Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Latest economic news a mixed bag Date:   7/7/2017 11:26:25 AM

Labor numbers were decent and the labor participation rate is up a bit. We are also at record employment with close to 160 million in the work force.  However, wages remain stagnant which may help control inflation but is not good news for the engine of the economy, consumer spending.  And the unemployment numbers that reflect discouraged and part time workers rose by 0.2% which is also not the best news.  

One area that is concerning is the amount of auto debt which is at all time highs.  One hiccup in the economy and the subprime portion of this debt could come crashing down which would be a repeat of 2008 (in that case it was homeowners debt).  And given that we are now at around 100 months since the last recession with an average of 57 months we are in danger of an economic slowdown.  Of course I have been saying that for the last 4 or 5 years but it will happen at some point.  Look for the Fed to continue to raise rates even in the absence of inflation.  They know they have zero room right now to respond to a downturn and need some cushion for more QE when the slowdown happens.