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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
Does Any Think
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Date:
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6/18/2009 5:37:26 PM
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that the protests in Iran are actually going to change anything there? I don't.
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
Does Anyone Think
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Date:
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6/18/2009 5:38:05 PM
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Sorry, I missed a few letters.
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
Does Any Think
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Date:
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6/18/2009 8:40:05 PM
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From what I have been hearing I think it might, not so much because of the crowds in the street but because of the below the surface power struggle that is heating up between the extremely conservative and slightly less conservative clerics who actually run the show. If the "moderates" can get the upper hand we may see some change. We are not talking Jeffersonian democracy but maybe a society that is a bit more open and free and a government that is less paranoid and belligerent. Even if A...?....jad keeps his position he will be forced to toe the mullah's line but maybe it will be a more moderate bunch pulling his strings. If this happens I think it bodes well for the future. It hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube.
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| Name: |
JustAGuy
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| Subject: |
Does Any Think
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Date:
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6/18/2009 9:54:45 PM
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If nothing else, I think it helps to show the entire world that not everyone in Iran supports Achmedinejad (sp?)
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| Name: |
Yankee06
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| Subject: |
Does Any Think
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Date:
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6/19/2009 1:48:43 AM
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Will these demos lead to anything? -interesting question:
-Did people think the Boston Tea Party would lead to anything?
-Did people think the initial anti-Vietnam demos would lead to anything?
-Did people think the 1956 Hungarian uprising would lead to anything? ...the 1968 Czech uprising? ...the 1981 Polish uprising? ..the Hungarian, Czech, Polish demos combined?
-the Pakistani lawyers demo? (lawyers?)
-but then of course, on the other side of the proverbial coin, there was Tinneman Square.
-I would guess alot depends on government response. If a strong military response, then the unrest will probably subside for a period and then pop up again if social pressures are not eased. If no government response, then demos will get out of hand, and reform forces within or outside the government will effect government changes.
Presently, the government seems to be following a tried-and-true approach of arresting or intimidating people when they are away from crowds. When people are away from the strengh of groups they become more timid and affraid. ...but this approach depends on the numbers of opponents and the time available to apply this strategy.
-It's anyones guess what will happen, --we'll all have to sit back and watch history unfold. Enjoy the show.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Not Likely
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Date:
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6/19/2009 5:21:23 AM
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Regardless of what happens with the election, Ayatollah Khomeini and the rest of the religious nut jobs really control the government there anyway. Keep in mind that Mousavi was Khomeini's Prime Minister so there will be little change in the actual underlying control. One thing Ahmadiniwackjob did was provide a lightning rod with his rhetoric that Mousavi will likely not.
One of my senior consultants is from Iran and it is very enlightening hearing his perspective on things. He is glad for the mass push back because the election was a complete fraud but is not overly optimistic.
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Some day, maybe in our children's lifetimes, our energy independence will mean that we could care less what happens in that part of the world.
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