Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Will Trump be the GOP's Obama? Date:   3/15/2018 11:17:01 AM (updated 3/15/2018 11:19:13 AM)

This was a question I posed long ago when Trump was first elected.  As we saw with the two terms of Obama, a President can cause a huge backlash that benefits the opposing party.  The more I've seen with the special elections, most recently PA-18 which is where I grew up, the more I think the most important factor is enthusiasm.  And there's no doubt in my mind that the enthusiasm is on the side of the #resistance.

As for PA-18, a number of interesting observations.  First of all, Lamb ran pretty much as a Republican and was wise to do so.  No doubt he'll tow the party line when he votes but he ran as pro-2nd amendment, pro tax cuts, etc.  Second, while this district went for Trump in a big way it is filled with lots of cultural Democrats.  This area used to be very blue collar and very Democrat.  Third, this District has been redrawn by the PA courts and will become smaller and more heavily Democrat so you can expect Lamb to hold onto it in the fall when he has to run again.  PA-14 will be more rural and more Republican.  So for a good portion of the voters, including those in my home town, he will not be their congressman come the fall.  Fourth, both parties spent heavily in this race and Trump was all in. But the GOP likely spent more and yet they still lost.  So spending was once again not the deciding factor as we saw in the GA-6 special election.  Fifth, this was a race to replace a disgraced GOP congressman that had to resign.  Those kind of headwinds always benefit the challenger.

Any way you look at it, my guess right now is that the Democrats will gain control of the House in the fall.  I still think they'll hold the Senate but you can look forward to impeachment proceedings in the House in 2019.  Whatever Trump wants to get done he better do it in the next 8 months because after that he is going to be stymied by the House and thr stupid rules in the Senate.  And if somehow the Democrats get control of the Senate you might want to start practicing the term President Pence.