Name:   MartiniMan - Subject:   Most of the Time Date:   11/25/2020 10:37:02 AM

I long ago gave up trying to understand the stock market swings.  Most of them happen as a result of algorithms used by the big investment vehicles with inside information about what the Fed will do.  Think about it, earnings go down, unemployment goes up and markets rise because they expect more Fed action to reduce rates to stimulate the economy making stocks more attractive.  On the flip side earnings go up, unemployment goes down and the markets tank because of anticipated higher interest rates and inflation.  It's just plain crazy.  Go to Zero Hedge and there are all sorts of prognosticators of doom about the impending crash who on occasion turn out to be right.  Go to CNBC or Fox Business and it is filled with the opposite and on occasion they too turn out to be right.  

Here's the reality.  The only people making above average returns are the institutional investors that have inside information (either corporate, govt or both).  For the rest of us the stock market is a place to park long-term money so you can get your 4% post-tax return over 20 or 30 years.  And then maybe in post-retirement you switch to income producing stocks or less volatile investments to preserve capital.  If you want make a killing as an investor you have to start your own business, plan to take lots of risks, work long hours, worry and if you know how to manage cash flow you might just cash in one day.