Claiborne Reservoir Topics: Statistics, Oct 20

Claiborne Reservoir Topics: Statistics, Oct 20 - Nov. 11, 2010

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	Name:	waterph -
	Subject:	Statistics, Oct 20 - Nov. 11, 2010
	Date:	11/11/2010 9:50:45 PM

Just ran some statistics on current water level control by APC. For this period, the Average level was 499.20 feet with a standard deviation of 0.056 feet. Three sigma is +/- 0.17 feet. Folks - This is a demonstrated control capability from 499.03 feet to 499.37 feet with 99+% confidence. I have never in the last 15 years seen this level of control on Smith Lake. What has changed to allow this level of control?

This means from a water balance perspective that water coming in via rain and flow from creeks, etc. is basically equal to water going through the turbines + losses due to evaporation + water removed by Municipalities + water released for downstream navigation. How can APC maintain this level of delicate balance? Why in the summer months is lake level moving down by 0.1 foot per day? Why is the total level dropped from 510 feet tto 499.2 feet and then for no explainable reason(s) be controlled at 499.20 +/- 0.17 feet.

I'd be interested in perspectives that will explain this sudden control capability. And Ivan, hay bales, no run off, selling water to the West, and Aliens are not part of the equation. Give me a serious answer.