Cossayuna Lake Topics: 08 and 07 sales

Cossayuna Lake Topics: 08 and 07 sales - $ figures

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	Name:	John C -
	Subject:	08 and 07 sales - $ figures
	Date:	12/29/2008 11:51:03 AM

Yes I have access to all info in the MLS. 07 and 08 numbers are easy to get but 06 would take some digging but is do-able. If anyone is really interested please email me privately and I can run the numbers for you. But in general I would say that 06 would be 20% better if dollars follow #s sold trends.

I got the below by running a report on the Lake Martin MLS this morning, so the usual disclaimers apply, that is, that all info is not guaranteed but deemed reliable, and doesn't inlcude sales made outside of the MLS, for example, private developers, person to person sales, bank sales, etc.

Dollar figure of waterfront homes sold - 1-1-08 - 11-30-08 = $87,964,229

ditto sold 1-1-07 thru 11-30-07 = $99,600,693 or a decrease in total sales volume of about 11.7%.

FYI the total homes sold in this period was 152 in 2007 and 133 in 2008, or a decrease of 12.5%, or further proof that prices have not necessarily moved lower, but total sales have. Another way to say it would be that the decrease in sales volume is more directly related to lack of sales than lowering of prices.

So basically it confirms what we know in our guts, and see on my monthly results - sellers can price aggressively and market tirelessly and still stand out from the pack.

Incidentally the total list price of waterfront homes offered for sale (aka active volume) in Nov 07 was $272,996,614 versus $314,818,591 in 2008 - a 15% INCREASE while number of sales decreased 11.7%. Again, this confirms what we know, that is, that more is FOR SALE in 08, and more SOLD in 07, classic buyer market conditions.

I also agree with posters that point out that lower rates are huge potential impact. Consider that at this time last year or in 06 you could be dealing with a 7% mortgage payment, whereas now you can get that same loan at sub 5%. The difference in your payment alone is a whopping 33% decrease. Combine that with a savings on the purchase price (15% is pretty normal) and it means that we are finally seeing some help on the affordability scale.

Translated from nerd jargon = there's more sellers than buyers so prices are lower - rates are lower so it helps your payment.

Mathmatically, rates can't go much lower, so it becomes a matter of guessing if you can time the absolute bottom of the market while waiting to buy. If you think you can time the bottom, ask sellers how their attempts at timing the top went. Many of the folks I talked to in 06 about selling decided to hold out and get another year's gain and sell in 07. Ouch.