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Name:
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John C
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Subject:
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back atcha, Bob
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Date:
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8/8/2007 12:04:13 PM
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1. Great post! Very good ideas. Why not leave this comment also on my blog? I have a lot of people that read it but do not read this forum and they would benefit from your point of view.
2. Lake level effect on demand - There is nothing to "admit" here. If I thought the level was THE major effect on demand I would say that. I call em like I see em, I think everyone here will testify to that. I do think it has an effect, but in a minority role. I agree that people that are totally new to the lake, or new to the idea of buying, might take a look at the levels and think, well, it's August, let's just wait until next year. They are removed from the pipeline and quantity demanded shrinks. Since these are people that have not talked to realtors yet, I can't guess exactly. But from talking to my buyers, and talking to other realtors, I have not heard of many, if any, that are waiting due to the lake level. Price is there sitcking point. So if 2007 is about 150 waterfront sales behind 2006, I would guess and say that 50 are due to the level (33%) and the other 100 are due to prices. Obviously, that's a guess, because I am judging the motivations of people that I haven't spoken with.
3. Condo development - if you want to build a condo development, and crank the numbers, the easiest way is to find a stretch of land with lots (1,000 ft?) of waterfront that is not owned by Russell Lands or Alabama Power, and try to buy it. That's a tall order, there just aren't that many left. That's not to say that no more condos will be built: just the opposite. I can think of 2 or 3 that I have heard of right now. But when you compare these few sites to a lake that's 44,000 acres, it just isn't that much.
Now, you can also build a condo by buying up stretches of homes and getting the deeds changed, but that is a lot more expensive and a lot harder to do legally. Maybe in another 10 years the land values will go up enough to justify that amount of investment. Maybe then you will see homes being knocked down and condos going up like you do at the beach. Or, maybe you will not see that. Maybe the market won't turn and you will see a high percentage of homes like in Highlands, NC or Folly Beach, SC. It pays to look at other (more mature) second home markets to judge what might happen at the lake.
3. Atlanta - obviously, a big part of demand for the last 10 years. Trust me, it won't stop. The drought in 87 didn't stop people from Birmingham that flooded in in the 1980s, nor did the Montgomery influence stop in the 1970s. The next big market influence will be people from anywhere else. Looking at my notes, in the past 10 days I have talked to people from Texas, California, Virginia, Tennessee, Indiana, and Illinois.
I used to go eat at Kowaliga and we'd know everyone in the place. Now it's called Sinclairs and I am lucky if I know 2 tables' worth. There's good and bad parts of that, I guess.
Whatever happens on the lake in the future, I will continue to try and provide open, honest, fact based commentary. If you disagree, call me out! Discussions like this are good for everyone. Thanks, Bob, I appreciate it. I think I will go make the above into a post on my blog now..........
URL: This Man's To Blame For Slow Lake Martin Market
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