Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Why you can't trust polls Date:   8/17/2020 9:56:41 AM

So today we have two different polls, one from WSJ/nBS and the other from cnnBS.  And the results could not be any more starkly different.  WSJ/nBS poll has Biden up by 9 (down from 11 the last time).  Polled 900 registered voters and of course oversampled Democrats once again.  Then we have the cnnBS that shows Biden dropping like a rock and they are now tied in 15 battleground states and are at 50/46 versus Biden leading 55/41 in June.  The primary difference is the weighting of Democrats.  The cnnBS poll had it pretty evenly split between Democrats and Republicans with the rest Independents.  And then we have the Cook Report which indicated it will be a huge blue wave in November with Democrats winning the WH, House and Senate.  One consistent result between the polls is Americans trust Trump more on the economy (by a lot) and Biden on the Wuhan virus (by a lot).  Would be interesting to see if there is an October surprise with a vaccine or a jump in new cases will that weigh more heavily on how people vote than the economy.

Suffice it to say it is all over the place when it comes to polling and I suspect it will all come down to turnout.  If Biden/Harris can generate the kind of voter enthusiasm that Obama did they will most certainly win.  Or maybe a better way to put it is if the TDS is so severe it can overcome their natural ambivalence to Biden/Harris then they can win.  On the other side, if there is indeed a silent majority that are concerned about a man with dementia coupled with a hard left Senator in the WH, more riots, higher taxes, economic stagnation, failed foreign policy, etc. then Trump may prevail.