Off-Topic: FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead

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	Name:	MartiniMan -
	Subject:	FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead
	Date:	10/25/2008 10:54:16 AM

I got some additional insight into the way they do their polling. Apparently they try to project turnout and then weight their polls to reflect what they anticipate will happen. That is why they have weighted the polls with so many Democrats, they expect a larger turnout. That at least makes sense to me if they are right about the turnout. One reason why voting is so important if you want McCain or Obama to win. Bush won in 2004 mostly by turnout. It is also why each party has to appeal to its base and why the media is trying to so discourage Republicans and Indendents that will vote for McCain from even coming out to the polls.

It seems that turnout for early voting has been evenly split so far so it looks like what will happen on Nov 4th in terms of turnout is crucial. I think that is why Carville said "You konow what you call a candidate that relies on the youth vote? Loser!". If the youth and black voters come out in large numbers and Republicans/Independents for McCain don't it will be a landslide.

Other messages in this thread:

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AP presidential poll: All even - MartiniMan - 10/22/2008 1:25:16 PM

AP presidential poll: All even - MrHodja - 10/22/2008 1:36:01 PM

AP presidential poll: All even - GoneFishin - 10/22/2008 1:56:32 PM

FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead - GoneFishin - 10/22/2008 2:59:08 PM

FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead - AUCATZ - 10/22/2008 3:15:46 PM

FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead - MartiniMan - 10/22/2008 3:32:42 PM

FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead - AUCATZ - 10/22/2008 3:57:44 PM

FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead - GoneFishin - 10/22/2008 4:28:29 PM

FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead - MrHodja - 10/22/2008 4:33:56 PM

FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead - 4PAR - 10/23/2008 10:53:46 AM

FOX poll Obama 9 points ahead - MartiniMan - 10/25/2008 10:54:16 AM

AP presidential poll: All even - water_watcher - 10/22/2008 2:58:05 PM

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