Off-Topic: Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish
(Lake Tohopekaliga Specific)
1 messages
Updated 2/16/2011
Lakes Online Forum
84,070 messages
Updated 10/30/2024 8:48:25 AM
Lakes Online Forum
5,204 messages
Updated 9/14/2024 10:10:50 AM
(Lake Tohopekaliga Specific)
4 messages
Updated 2/16/2011
Lakes Online Forum
4,172 messages
Updated 9/9/2024 5:04:44 PM
Lakes Online Forum
4,261 messages
Updated 5/28/2024 6:31:10 AM
Lakes Online Forum
2,979 messages
Updated 6/26/2024 5:03:03 AM
Lakes Online Forum
98 messages
Updated 4/15/2024 1:00:58 AM
Lake Tohopekaliga Photo Gallery





    
Welcome, Guest Select View Mode: [ classic | beta | recent ]
Name:   MartiniMan The author of this post is registered as a member - Email Member
Subject:   Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish
Date:   3/19/2020 3:37:11 PM (updated 3/19/2020 4:02:15 PM)

So the data is in and has been examined for the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was quarantined.  Some highlights from the study:

  • Out of the 3,711 passengers only around 17% of the passengers were infected, which is about 630 passengers.
  • Out of the 630 passengers that were infected a total of 7 died which is a 1.1% mortality rate (which is skewed upward due to the age dsitribution of the passengers).
  • Of the 3,711 passengers 58% of them were over age 60.  Only 24% of the general population is over age 65.
  • The age range of those that died was from 70-80 with 6 of the 7 between 70 and 79 (which accounted for around 1/3rd of the passengers).  There were zero deaths age 69 and below which accounted for the remaining 2,000 or so passengers.
  • Approximately 50% of those infected were asymptomatic.  Those most likely to be symptomatic were in the age group 20-49.  Children under age 9 were all asymptomatic.
  • 75% of those over age 80 were not infected.

So what does this tell us?  First of all, the inflated mortality rates being discussed are faulty because they are basing them only on confirmed cases.  There are likely tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of cases that were never tested.  Secondly, while the mortality rate appears to be higher than the common influenza (which is 0.1%), it is actually lower for all age groups, including seniors.  If you adjust for the skewed ages of the passengers, which isn't easy, the mortality rate is likely on par with the common influenza if not lower  Third, despite being in an environment that is highly likely to be transmissive of any virus, 83% of the passengers were not infected.

If you were to extrapolate this to the entire population it would be a huge error in logic.  In no way are the conditions for the general population remotely similar to the close confines of a cruise ship filled with a disproportionate number of seniors.  It does explain the higher numbers in urban settings given a relatively closer proximity of the people using mass transit, etc.  However, the increasing number of cases we are seeing are a result of increased testing and in no way represents some sort of pandemic.  Don't count on the media reporting these results.  As this data becomes more widely available and as the news of potentially effective and commonly available therapies are available we will see the panic fade away and the markets to begin to recover as bsuinesses reopen and people get back to work. 

Keep calm.....chive on.  Prepare for Archie and Goofy to be depressed that more people didn't die and the economy is recovering from the media-induced panic.  And as Ilhan Omar and Gov. Cuomo recently said, President Trump is doing a fantastic job.  I agree with them.

Here is the raw data from the study.

Other messages in this thread:View Entire Thread
Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish - MartiniMan - 3/19/2020 3:37:11 PM
     Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish - phil - 3/19/2020 3:59:05 PM
     Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish - lakngulf - 3/19/2020 7:14:01 PM
     Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish - Talullahhound - 3/19/2020 8:10:27 PM
          Hound you are correct - architect - 3/19/2020 9:26:36 PM
               Hound you are correct - lakngulf - 3/19/2020 9:49:48 PM
               Are You Selectively Dense? - MrHodja - 3/19/2020 10:04:34 PM
                    And you have tunnel vision Mr H - architect - 3/19/2020 11:28:57 PM
                         And you have tunnel vision Mr H - MrHodja - 3/20/2020 7:52:11 AM
                              And you have tunnel vision Mr H - architect - 3/20/2020 8:48:13 AM
                                   And you have tunnel vision Mr H - CRD - 3/20/2020 8:57:20 AM
                                        CRD - architect - 3/20/2020 9:33:11 AM
                                             CRD - Lifer - 3/20/2020 9:53:10 AM
                                             CRD - CRD - 3/20/2020 10:18:30 AM
                                                  CRD it is hard to believe - architect - 3/20/2020 12:39:48 PM
                                                       CRD it is hard to believe - CRD - 3/20/2020 1:58:56 PM
                                                            Good for you - architect - 3/20/2020 2:18:15 PM
          Interesting data from a Wuhan virus petri dish - MartiniMan - 3/20/2020 9:00:32 AM



Quick Links
Lake Tohopekaliga News
Lake Tohopekaliga Photos
Lake Tohopekaliga Videos




About Us
Contact Us
Site Map
Search Site
Advertise With Us
   
Tohopekaliga.USLakes.info
THE LAKE TOHOPEKALIGA WEBSITE

Copyright 2024, Lakes Online
Privacy    |    Legal