Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Don't believe Rueters/Ipsos poll
Date:	11/27/2019 1:11:54 PM

This particular outlier in growing support for impeachment has one little problem.....at the bottom and buried in the text it revealed its sample breakdown from it's ~1,100 participants: 528 Democrats, 394 Republicans, and 111 Independents.  In other words they polled more Democrats than Republicans and Independents combined.  Did the same stupid thing in 2016 when they concluded Hillary was going to crush Trump.  So why do they do this?  Simple answer is that polls are not used to accurately gauge sentiment, it's to influence it and make news.  Which is why these faulty polls get wall to wall coverage when others that say something they don't like get ignored.  And these numbers get included by the aggregators like RCP or 528 thereby skewing the results away from reality.  And of course 8 in 10 Democrats favored impeachment.....what a shocker.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Response from Rueters
Date:	11/27/2019 2:33:23 PM (updated 11/27/2019 2:33:56 PM)

Here is a response from Reuters......

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	Response from Rueters
Date:	11/27/2019 2:40:17 PM (updated 11/27/2019 2:46:34 PM)

You are saying that based on the information that MM posted that based on the site you posted in #1 should have ind sampled at a much higher rate - thanks for proving MM right.

 #4 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-polls/how-the-polls-including-ours-missed-trumps-victory-idUSKBN1343O6 imagine that MM posts about one post and you post someone elses poll to claim that he was incorrect.

Rule of thumb is never trust polls good or bad - they are too easily weighted or worded to be used to move opinions not report where the populace is actually at.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Response from Rueters is wrong
Date:	11/27/2019 2:49:37 PM (updated 11/27/2019 2:50:45 PM)

Uh huh, the country is over 50% Democrats.  And no, they predicted at the end that there was a 90% likelihood that Hillary would win.  Also said Trump would only get 42% of the popular vote.  Wrong on both counts.  And this came from a Rueters article doing a post-mortem on the faulty polling in 2016. 

As for their weighting, in prior recent polling they talked to fewer Democrats than Republicans and Independents combined and the results were unchanged.  Yet somehow magically in this new poll they talk to far more Democrats and the support for impeachment goes up while all the other polls show the opposite or unchanged.  And according to a slew of polls the difference in party affiliation is anwyhere from about equal to a slight majority for Democrats, certainly not the percentages they used.  Gallup had it at 30% GOP, 38% Independent and 31% Democrat as of two weeks ago.  Sorry Goofy, but their claims about weighting in the final results strains credibility.

Like I said, do not trust this poll.  And my criticism is because it is at odds with all the other polls, not because I don't like it.  But nice try with the cut and paste.

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	Response from Rueters is wrong
Date:	11/27/2019 2:54:21 PM

Would be nice if he would use the actual LINK to the Reuters website that actually had that cut and paste - I would personally love to see it anywhere but here, but I seriously doubt that it exists anyplace else but the GFY echo chamber.

Name:	johndoe -	Reply
Subject:	It's Spelled "Reuters"
Date:	11/27/2019 3:06:53 PM

You're welcome.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Response from Rueters is wrong
Date:	11/27/2019 3:11:10 PM

Yeah, I looked and could not find anything from Rueters explaining this particular poll.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	"Reuters" RESPONSE
Date:	11/27/2019 5:52:01 PM (updated 11/27/2019 5:55:04 PM)

What I posted is an email I received from Reuthers in response to my email to them...

I am on a Forum and one of the members posted the following…Why don’t you use an equal number of each???  Is he correct on the validity? Thanks.

"This particular outlier in growing support for impeachment has one little problem.....at the bottom and buried in the text it revealed its sample breakdown from it's ~1,100 participants: 528 Democrats, 394 Republicans, and 111 Independents.  In other words they polled more Democrats than Republicans and Independents combined.  Did the same stupid thing in 2016 when they concluded Hillary was going to crush Trump.  So why do they do this?  Simple answer is that polls are not used to accurately gauge sentiment, it's to influence it and make news.  Which is why these faulty polls get wall to wall coverage when others that say something they don't like get ignored.  And these numbers get included by the aggregators like RCP or 528 thereby skewing the results away from reality.  And of course 8 in 10 Democrats favored impeachment.....what a shocker.”

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	"Reuters" RESPONSE
Date:	12/2/2019 8:24:28 AM

What I posted is an email I received from Reuthers in response to my email to them...

I call Bull Schiff.