Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Maybe....maybe not Date:   6/10/2019 7:01:26 PM (updated 6/10/2019 7:44:00 PM)

A recession properly defined is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  So time will tell but for sure one month of job growth below expectations is a far cry from a recession.  Let's see what the revised number is and then track it for another 2 to 3 months.  For sure the specter of a trade war with China is having an impact.  The question is whether it will pay off with fairer trade with China as well as other countries.  I am not a fan of tariffs because they are paid by the consumer but nothing else has worked with China.  It's a big gamble for Trump to do this because for certain a recession will make his reelection less likely.

I would also be remiss if I didn't point out that the job news was not all that bad when taken in total.  Actual hiring in May was at a record high and there are still 1.63 million more jobs out there than applicants.  And most of the hiring was in the private sector (education, health care and construction) which is also good news. Manufacturing jobs lagged a little but they couldn't keep the torrid pace of the last year.

One would hope that Democrats are not wishing for a recession just to make it harder for Trump in 2020 but they are out there for sure.  the Fed sure thinks something is up as they are now calling for possible rate cuts.  But as I have posted before they always seem to overshoot in both directions based on whether they think there will be inflation.  So far we have had a very strong economy with no real inflation to speak of so that is also impacting their thinking.