Name:   John C - Subject:   to JOHN C: re: Tallapoosa Property Tax Increase? Date:   3/3/2016 1:18:28 PM

Thanks for the reference to my site and my business. I appreciate it. One thing about one of the first in the nation, and still one of the few in the state, and one of (maybe) two at the lake to have sites that discuss prices and opinion openly,  is it's easy to track my opinions for the last 9 years.

My question is of sample rate. I will repeat it - how many lake parcels did you sample to make that generalization? Just yours? Or did you cherry pick some in Emerald Shores? If you just look at your own, sure, it may be overpriced. I remember talking to Ulysses about his and I agree that his was wrong. But does that mean that "the fix" is in for a whole system? That's a pretty big leap to make without hard data to back it up.

Speaking of Emerald Shores, there are a few lot owners there that have owned since 2006 or so that claimed AP was selling them at, and I quote them, "fire sale" prices. They vehemently disagreed with the list prices as being too low. From their perspective, lot prices should be higher, and therefore more in line with what the county had. They would disagree with you.

As someone that looks at tax assessments nearly every day, I can tell you that I discern no pattern. Some are high. Some are low. Some are spot on, no matter what county we are talking about. Now, maybe it's because I haven't studied a random distribution of parcels, and not properly recorded the devations. Maybe my memory is clouded by my assumptions.

Statistics- it's all about your sample pool whether we are talking real estate, politics, or cola preference. How large is it? From where did you draw your sample pool? What is your margin of error? It's  a math question. It's not a matter of my opinion or even your opinion.

Maybe you are right and there is some grand conspiracy, but without data, it's just a guess.

For instance- if I ran an ad that said, "Consumer Selected as the #1 Real estate agent at Lake Martin! 100% of People voted John Coley #1!!!"  - that would sound pretty impressive until, after some digging, you realized that my sample pool of consumers was one person. And that one person was my mom.

I could make the point that I have evidence. My mom voted me #1. I could show you her ballot. But how much weight would you give my claim?