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Name:
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waterph
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Subject:
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Lake Level
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Date:
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9/12/2007 9:41:47 AM
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Deepwater
Excellent letter!!. Needless to say, your letter will generate additional interest from other readers of this forum.
Based on water levels published in this forum, I calculated the following water level changes using a 30 day basis.
March 1 - April 2, 2007, +2.1 feet
April 2 - May 1, 2007, +1.1 feet
May 1 - June 4, 2007, -0.9 feet
June 4 - June 30, 2007, -3.2 feet
June 30 - July 31, 2007, -3.1 feet
July 31 - August 31, 2007, -5.5 feet
Aug 31 - Sept 30, 2007, -4.9 feet (projected change based on -1.8 feet thru Sept 11)
Four questions surface - (1) Will the electricity production rate for January - June, 2007, on a monthly basis, be significantly different from June thru Sept 11, 2007 (157.5 MW capacity from the two turbines)? (2) Will the electricity productions rates for 2007 from the two turbines at the dam be significantly different from 2006 and 2005? (3) Will water releases for navigation be different for these same periods? and (4) what are the differences in rainfall for these three years for the period June through September?
Can the 2007 changes in lake level of 507.1 feet on June 4 and 493.5 feet on Sept 11 (total of 13.5 feet) be supported with the 0.7 feet/30 days factor for navigation and a worse case change of 1.0 feet/30 days factor for draught? These two factors would suggest a level change of 5.1 feet for June - August, 2007, and would place the September theoretical lake level at 502 feet. Can anyone postulate where the other 8.5 feet change is coming from? Could it possibly be that the other 8.5 feet is a controlled water release from the lake to support the Gorgas plant in lieu of cooling towers!!
I also looked at lake levels for Jan - June of 2005, 2006, and 2007 and calculated the following averages for starting point pool levels.
2005, 506.5 feet
2006, 505.5 feet
2007, 505.6 feet
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