Off-Topic: What will become of the Middle East?
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Name:
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Talullahhound
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Subject:
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What will become of the Middle East?
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Date:
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2/21/2011 7:54:25 PM
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I have been watching the developments very carefully. My real concern is that it is not necessarily a natural progression from a dictatorship to democracy. There are theories that would suggest that one needs a "benevolent dictator" to help a country get to democracy.
I'm not sure I think that whatever happens in Egypt is an indication of how things will go in other countries. I'm optimistic that the apolitical democracy training that the Egyptian and Tunisian military got in US military schools will hold. It is so far.
But Libya, Yemen? Who can say? Will Saudi step in Yemen, theow them some cash, and quiet them down as they have in the past? Tonight when I was watching the news of Libya, I wondered about the Russians... Who have a lot of oil and would probably like to control even more. Will they step into the chaos? Anyone have any thoughts on that?
I suspect that Iran will end up killing a lot of their citizens to put down any thoughts of revolution. We would love to think that the people would overthrow that nut that runs the country, but even if they were successful, I suspect the Muslim Fundamentalist stronghold would just take over. I'm sure there is a radical Ayottola just waiting to step in.
There have been low key anti government uprisings going on for a number of years in Bahrain. I was there in 95, and it was going on then. The military isn't as big an influence in that country as a lot of other countries. I suspect the government will make concessions and it will die down. And we have considerable influence in Bahrain by a very large presence there.
I agree that the Kingdom, Kuwait and Jordan are okay for now.
I'm wondering about Pakistan. Very corrupt government, lots of religious furor, people that are very unhappy about US influence there.
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