I have my picks tied to the sparks flying on the LM Off-Topic forum. First five games picked based on the latest poll numbers on Obama's approval rating. For the next ten, if the home team is favored by more than twenty and the dems are making more sense than the repubs then I go with the underdog. The final games are based off the number of "cut n paste" and links provided to support a cause. Finally, the tie breaker is a formula based on blood pressure readings of Archie and Water-Watcher (aka pot and kettle) divided by the number of really "off topic" posts by Catboat. I like my chances this year.
As I recall, I was bringing up the rear in the beginning last year too. Almost gave it up at the end too. I'm shooting for a better start in the opening round myself. Good Luck!