Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	The original Imperial College study craters
Date:	3/26/2020 3:18:48 PM

Turns out the much ballyhooed and much used study projecting 500,000 deaths in the UK and 2.2M in the U.S. is now admitting his numbers were wildly wrong.  He is now projecting 20,000 deaths in the UK.  Says he was faulty in his assumptions and now says all will be well.  Plenty of hospital beds, ICU beds, ventilators.  Also said that most of the deaths were people that likely would have died due to other preexisting conditions within the next year.  Let's hope his model likewise craters for his U.S. prediction.

Either way, it is a cautionary tale that we should be careful about setting public policy based on modeling early on in a pandemic.  In fact, we should take all models with a grain of salt because they can be easily manipulated to fit the author's preconceived notions or agenda and are meant to influence public policy as opposed to inform it.  And as is always the case, the lie gets around the world before the truth even gets its shoes on.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Wow
Date:	3/26/2020 3:30:59 PM (updated 3/26/2020 3:36:57 PM)

I feel so much better.  Assuming his forecast for the US was subject to the same errors by using a bit of 4th grade ''rifmatick'' that translate to only 107,000 dead in the US!  Great news....thanks MM!

BTW:  Pleas provide a source...a credible source.

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	Wow
Date:	3/26/2020 5:20:14 PM

Gee Archie, lets not speak out of both sides of our mouth.  A few threads ago when discussing the H1N1 pandemic, you were comfortable with the Obama/Biden response; 14k deaths caused by the H1N1 was not "extremely" deadly in your words (despite those deaths occuring in the young and middle age populations). Using your logic, I could accept 107K deaths because had Trump not acted when he did, we could have been looking at 1mil.   Since we probably won't reach that mortality number that you warned about, is this virus also "not extremely deadly"?  Just trying to sort out your cut-off point for what you might call extemely deadly and what you accept as nuisance mortality. 

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Wow you are crazy
Date:	3/26/2020 5:32:16 PM

Let me get this straight,  losing only 93,000 more a virus under Trump than we did under Obama is OK with you?

Since MM believes in ignoring the truth maybe you can tell me wher to find a credible source for MM's claim.  I sure can't.  I did find that the author of the study has become infected with Covid-19.

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	Wow you are crazy
Date:	3/26/2020 5:57:46 PM

No Archie, I have a serious problem with your comfort level with the H1N1 deaths.  Lets look at actual lost years of life, memories, potential families, graduations, marriages, children and grandchildren when a virus attacks a younger subset of population than that lost when a virus targets predominantly senior citizens with co-morbidities.  14k vs 107K vs 1mill are equally horrible in my book Archie for viral pandemics.  Obama and Biden made just as many if not more serious mistakes with their handling of the H1N1, and they get a pass. Biden does not get asked 1 single question about his piss poor effort with the H1N1, yet Trump and his team get vilified day after day by the MSM, Dem politicians, Biden and the sheeple of the Dem party.  Why you don't hold your leaders to the same standards that you want others to achieve is quite simple to answer.  Your leaders are dumbasses who look at who they have to impress and realize that very little is required because your vote is a given every four years.    

You need this forum Archie because living in the ATL doesn't  make you think like this. 

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	ARCH-DOUBTING-IDIOT
Date:	3/26/2020 6:24:40 PM

Tune in to Trump’s press conference right now...the docs are discussing the screw up....right now!

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	ARCH-DOUBTING-IDIOT
Date:	3/26/2020 6:26:24 PM

Better go to Fox News....the liberal krap media will deep-6 the info!!

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Wow you are crazy
Date:	3/26/2020 8:20:12 PM

"Your leaders are dumbasses"....CRD you are letting Archie control you. No need for name calling...be a man and disagree without resorting to the "dumbass" chit. You sound like WIX Jr.

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	GOOF-IDIOT
Date:	3/26/2020 8:34:28 PM

And I’m the name caller..........WIX-BIGOT.  You better find a church open somewhere....you need some help!!!

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	CRD
Date:	3/27/2020 12:31:27 AM (updated 3/27/2020 12:37:57 AM)

I have a serious problem with you lying by saying I have a lack of concern that 14,000 out of 60 million infected who died from H1N1 and with your complete lack of concern that the near certainty that more than that will die from COVID -19 even though far fewer are are likely to be infected.  Yes I have a problem with that but it pales compared to the outrage I feel that your concern with the 14,000 appears to be completely based on the fact those death occured while Barack Obama was in the White House and Joe Biden was somehow to blame and that the reason for you obvious and complete lack of concern with ever those who have already and will die from COVID-19 is because they occured under the administration of a raving uncaring idiot that just happens to be a Republican! Friend you are disturbed.  If you are an MD l'm surprised nobody has initiated whatever measures are required to yank your license to practice because it is very doubtful you are living up to the oath of Hippocrates!!

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	Wow you are crazy
Date:	3/27/2020 9:48:16 AM

So sayeth the man who who for years screached mueller time!!!!!  Very honest and trustwory fisherman.  I think his last fish he caught from Lake Martin was supposed to be the whale that ate Jonah.

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	CRD
Date:	3/27/2020 10:52:19 AM

Archie,  as you so frequently and unashamedly tell members of this forum, "truth hurts".  Yes it sure does.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	The truth some time does hurt,
Date:	3/27/2020 12:51:52 PM (updated 3/27/2020 12:55:50 PM)

thnakfully telling the truth does not, but if it did you would still have nothing to fear!