Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/13/2020 4:38:23 PM

Interesting data comparing the cases and deaths in Sweden who have done nothing to quarantine and the U.S., which has pretty much shut down it's economy.  Not sure what to make of it but I don't see a significant difference between the two.  Sweden does seem to be more up and down (i.e., higher variability).  Not sure about their testing or how they decide on Wuhan virus deaths.

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/13/2020 4:55:41 PM

Sweden is a tiny country compared to the U.S.  There is no comparison.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/13/2020 5:31:58 PM

Of course there is.  It's not about the absolute numbers, it is about the trends of the bell curve.  I thought this would be obvious but apparently not.  One would think that if the restrictions were effective then you would see a shorter and flatter bell curve. And those countries without similar restrictions would see a rapid spike in cases and deaths and a worst case outcome as we saw in the earliest models.  That has not happened in Sweden any more than it has in the U.S. or UK.  Nor has it happened in states like Oklahoma where there has been no shelter in place EO.  I find that interesting but it will be a long time before we find out whether it is a coincidence or not.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/13/2020 7:09:53 PM

SWEDEN 4/13

10,000 Cases 1% of population

900 Deaths 10% of cases

10,000,000 Total Population

USA 4/13

585,000 Cases 1.8% of population

23,500 Deaths 5% of cases

330,000,000 Total Population

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/13/2020 7:55:22 PM

Dimokraps love to compare US stats with Scandinavian countries, which is ridiculous because demographics are very different.  Take a look at demographics and you will see no relation to the stats at all.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/13/2020 8:27:54 PM (updated 4/13/2020 8:28:21 PM)

Tell that to Dimokrap Martini......WIX, surprise us and post something at least half intelligent. You keep batting zero. LOL

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	GOOF-IDIOT
Date:	4/13/2020 9:54:53 PM

Just trying to enlighten with facts.!!  Dimokrap tactics are sickening...

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/14/2020 8:20:22 AM

Wix, my commentary is very specific to the shape and duration of the virus bell curve.  That happens regardless of population numbers.  My observation is this, extreme measures were taken in the U.S. and none were taken in Sweden.  One would think that if the extreme measures taken here were actually effective our bell curve would be shorter and flatter than Sweden.  There doesn't seem to be a significant difference between the two.  That's the extent of my observation.  Some time in the future we may learn that the significant harm done to our economy through all the shut down orders may in fact have had little impact on the spread of the virus.  Then again, maybe not.....we shall see.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/14/2020 8:35:57 AM

A little math error.  10K cases in Sweden is actually 0.1% and 585K cases in the U.S. is actually 0.18%.  And 900 deaths in Sweden is 9% and 23,500 deaths in the U.S. is 4%.  So Sweden has fewer confirmed cases per their population than the U.S. but more deaths.  Having said that last part, those are not the important numbers.  I have no idea how many tests Sweden has done per million of population compared to the U.S.  Fewer tests will inflate the mortality number which is why health orgs like CDC use an estimate of the total cases.  Sweden has 0.01% cases per million in population and the U.S. has the exact same number of cases per million.  One would expect Sweden to have far more cases per million population than the U.S. given they have taken no measures like social distancing or closing down their economy.  They certainly have more deaths per million in population which is interesting. May be due to an older population, more pre-existing conditions, etc.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Here's an example of what I mean
Date:	4/14/2020 8:57:44 AM

Below is a model that compares cases with and without restrictions.  All the models showed a very sharp and significantly larger peak in the bell curve.  The higher peak is what you would expect with Sweden as they've taken no measures and the lower peak would be what you would expect in the U.S. where measures have been taken.  That is clearly not happening which makes me wonder whether shutting down the economy changed anything.

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Here's an example of what I mean
Date:	4/14/2020 9:11:27 AM

I see your point, but can it taken into account lifestyle differences?  I do see pictures of Swedes wearing masks.  But are they as outgoing as Americans?  Do they go out as much as we do?  I don't know.  Maybe they are just luckier than us.

Name:	lucky67 -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/14/2020 9:23:15 AM

unless im mistaken Sweden doesnt have a N.Y. , Chicago, L.A. Hong Cong , London, Paris, Rome  size city ; so density should be figured in

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Here's an example of what I mean
Date:	4/14/2020 9:27:30 AM

All could be the case or it could be some other factors.  Another interesting analysis below.  They evaluated how quickly a state instituted stay at home orders and their death rate.  One would think that the more quickly they instituted stay at home orders and closing of businesses would have fewer deaths.  There is zero correlation between the two which is likewise another interesting data point.  Again, could be other factors that influence this but you would think that there would be some correlation when there is none.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/14/2020 9:39:23 AM

No doubt that's one factor.  Would be interesting to see what is happening in Stockholm on a population basis compared to NYC.  Stockholm has around 1.6M versus 8M in NYC.  Can't find the data to compare the two cities on a population basis.

Name:	Rich -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/14/2020 10:29:52 AM

NYC population density appears to be .000058 per square mile, Stockhlom looks like .000045 per square mile but I think public transportation may be more of a determining factor.

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	MM
Date:	4/14/2020 10:33:34 AM

MM, my comments were made to call attention to the fact that one cannot examine the statistics of a Scandinavian country and compare that with USA stats without looking at the demographics of each country.  Sweden is a very homogenous country racially, income, and mediocre health care wise, while the US is very diverse in each of those categories.  Dimokraps love to compare the US to Scandinavian countries in an effort to convince their idiot voters that Republicans are doing everything wrong.  Want to compare these two countries, then only use stats for whites when comparing, so you can see apples vs apples.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	MM
Date:	4/14/2020 12:47:13 PM

No, I get your point completely.  And I agree that many of the comparisons with Scandanvian countries are faulty as this one may be as well.  I tried not to be too definitive in my comparison with Sweden.  I do think it is still interesting and may be one of many data points that demonstrate that the measures taken to date may in fact have done little to impact the curve.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/14/2020 1:32:11 PM

Haven't been to Stockholm but have been to a number of Scandanavian major cities and all of them have very significant public transportation use.  Cars and the fuel to run them are expensive, parking is very costly (if you can find it) and they are not really set up well for auto traffic.  Would be interesting to see the comparison but I'm betting there isn't a lot of difference between the two cities when it comes to use of public transportation.  In fact, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see that Stockholm residents and visitors use it more than in NYC.

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	Alex City VA Nursing Home example
Date:	4/14/2020 2:40:24 PM

Example of lack of control just was reported in Alex City.  The VA Nursing Home there just announced 2 patients have died, 25 patients have tested positive and 18 employees are positive.  That’s a sad example of close living.  We could have all faced a similar result without spacing and control.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Alex City VA Nursing Home example
Date:	4/14/2020 2:53:22 PM

Yep.  The question is whether social distancing and personal hygiene could accomplish the same thing as sending everyone home.  My office was filled with people for weeks while the virus was around with no one getting infected.  We practiced social distancing and washed hands, etc.  But more to the point, a nursing home necessariy involves close personal contact to take care of residents, including contact with bodily fluids.  Such is not the case in the vast majority of businesses.

Name:	Rich -	Reply
Subject:	Sweden versus U.S.
Date:	4/14/2020 5:17:05 PM

I have not been there but thats intersting, I wouldn't have guessed they had that much public transportation. The more telling comparison may end up being the 8 states that have not bought into the complete shutdown. The situation in South Dakota that is being touted as a faiure would have happened in any state as the meat packing plants all around the nation are considered essencial and open. The bell curve you posted is probably the best example that we didn't gain that much by shutting down the country when all is said and done.