Off-Topic: Some analysis of your predictions
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Name:
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MartiniMan
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Subject:
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Some analysis of your predictions
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Date:
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11/27/2012 1:12:04 PM
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Archie, I will start out by saying that I hope some of your predictions come true although I am skeptical. Some I hope do not for obvious reasons.
Well, since the number of employed has gone up about 4.5 million in the last 30 months I expect to add another 8 to 10 million in the next 49 months (150,000 to 200,000 / mo) with the rate of unemployment down to 5% to 6%. At the end of Hillary's first term it will be down to 4% or less.
MM Comment: Uh Archie, population growth adds about 175,000 to 225,000 new workers each month so under your prediction we would actually see unemployment go up. But your 4.5M number is a pure fabrication. The number of people that have left the workforce and are not even being counted in the U2 numbers far exceeds that. Real unemployment is closer to 11% and we have lost more jobs and workers in the last four years, not gained. Otherwise you being factually wrong, I hope your prediction of unemployment being down to 5%-6% actually happens by some means other than more people giving up ever finding a job. If you for some reason need references for my numbers please do a google search as it is inarguable. I suggest you start at the DLS website. Its all there for those that want to do more than read HuffnPuff Post. As far as Hillary goes she will be tough to beat given the electorate we have right now.
With the economy making a good upward jump interest will certainly go up but no where near prime at 8%. Mortgage rates will go up to 4.5% to 5%. Still lower than in the Eisenhower years.
MM Comment: While I am skeptical about the economy recovering if TOTUS continues to follow the FDR model, it would be nice. I actually think rates will be lower because of the continued weak economy and I expect another recession if tax rates go up and the fedl govt removes trillions of dollars from the economy and punishes businesses for hiring and investing.
Gasoline will be up but not over $4.50 to $5.00 depending on world demand. Our own oil output will continue to go up with North American production making us "self sufficient" by 2020 but as long as you believe in the market economy don't expect that to have an impact on domestic prices. It is a global market and if you expect Exxon to be "patriotic" and sell to Americans at $60/b when the rest of the world is willing to pay $110/b then you are even crazier than I thought.
MM Comment: I actually think oil prices could go down if the administration pursues a stronger dollar. The key to oil prices is the value of the dollar and demand. For the sake of those in the middle and lower classes lets hope gasoline returns to below $2 per gallon.
Inflation will be flat for 2013 and 2% to 3% for the next 3 years.
MM Comment: I sure hope so but a lot will depend on whether the Fed pursues more quantitative easing (ie, printing money) and the state of the economy. I actually think we should be more worried about deflation than inflation ala Japan and their lost decade.
As for the national debt...well we will know after we see what happens over the next 3 to 4 months. If the President and both parties will tell their no tax increase / no entitlement change wingnuts to take a hike then we might be able to make some progress.
MM Comment: We have a spending problem, not a revenue problem. But besides that, the GOP is the only party that has proposed meaningful entitlement reform which is the only way to correct that spending problem. I suspect that if TOTUS and Harry Reid actually propose real spending cuts (something I strongly doubt) they will find enough Republicans to sign on. Lets hope they are serious for once and actually propose something real rather than demonizing to gather up more votes. My bet is they will go for the latter and you will buy it hook, line and sinker.
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