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	Name:	John C -
	Subject:	osms- a reply
	Date:	3/14/2007 1:02:36 AM

OK - if you recall the actual numbers were 25 homes sold in December at an average of $213,716 and 29 sold in January for an average of $181,310.

To show you the sensitivity of these stats to a change in just one sale, consider:

If one of the waterfront homes (which sold on Jan 10 for $820,000) would have been closed in December, the numbers would have been 26 homes sold in December for an average of $237,034 and 28 sold in January for an average of only $158,499.

Similarly, if one of the waterfront homes sold in December (12/19/06 for $1,075,000) actually closed in January, the numbers would change to 24 homes sold in December at an average of $177,829 and 30 sold in January for an average of $211,100. Quite a difference.

My point to all this is when you have such a small market, one or two sales here or there really change the statistics for that market. If you read my email to the Outlook (in the comments section of my post on my blog) December had proportionately way more waterfront homes sold so it drove the average way up.

It's like - if someone asked you - "how did your football team play today?" and you answered "they scored 20 points." Per se, that doesn't tell you much. Naturally, the other person would wonder, how many points did the other team score? And maybe - what is your team's scoring average? The other team's points against average? The more questions you ask and answer, the clearer the picture is.

For anyone trying to sift through our market, I think it's helpful seperate sales in categories like water / nonwaterfront; deeded / leased lots; single family / condo; etc. When people ask me "how's the market?" I try to narrow my response to answer them most accurately. I almost never quote general market statistics because they could be misleading.

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