Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Let the insanity begin!
Date:	11/3/2020 8:17:26 AM (updated 11/3/2020 8:24:09 AM)

I write an internal company blog for my employees and I titled it "Happy Election Day".  I say happy because at least we will be done with the political ads and can start focusing on the hand wringing, gnashing of teeth, recriminations on one side and joy on the other.  I have no prediction as to what will happen today because I think all the turnout models are invalid because this is such a unique election cycle with record high early and absentee voting and election day turnout. Regardless of the outcome, greater participation in this representative republic is a good thing.

So many questions.  Will the youth vote turn out in droves for Biden as they seem to predict every election?  Will the 30% black approval of Trump translate into votes?  Will seniors and suburban college-educated women break for Biden?  Will the Hispanic vote move even more toward Trump or remain reliably Democrat?  Frankly, my hope is it is an electoral college blowout either way so we don't have months of legal wrangling.  One interesting data point.  Hugh Hewitt's show this morning was only taking calls from voters who didn't vote for Trump last time.  Obviously they all were voting for Trump but what was interesting was the demographics.  Some Republicans, some Independents and some Democrats.  What was interesting was he asked them why the switch.  Common themes were the Russia hoax, the media bias, Democrats have gone too far left, Trump kept his campaign promises, disgust with the Swamp, the strong economy before the Wuhan virus, etc.  Why that is interesting is these are the themes the campaign focused on and they are apparently resonating with some people.  And that's just the Presidential election.

Lots of very close Senate races that will determine which party controls it.  The ones to watch I think are Maine, Iowa, Colorado, Michigan and NC.  And of course given the changing political landscape in Georgia it's possible Perdue could lose to Ossoff.  For sure our other Senate seat is headed to a runoff because there's no way any of them will get over 50%.  Frankly the only one with a chance is the Democrat but I've never seen him polling above the mid-40's.  I also think Tuberville will unseat Jones.  He just isn't a good fit for Alabama and only won because of who he ran against last time.  It's all about the candidate folks.....good ones win, bad ones lose.

We should see a shift in the House one way or the other but I will be surprised if they pick up seats and shocked beyond belief if the GOP regains control.  It just isn't gonna happen.

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	Let the insanity begin!
Date:	11/3/2020 8:39:43 AM

Drove by my polling place this morning on way to work - I will vote later today.  Line was over 3/4 mile long at 6:30.

4 years ago @ 4pm when I got there the line was probably only a few hundred yards long - hopefully it is less then a few hours/miles long when I get there this afternoon or I may have to have grubhub or pizza delivered to me in line if it looks like we are still in line past midnight.

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Let the insanity begin!
Date:	11/3/2020 8:45:42 AM

Yep, the big day is here.  Let the games begin!!  A friend of mine is the Chairman of the Republican Party in VA.  For the first time, legal teams are being dispatched to polls in my old county and the adjoining county for the first time.  That's what a Democratic governor will get you.  

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	Let the insanity begin!
Date:	11/3/2020 9:15:11 AM

I'm with you for no more ads and somebody win BIG and get it over 

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Let the insanity begin!
Date:	11/3/2020 10:58:24 AM

I've got a gut feeling that Trump is going to win.  Even the liberal leaning media didn't seem as sure of a Biden win this morning.  

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	Let the insanity begin!
Date:	11/3/2020 11:10:25 AM

I just dont have a feel.  Both Axelrod and Carville were concerned last night about black support for Trump.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Let the insanity begin!
Date:	11/3/2020 2:26:41 PM

Not happy, but I see a Trump victory.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Let the insanity begin!
Date:	11/3/2020 2:50:29 PM

Seems you are not alone.  Apparently the Biden campaign is already out there talking about how they can still get to 270 without PA and FL.  I suppose it's possible but it will be razor thin if they lose both those states. 

All the closing polls make me want to puke.  After months of telling us that Biden had double digit leads it's suddenly a toss up?!?!?  They are useless garbage.  And they do the Democrats no favors.  All they do is motivate Republicans and make Democrat voters, particularly younger voters, to not think they need to show up.  Combine that with low enthusiasm for Biden and high levels of enthusiasm for Trump from their respective bases.

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	Let the insanity begin!
Date:	11/3/2020 2:51:16 PM

link

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	Let the insanity begin!
Date:	11/3/2020 4:03:00 PM

I tend to think that a lot of details have come out in the last few days about Biden's sneaky tax increases.  The markets are doing real well today, which says to me that investors see a Trump win.  

Also you know I have no faith in polls.  It depends on who you ask and how you word the questions.  I think the media has been trying to show that Biden had a huge lead, but the truth was, most of his leads were within the margin of error.  We won't know until all those absentee votes are counted.  I think the majority of people that support Trump don't necessarily participate in polls..

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Let the insanity begin!
Date:	11/3/2020 5:08:27 PM (updated 11/3/2020 5:10:55 PM)

I see the market being up due to an expected Biden win and a huge stimulus to help the economy. Once again, I don't believe the polls and expect a Trump win. Imagine the next 4 years if Trump wins and the Dems take the Senate and control the House. Gee, I will be lost without TDS.

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	Let the insanity begin!
Date:	11/5/2020 8:00:40 AM

You are lost with or without your TDS