Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Bad news for leftists just keeps coming
Date:	5/18/2020 4:15:50 PM (updated 5/18/2020 4:25:25 PM)

Preliminary results from the Moderna vaccine and other alternatives have been promising.  Goofy's Warp Speed initiative is in full swing and even worse news is below.  Despite a significant increase in testing, nationwide the number of cases continue to decline as does the rate of deaths.  And yes, when you hear comments about the increase in cases in states like Texas it is indeed a false claim.  Testing goes way up and you are going to have more positive detections.  Does not mean that it is getting worse.  In fact, when you see the graph below it is even better than the actual numbers show.  Also, look at the second chart with a trendline on the deaths.  No guarantee it will continue but there is no doubt it is vastly better despite the false reporting of deaths as having come from the Wuhan virus.  Good news for America....bad news for TDS sufferers.  

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Bad news for leftists just keeps coming
Date:	5/18/2020 4:48:47 PM

You have a warped mind but then you support Lying Don The Con.  Just hope the tests continue to give positive results. Only 45 are part of the test.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Bad news for leftists just keeps coming
Date:	5/18/2020 5:10:21 PM

No doubt the Moderna vaccine has a long way to go.  Apparently they are adding 60 more to the trial on the older side.  Also, just saw that one of the members of the ad hoc vaccine task force has stock options in that company that went up in value by $3M.  He better hope they are the real deal or he will be sent packing.  That's the problem with including people from industry.  Whether they are the right person or have the right knowledge they will be accused of self dealing.  But this is just what is happening in the U.S.  Lots of excellent work is happening worldwide to find treatment options that work as well as vaccines.  As for me, I am more optimistic about the treatment side than the vaccine given that we have lots of viruses that we have known about for decades with no vaccine.  And we all know that every year people get the flu shot but tens of thousand still die from the flu, many because it is a different strain than in the vaccine.

Name:	PTClakefan -	Reply
Subject:	Bad news for leftists just keeps coming
Date:	5/18/2020 5:59:29 PM

It would be most helpful to know the ratio of confirmed cases to number of tests performed in a given state over a set period of time to truly know whether the virus is increasing, leveling off or decreasing.  I haven't seen this sort of data, but it surely must be tracked in that manner.  Common sense would suggest that if you are now testing a significantly larger portion of the population, you are going to have more "cases" even though in reality the infection "rate" may be declining.  Just stating the number of "confirmed cases" is a very misleading data point, IMHO.  Likewise with the Covid-19 death rate.  Given the varying degrees of interpretation by doctors and medical examiners as to what constitutes a Covid-19 death, that data, to me, seems almost usless. 

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Bad news for leftists just keeps coming
Date:	5/18/2020 8:53:17 PM

Initially, one needed a prescription to get a test. I assume many of those tested had symptoms and the Dr ordered the test. The percent of test to positive would be high. Now, where I live you can drive up and get a test without a prescription. I assume the percent is lower. Also,  number of positive certainly should be lower since we have been staying at home.

Initially, I agreed with CT and thought percent would be the more critical number. Now, I look locally and see more tests but expect a lower percent since anyone can get a test but maybe a rise in total positive since more are being tested.

The real test will be as we open up.  Let's hope those states that do open have good results. We can't keep up this closed environment and stay sane. Jobs and income are what drive this country.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Georgia cases and testing
Date:	5/19/2020 8:11:19 AM

No commentary needed.  I suspect if our rate of testing was much lower we would see even fewer cases.  

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Bad news for leftists just keeps coming
Date:	5/19/2020 8:15:02 AM (updated 5/19/2020 8:20:21 AM)

See below for an answer to your question in Georgia.  Significantly more testing with no increase in positive cases means a much lower percentage.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Georgia cases and testing
Date:	5/19/2020 8:35:41 AM (updated 5/19/2020 8:39:03 AM)

Can't read your chart. The key will be what happens over the next month as we reopen.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Didn't copy well
Date:	5/19/2020 8:53:16 AM (updated 5/19/2020 8:55:17 AM)

Orange line is confirmed cases.  Blue line is number of tests.  Dashed line is a projected number of actual infections and the shading is the uncertainty on estimated total number of cases. 

As for how long before we know, estimates range from two weeks to a month so I agree that we are still in a wait and see mode which is why I've been careful to say "so far". But we were told to expect an almost immediate increase in the number of cases.  I never believed that because many states that didn't take the same draconian measures saw very similar curves as those that did and in many cases were much better.

One thing that is interesting though regardless of the timing issue is that the number of confirmed cases has not gone up even with a very significant increase in testing.  That is surprising and makes me wonder if the Wuhan virus is as contagious as the so-called experts continue to tell us.  Time will tell....but so far so good and I am really hoping the naysayers are wrong.