Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Well it looks as if I was wrong CRD
Date:	12/1/2020 11:23:29 PM (updated 12/1/2020 11:27:15 PM)

today a little over 198,000 Americans were positive for COVID a bit over 2500 died.  That is only a 1.26% fatality rate at least today which is certainly less than the historic average of 2% which I pointed out earlier.  Today at least I am wrong.  Of course 1.26% is a lot closer to 2% average I calculate than the 0.2% you claim.  I'm wrong but, well you are wronger.

BTW: I'm just a dumb architect and not a smart doctor like you, but almost 200,000 cases and over 2500 corpses seems like a pretty serious problem to me.  I suspect most Americans and even more doctors agree with me on this one.

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	Well it looks as if I was wrong CRD
Date:	12/2/2020 7:41:29 AM

Archie Archie Archie.   Do you have any math skills.

Let's test:  if 2000 people test positive today and 2000 die what is the fatality rate for covid.

Hint:  are these the same 2000 people?    Hint: no

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	Well it looks as if I was wrong CRD
Date:	12/2/2020 8:23:48 AM (updated 12/2/2020 9:15:09 AM)

According to Andrew Bostom, in early October there were 70K "cases" of COVID documented in over 50 colleges and universities open for in person business in the US.   There were 3 hospitalizations and 0 deaths.  Serious, yes to those in the vulnerable category due to age and comorbidities.  I have repeatedly stated this.  OTOH,   Crisis.....absolutely not.  

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Apples and oranges
Date:	12/2/2020 8:52:57 AM (updated 12/2/2020 8:54:59 AM)

We are not talking about a daily fatality rate but the average long term fatality rate.  You apparently don't understand math very well.

If a cruise ship with 2000 souls on board sinks and there are no survivors then the fatality rate of that particular ship is 100%.

If a cruise line has 10 ships at sea with each carrying 2000 passangers and 2 sink with the loss of 50% (1000) of the souls on each ship die then the same number of people (2000) have died but the fatality rate for the company is only 10%.

It ain't rocket science...if to date, 13,700,000 have a disease and 270,000 of them have died, then to date, the death rate is about 2%.  That does not mean 2% of those infected every day will die every day, it does mean that so far the disease has killed 2% of those who were infected.  Only when the last case is reported and the last victim mourned can we know what the final fatality rate was.

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	Apples and oranges
Date:	12/2/2020 9:03:07 AM

You, my idiot my apple my orange, are the one who divided  2500 by 198000 to get 1.26 percent.

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	Apples and oranges
Date:	12/2/2020 9:12:56 AM

For those interested in an accurate discussion COVID CFR and IFR and not Archie's opinion, please reference my comments in a previous thread.  Archie, did you read my suggested scientific paper?  I doubt it, because eveidently you still do not see the flaw in your approach.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Uhhh...perhaps Einstein can show me my error?
Date:	12/2/2020 9:44:34 AM

2500 = 1.26% of 198,000 does it not (YESTERDAY 2500 died which was, as a percentage, 1.26 of that days infection rate of 198,000...it does not mean that 1.26% of the peoplw who tested positive yesterday died yesterday and I did not claim such)

270,000 = 2% of 13,700,000 does it not (Since the START of this scourge 270,000 Americans have died and 13,700,000 have been infected, do you diasgree with what I do claim...that to date 2% of those infected have died?)

I am thankful that over the last 10 months the overall death rate has gradually gone down from 6% to 4% to 3% and still is trending lower as we learn more about COVID and how toprotect ourselves from us, but it is still higher than it would be had the leadership of this nation actually lead.

If the above is not the math you learned then maybe you can teach me how you do it your ''new math'' way.

Name:	lakngulf -	Reply
Subject:	Uhhh...perhaps Einstein can show me my error?
Date:	12/2/2020 10:31:52 AM

The issue,  einstein,  is to equate a daily calc with fatality rate.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Uhhh...Please re-read the first post above
Date:	12/2/2020 7:20:00 PM

and I think if you are open to reality and truth you will see that what you claim is exactly the opposite of what I did.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	CRD
Date:	12/2/2020 11:10:28 PM (updated 12/2/2020 11:12:05 PM)

At what point will if become a crisis in the USA?

United States COVID-19 Statistics Updated Dec 1, 2020 @ 2:05am EST Population 330,756,000 Cases 13,541,224 Total 4.09% Per Capita. Deaths 268,045 Total 0.081% Per Capita. New Cases 3 December 1 0% Growth. Yesterday there were 157,901 new confirmed* cases, 81,289 recoveries, 1,172 deaths. 

CRISIS OR NO CRISIS

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	UPDATE
Date:	12/3/2020 8:25:06 AM

Yesterday 205,000* new infections, 2770 deaths (that's one World Trade Center in one day)

So CRD are you going to answer GF's question?

* Do any of you remember the press conference last spring when DR's Redfield, Birx and Fauci said it would be worse in the fall and noted virologist Donald trump said they were all wrong and that it was going to just disappear.  CRD, do you put your politics above your Hippocratic oath...just wondering?

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	CRD
Date:	12/3/2020 10:18:07 AM

If a vaccine is not a couple of weeks away from distribution (frankly quite an accomplishment that Trump gets no credit for, but the private/gov't partnership in getting this vaccine to the market in such record time is indeed astounding) and no hospital beds are available for admission of non-covid patients.  If the survival rate drops below 97% for any age grouping.  If we fail to keep learning more about this virus on a daily basis.  And if you and Archie would have read the article that I previously referenced, you would have read that the actual seroprevalence of the virus, ie, those who actually have been infected but had little to no symptoms, is 6-24 times the infection number that Archie has been spouting for months.  Hence the denominator in Archie's calculation is beyond erroneous.  It is a lay person's understanding, as is what does and does not qualify for a healthcare crisis definition.  

But I forgive you both for not being able to understand and critically read the literature, I just try to break it down for you in simple terms.  

You are welcome. 

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Hummm?
Date:	12/3/2020 10:59:22 AM (updated 12/3/2020 11:05:15 AM)

More 4th grade math...if the survival rate drops under 97% doesn’t that mean that if the infection rate continues at 200,000 +/- a day we could eventually face a minimum of 6000 deaths a day (3-9/11’s every day).  I’m so happy 5800 deaths a day is not crisis territory! You said it CRD, not me! Dr Redfield mentioned a total death number by spring which would exceed that of the 1918 epidemic...yeah yeah,l know we now have 3 times the population so no problem.

New update the 2777 dead Tuesday was exceeded by over 3000 dead yesterday.

CRD, isn’t one of the major tenants of your Hippocratic oath to “do no harm?” or was it “Do no harm to Donald Trump”?

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	Hummm?
Date:	12/3/2020 11:15:23 AM

Archie, before you offer your lay comments, please provide to all of us the known COVID survival rates for various age demographics.  What is the lowest number and for what age demographic? 

For the least vulnerable, the number is over 99%.  If you would have read the article I referenced, you also would have understood the IFR's and CFR's vary according to age, ethnicity, hospital resources etc.  If you continue to offer your assinine commentary without accuracy, again, you do yourself no favors here.   I was quoting the lowest rate as I recall the CDC data, not referencing an overall rate, which is still 0.2%.

Please read the paper by Havers et al for heaven's sake. 

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	please stop the BS
Date:	12/3/2020 11:26:37 AM (updated 12/3/2020 11:32:03 AM)

and admit what is becoming more and more obvious from you run-on posts...this thing is a lot worse than you ever thought it would be!  You just KNEW like Trump that this would just “disappear like magic”!  Well it didn’t and we now have 3000 people dying a day and I don’t give a rat’s azz whether the corpse is a 5 year old in perfect health or 95 year old with diabetes, asthma and hypertension it’s still a corpse and 3000 (say again, a 9/11 every day) of them a day is a crisis and you are too proud and/or politically blinded to admit it.

Please get off your politically motivated high horse and your face out of the technical journals and face the reality that has become the day to day existence  of the common citizens of this great nation.

Name:	Lifer -	Reply
Subject:	please stop the idiocy archie
Date:	12/3/2020 12:08:16 PM

Since corpses is all that seems to matter to you please tell us how many babies were aborted in the US yesterday?  Day before?  I don't know the number and not gonna look it up, but I bet it is over 3000, yet not a peep out of you for all those corpses (that get chopped up in pieces and sold to the highest bidder boot).  Thats fine by you because PP supports dems.

And Doc, you give him way to much credit.  Even if he would read it he doesn't have the intelectual capacity to understand it, which is why I didn't read it.  Plus why would I, I beleive you and dont feel compelled to 'fact check' you...lol.  I mean didn't he tell you you could take your IFR's and CFR's and stuff 'em in a pipe and smoke them, or some such juvenille statement.

This thread reminds me of the old adage I know you are familiar with, Never argue with idiots, they tend to drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.  

Name:	CRD -	Reply
Subject:	please stop the idiocy archie
Date:	12/3/2020 12:23:12 PM

Your points are salient and important.  Be careful, don't extend your posts beyond the Archie prescribed word limit, the thought police are watching.  As I stated earlier, my effort is not necessarily to banter with Archie, but to use Archie's commentary as ammunition to help the others on the forum get a better understanding of what are real facts.  For that, I thank Archie for his continued support.