Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Economy Date:   3/17/2015 3:29:32 PM

I am hoping the housing starts number is a result of the weather and not a trend.  As for the Fed, so far there are a lot of mixed signals on the strength of the economy.  Employment is better (even with the phony U2) although the quality of new jobs is suspect but a number of other indicators are mixed to negative.  Since there is no indication of inflation and assuming the indicators are mixed I can see the Fed holding off in the short term.  But at some point the rates are going to rise.  That is 100% certain.  And when they do there will be a 20%-30% correction in the stock market.  

Just spent some time with a major oil company client and they are of the opinon low oil prices will not be a long term thing.  Despite that they are shedding employees, slashing CapEX and OpEx spending, etc.  Down from 15 rigs to 7 in the Bakken, cut their rig count in the Gulf and have stopped exploration in the Permian basin (west Texas).  They are not alone as all the other big oil companies are likewise slashing and burning.  Back to reality for the oil industry for a ittle while anyway.  But lower oil prices really helps consumer spending, which is 2/3rds of our GDP.