Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Seasonal adjustment of December job numbers Date:   1/11/2016 4:24:29 PM

Just read an interesting article reminding me that each December BLS adds approximately 300,000+/- jobs to the December numbers to account for the cold weather.  Range of added jobs in the seasonal adjustment is between 150,000 and 350,000 but it has been a steady 300,000 for the last 6 or 7 years.  Considering it wasn't cold in December this year the best estimate is that the economy actually added about 11,000 new jobs this year and around 6,000 in December 2014.  Both these numbers are lower than prior years and are indicative of a weakening job market.  Along with the lower wages in December it appears that the pathetic recovery remains....well....pathetic.  No, you won't hear this little factoid on pmsnBS or any of the other BS's.  

What will be interesting to watch is consumer sentiment resulting from the stock market correction.  Manufacturing and rail are already in recession territory while housing and consumer spending are stable but not stellar.    Already some talk about the Fed backing away from their 25 basis point increase although some in the regional Feds are expecting further increases.  Inflation is under control for now which is very positive.  Strong dollar is killing oil and exports but good for gold.    All in all it looks like 2016 will be an up and down year but hopefully no recession unless consumers stop spending.