Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   MM, you buying dinner tonight? Date:   3/2/2020 5:20:49 PM

It was a good day in the markets for sure.  If tomorrow goes well I've got $200K I need to deploy. Still some work to get it back to pre-hoax valuations.  I think the reality of the coronavirus is getting out and the markets are responding accordingly.

Based on what I've been reading I think what may be happening is apparently they have looked at the COVID-19 cases in Washington and have determined that it has likely been there for weeks (if not the entire fly season) and was not recognized as anything other than the common influenza.  I am beginning to believe that the spike in cases is more a matter of them looking for that specific type, which has been here the entire time, and calling it new cases rather than an actual spike.  Around 20 to 30 million people get the flu every season and I am betting that they are just now looking specifically for this strand.  Most of the people that got it earlier are already recovered and have moved on.  So let's imagine that since the flu season started the COVID-19 strain has been here but never tested for.  Don't know about you but I've never been tested for the flu when I've had it.  Anyway, all of the sudden they start testing for this specific version and a certain percentage of cases are this strain.  The more tests, the more cases and the illusion that it is a pandemic.  Think about it, out of 20 to 30 million cases of the flu in the U.S. so far this season, we have less than 20 cases of COVID-19 but it is growing rapidly.  Why?  Because they are looking for it and I think that reality is getting out to the markets and the institutional buyers are responding by buying like crazy during this panic-induced dip.

And it also turns out that the mortality rate for COVID-19 is close to zero in  children, 0.2% in healthy adults and close to 15% in the elderly and other vulnerable individuals.  Very similar numbers to the run of the mill flu although the mortality rate for seniors is on the high side for sure.  I think they may be realizing this as well.