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	Name:	MartiniMan -
	Subject:	The problem with registered voter polls
	Date:	7/20/2012 9:31:06 AM (updated 7/20/2012 9:32:07 AM)

As I have often pointed out, the problem with polls of registered voters is that they tend to oversample Democrats. Saw a recent analysis of this and it is apparent that I was correct. Of the six most recent polls of registered voters, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by a range of 3% to 7%. This is much greater than the actual spread of registered Dems and Republicans and why these polls tend to overstate support for the Dem candidate.

Interestingly, if you adjust all these polls for this obvious imbalance they track very well with polls of likely voters. Looking at all these polls and making the adjustments indicates that Romney and TOTUS are in a dead heat. When Reagan landslided the worthless one out of office in 1980 at this point in the campaign he was 9% behind. And undecided likely voters (currently around 12%) historically break more for the opponent than the incumbent.

At the risk of repeating myself, polls are just polls and the only one that counts is that first Tuesday in November. And I still believe that Oblamer's chance of reelection is better than even. But just a word of warning to the left wingnuts, don't take too much comfort in the polls of registered voters. They simply cannot be trusted.

Other messages in this thread:

View Entire Thread

The problem with registered voter polls - MartiniMan - 7/20/2012 9:31:06 AM

Wrong again MM - Summer Lover - 7/20/2012 10:04:52 AM

I like SL's strategy - wix - 7/20/2012 11:11:53 AM

LOL - MartiniMan - 7/20/2012 12:17:24 PM

Can't be bothered - MAJ USA RET - 7/22/2012 10:00:32 AM

Can't be bothered - water_watcher - 7/22/2012 10:33:49 AM

One other comment - water_watcher - 7/22/2012 10:36:30 AM

One other comment - MAJ USA RET - 7/22/2012 11:36:13 AM

Maine for Obama - at least on the Coast - MAJ USA RET - 7/22/2012 11:42:14 AM

Maine for Obama - at least on the Coast - water_watcher - 7/22/2012 10:12:00 PM

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