2:23:01 PM)

They are not my claims, it's history were are talking, no methodology or cherry picking involved.  I give no opinion nor comment on the why and wherefore, but simply point out that history shows the economy has generally grown faster, usually much faster, when the Democrats ran the show.  Truths are often uncomfortable but they are still truths.  I can understand why that is hard to understand by those who have been hypnotized by a charlatan who has no knowledge of nor concern for the truth.  I'm sure you actually believe that all military personnel has IN FACT received a 10% pay raise last year and that it was the first raise that they had received in over a decade...it's got to be so because HE said it!

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	Hey CRD and Phil
Date:	12/27/2018 2:26:34 PM (updated 12/27/2018 2:28:28 PM)

Hey Antifatech - still no links to anything 

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Good grief Phil
Date:	12/27/2018 6:20:45 PM

you are lazy as well as uninformed?  After dinner if I can remember I will do the grunt work for you and post a couple of links.

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	Hey CRD and Phil
Date:	12/27/2018 8:26:04 PM

So Archie, if those same numbers that you are noting coincided with oscillations in sunspot activity, I could similarly make the claim that our economic indicators are not really related to a D or an R, but in fact, radiation blasts affecting our planet's ecosystem.  Since when do "historical" coincidences not need statistical verification?

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Good grief Phil
Date:	12/27/2018 11:27:44 PM (updated 12/27/2018 11:33:58 PM)

Read my posts again.  I didn't say there are no relationship between the politics, philosophy and policies of who controls the White House and what the economy does nor did I claim there are no statistical facts to to explain the relationship.  Of course there are relationships between economic performance and politics, although not nearly as much as many assume, and the historic record of performance during times of Democratic vs Republican control should give a reasonable Republican pause.  I simply pointed out the record (history) of the performance and made it clear I was giving nothing more than that.  I made no attempt to get into the what and why of the history.  Maybe you can get into that nitty-gritty and give us a synopsis.  It might even be an eye-opener for you!

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	Ah what? - Good grief Phil
Date:	12/28/2018 12:04:45 AM

What?

Is there a question here?  is there a debatable point?

This sort of diatribe is VERY difficult to follow... much less, worthy of response.

Connect your string of reason.  Provide the foundation of your argument. Avoid desent into invective and pejorative.

We all are well versed on how you FEEL.  Now, support your argument without disgressing into invective.

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	Good grief Antifatech
Date:	12/28/2018 8:50:00 AM (updated 12/28/2018 8:50:14 AM)

Yup if you can remember to do something you already did - should be really easy for you to come up with links to all of that information.  But then again if you ever posted your links to start with instead of just claiming it as history, fact or whatever then we could all see that your choice of hand picked "reliable" and "unbiased" sources are what you claim.  You posted several times for me to post links to backup my claims - but it is funny you never put out links to back up yours.  

Just pointing out the obvious.

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	Good grief Phil
Date:	12/28/2018 10:23:13 AM

"...of course there are relationships between economics and politics"  just as there are relationships between economics and hurricane activity, between economics and terrorism, between economics and drought, between economics and technology, between economics and energy availability, between economics and war, between economics and sun spot activity, between economics and population demographics, between economics and just about anything you can think of.  The point Archie, is that your focus on A is B because of C where A (is National Economics)

          B  (Plug in  Good or Bad)

          C  ( D or R in office at the time)

is at best naive and at worst, just plain partisan and ignorant.

CRD

Name:	Carlson -	Reply
Subject:	Money makes the world go around.....
Date:	12/28/2018 12:12:11 PM

as they say, follow the money when looking at any event.  

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	I provided the facts
Date:	12/30/2018 1:59:18 PM

and facts only.  If you are interested in researching the reasons behind the facts or in trying to point out an error in my facts go for it...l have no interest in doing it for you.  When you complete your research and are prepared to debunk my facts do so...otherwise ''eschew obfuscating''!

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	I provided the facts
Date:	12/30/2018 9:11:00 PM

Very simplified and sterile facts, however, your subtle premise that correlation equals causation in this regard has also proven to be generally factually incorrect.