Off-Topic: My conundrum about Mr. Newt and Romney

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	Name:	MartiniMan -
	Subject:	My conundrum about Mr. Newt and Romney
	Date:	12/6/2011 5:16:55 PM

Well that is definitely different than what I have sensed and I am a political junkie. Since I don't live in any of the early primary states I have not been exposed to the ads so maybe thats what I am missing.

As for the polls, Newt and the jumping around I think there are several things going on at the same time. First of all, as each of the candidates goes up and down Romney stays at around 20% plus or minus. So what I think you are really seeing is that a large percentage of Republicans are not sold on Romney and that when Bachmann loses her support it goes to Cain and not to Romney and when Cain stumbles his support goes to Newt and so on. So there is a lot of horse trading as one alternative gains traction and then stumbles for whatever reason.

Second, I think there have been way too many of these debates and each round seems to cause a groundswell change for some of the candidates (either good or bad) and that is mostly because the actual primaries are so far out that people are not really paying that close attention and just haven't made up their final minds on who they are going to support. So you are combining an undecided primary voter with the need to answer a question that maybe they aren't really ready to answer and you get volatility.

Just look at how quickly things changed for Hillary during the primary season, especially given her overwhelming numbers early on. It was really a matter of people being asked for a who well before they had really decided. She was for the most part the only game in town. I frankly think its too many debates and too much polling too early (before voters really need to decide) and as we get closer to the early primaries we should see less volatility. Time will tell.........