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Name:
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John C
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Subject:
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Shadow Market?
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Date:
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10/2/2009 10:28:56 AM
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I don't know about that. I think that is over thinking it a bit. Why would any rational buyer wait until prices are RISING to make the decision to buy? I agree that rational buyers wait until they perceive that prices have quit falling. But remember that RE is not like buying a stock, where price is the only consideration.
I suppose in any market (guns, butter, LM RE, widgets) there are always more willing buyers at lower prices, thus the slope of the demand curve. So yes, there are many buyers that will continue to wait until they can safely jump back on the bandwagon. And, buyers are not always rational. Quite frankly, if you study price trends in anything you see that more buyer momentum happens on upswings in price.
My point is this: study the numbers. We are in a unique market transition time where sides (# of sales) are on an upswing but prices are flat. History and math shows us that when these conditions exist, price raises are next, and we will swing into another seller's market. Fact. The # of sales is the LEADING indicator. My question to buyers is, will you wait until prices rise again until you buy?
Now, I am not saying prices are about to start rising. Maybe 2010 sales will be lower then 2009. I don't know. But one thing is for sure - we have beaten 2008. We can't start back uphill until we beat the prior year. And it's over with. Scoreboard. Barring a major catastrophe, we will beat (have already beaten) 2007.
And another question - what other markets in this great nation of ours are seeing price increases? You can count them on your hand. Most places are crowing if their sales have stopped DECREASING - much less an increase that we have seen.
Again, I am not saying that we are starting another seller's market. No way. But the facts have proven - 2008 was a bottom and we are headed back "up" (good or bad, depending on your perspective). Maybe 2010 will dip back down. Who knows. But for right now, let's bury 2008 and look forward, and count our blessings. Montgomery, AL, for example, is still bleeding. Their August numbers were down versus prior year, and mark the 28th month - yes 28th, straight loss vs. prior year. We have beaten prior year 11 of last 12, and our cumulative numbers are way bigger than the last calendar year.
URL: Montgomery Hit Hard By Housing Slump
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