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	Name:	MartiniMan -
	Subject:	But sadly flawed
	Date:	8/9/2012 7:42:50 PM

GF, I know this makes you feel better but here are some inconvenient facts about the poll. 1) It was of registered voters and not likely voters. This sample always overstates Dem support. 2) And much more damning is the oversampling of Dems. The percentage of Dems is 9% higher than Republicans which if 2010 and voter enthusiasm is any indication this is way oversampled. 3) If you look at the internals almost 15% of independents say they could switch from Obama with a much smaller percentage saying the same of Romney.

I think if you were honest you would conclude that right now Obama has a slight lead over Romney on the national vote and probably a little better off with the swing states. Considering he is the incumbant and Romeny has not spent anywhere near what Obama has in swing states I would take little comfort in the numbers. As I often state, Obama has a better than even chance of winning and Romney needs to be on his A game to make a run at the Messiah.

Other messages in this thread:

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The Fair and Balanced Poll - GoneFishin - 8/9/2012 6:23:52 PM

this is the ONLY one that matters - water_watcher - 8/9/2012 6:53:42 PM

But sadly flawed - MartiniMan - 8/9/2012 7:42:50 PM

But sadly flawed - GoneFishin - 8/9/2012 7:58:34 PM

Don't overextend here - MartiniMan - 8/10/2012 8:51:10 AM

Don't overextend here - 'splained - MAJ USA RET - 8/10/2012 9:33:40 AM

MM.....Don't overextend here - GoneFishin - 8/10/2012 9:37:09 AM

I don't care about the results - MartiniMan - 8/10/2012 9:50:13 AM

I don't care about the results YEA RIGHT - GoneFishin - 8/10/2012 12:10:09 PM

How could I comment? - MartiniMan - 8/10/2012 1:38:29 PM

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