Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	availability heuristic
Date:	8/5/2019 9:27:06 AM

"... research by Steven Pinker at Harvard University has shown that we are currently living in the least violent time in history. There are more people living in peace right now than ever before. The rates of homicide, rape, sexual assault, and child abuse are all falling.

"Most people are shocked when they hear these statistics. Some still refuse to believe them. If this is the most peaceful time in history, why are there so many wars going on right now? Why do I hear about rape and murder and crime every day? Why is everyone talking about so many acts of terrorism and destruction?

"Welcome to the availability heuristic.

"The answer is that we are not only living in the most peaceful time in history, but also the best reported time in history. Information on any disaster or crime is more widely available than ever before. A quick search on the Internet will pull up more information about the most recent terrorist attack than any newspaper could have ever delivered 100 years ago.

"The overall percentage of dangerous events is decreasing, but the likelihood that you hear about one of them (or many of them) is increasing. And because these events are readily available in our mind, our brains assume that they happen with greater frequency than they actually do.

"We overvalue and overestimate the impact of things that we can remember and we undervalue and underestimate the prevalence of the events we hear nothing about."

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/5-common-mental-errors-that-sway-you-from-making-good-decisions?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Name:	Carlson -	Reply
Subject:	Amen!
Date:	8/5/2019 10:00:16 AM

i needed that, thanks 

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	availability heuristic
Date:	8/5/2019 10:06:07 AM

Imagine how people would feel about automobile safety if they were exposed to every one of the 90 deaths that happen every day?  No doubt there is a perception bias as a result of easy access to information and the fixation of the media on death and mayhem.  Dirty laundry.....

Name:	blmeanie -	Reply
Subject:	availability heuristic
Date:	8/5/2019 12:38:05 PM

not quite the same thing but on I-75 overhead signs in Georgia they tell you how many YTD deaths on Geogia roadways, it is frightening, maddening, sickening to see the counter go up so quickly, so often.

Name:	MrHodja -	Reply
Subject:	availability heuristic
Date:	8/5/2019 7:22:31 PM

I have often thought that things are not any worse than they have ever been, we just hear about more of them because of our instantaneous and pervasive news capabilities that weren’t available in the past 

Name:	Buteye -	Reply
Subject:	availability heuristic
Date:	8/5/2019 8:31:02 PM (updated 8/5/2019 8:36:55 PM)

If the "fake" news media was as quick to "report" on the good/positive things that are happening in this country as they are to report on the bad/negative things, what a wonderful difference we could witness on the news each morning as we drink our cup of coffee. It seems that they think their whole "purpose" is to report on all the "negative" things that create "division and turmoil", with their main  "focus" being on network ratings. I agree that this is a very simplistic approach but any change would bear what is happening today.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Why The Forum Drives You Crazy
Date:	8/5/2019 9:03:27 PM

It goes on post after post. Some like Martini are unable to handle it and use the IGNORE feature.

5. Confirmation Bias.

The Grandaddy of Them All.

Confirmation bias refers to our tendency to search for and favor information that confirms our beliefs while simultaneously ignoring or devaluing information that contradicts our beliefs.

For example, Person A believes climate change is a serious issue and they only search out and read stories about environmental conservation, climate change, and renewable energy. As a result, Person A continues to confirm and support their current beliefs.

Meanwhile, Person B does not believe climate change is a serious issue, and they only search out and read stories that discuss how climate change is a myth, why scientists are incorrect, and how we are all being fooled. As a result, Person B continues to confirm and support their current beliefs.

Changing your mind is harder than it looks. The more you believe you know something, the more you filter and ignore all information to the contrary.

It is not natural for us to formulate a hypothesis and then test various ways to prove it false. Instead, it is far more likely that we will form one hypothesis, assume it is true, and only seek out and believe information that supports it. Most people don’t want new information, they want validating information.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Why The Forum Drives You Crazy
Date:	8/6/2019 8:00:08 AM

You've got it all wrong Goofy.  I put people like Archie and johndoe on ignore because they are stupid and literally have nothing of any substantive value to add to any conversation. 

I have lots of liberal friends and I still have several left wingers on this forum that I have not put on ignore, including you.  And I frequently read articles on left leaning websites including some of the networks, HuffnPuff, Axios, etc.  I get plenty of alternative views.....I just find them not very compelling and often just plain lacking in facts, logic and reason.

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	Why The Forum Drives You Crazy
Date:	8/6/2019 8:44:18 AM

What I find funny is that GFY is wanting to say that everyone who argues against him gets all there sources from one set of sources that only support our own conclusions - while he probably does exactly that.

He and Antifatech lives in their own little bubble echo chambers and only hear what they want.  I regularly go to leftists sites to see what the are saying and make up my own mind.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Why The Forum Drives You Crazy
Date:	8/6/2019 8:53:18 AM

One thing you can be sure of is that when leftists accuse you of something it is because that's exactly what they do.  They call it projection and they are experts at that.  It's like all the claims of racism.  They are the real racists given how they assume people of color can't succeed without the government stepping in....the bigotry of low expectations.  So they assume any criticism of anyone who is not white is de facto racism.  They do so because they are projecting their own racism.

Name:	Buteye -	Reply
Subject:	Why The Forum Drives You Crazy
Date:	8/6/2019 11:02:49 AM

As usual, you are right on "target"!!!!!!!!

Name:	lolapaluuza -	Reply
Subject:	availability heuristic
Date:	7/18/2020 7:45:33 PM

Wow, thanks for the quotes, they'll come in handy in my dissertation. I'm just comparing the modern era with the early 20th century. The only thing is that I spent too much time studying the period of the world wars, so I use the dissertation writing help. And I think these words will look good there.