Lake Hartwell Topics: my response

Lake Hartwell Topics

(Lake Hartwell Specific)

61 messages

Updated 5/3/2023 7:56:51 PM

Off-Topic

Lakes Online Forum

83,598 messages

Updated 4/23/2024 2:17:25 PM

Boat Maintenance

Lakes Online Forum

5,193 messages

Updated 4/3/2024 3:47:36 AM

Lake Hartwell Fishing

(Lake Hartwell Specific)

3 messages

Updated 8/24/2016 3:16:17 PM

Jokes

Lakes Online Forum

4,169 messages

Updated 4/15/2024 11:05:05 PM

Sports

Lakes Online Forum

4,260 messages

Updated 3/24/2024 9:24:45 AM

Grilling & Recipes

Lakes Online Forum

2,976 messages

Updated 3/20/2024 11:53:43 PM

Tallapoosa River Topics

Lakes Online Forum

98 messages

Updated 4/15/2024 1:00:58 AM

Forum Usage Rules

Welcome, Guest

Select View Mode: [ classic | beta | recent ]

	Name:	John C -
	Subject:	my response
	Date:	3/19/2010 8:11:45 PM

sorry for the slow reply, Wix, but I have been at the lake outside and away from the computer. I usually only check this forum once every couple of days anyway. Please never interpret my lack of response as anything but that..

As to home prices AT LAKE MARTIN dropping more, hey, who knows. There may be more of a lag than 24 or 30 months from the time numbers of sales increased to when prices increase. I don't think they will increase this year. I think it will take until 2011.

Unemployment is up, sure. But so is the stock market. I can point to a lot of macroeconomic data on either side of the argument, so therefore I don't focus on macro issues - I go micro.

The fact is, the numbers of lake homes sold have been beating the prior year **** since July of 08 ***. Not just a little bit, but by 40%. A whooping. These sales figures are undeniable facts.

Believe me, prices will follow. Just as I told people in 2006 that they could not sustain 30% gains every year, I am here to tell you, the price drops will stop and we will return to gains. Fact. The only question is when? What factors should we consider when attempting to predict? If we don't consider # of sales a factor, what do we consider? This is the same data (basically) that I used when I went on record to call the end of the seller's market. A lot of people in my industry called me a fool and couldn't believe I refused to paint a rosy picture that I didn't see. So now I am calling it the other way. Both times, based on the #s.

Does anyone remember July of 2007, or whenever the lake was like 16 feet down and it was downright depressing? I seriously wondered how long it would take to fill back up. Years, maybe. Does anyone remember that it took about 2 weeks in February of 08 to fill up?

I guess my point is, when things (home prices, stock market, water level, college football teams) are on roll (in either direction), it's hard to imagine a change. It's hard to reckon the short term reality, and that the long term results will inevitably bend to market cycles and bell curves.

My other point is that I am human and therefore imperfect, flawed, and foolish. I very well could be wrong about what will happen to prices ** in the short term ** but I know I will be right long term. If I am wrong, at least it will be based on some numbers and not witchcraft. Don't worry, I will notice that I am wrong long before anyone else, and I will be the first to point it out.