| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
WSJ 9/2/09
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Date:
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9/2/2009 10:43:07 PM
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That's "The Wall Street Journal"...not "The Socialist Worker"
US ECONOMY GETS LIFT FROM STIMULUS
The US economy is showing signs of improvement, with many economists asserting the worst is over and data pointing to stronger-than-expected growth.
Economists say the (stimulus) money out the door - combined with the expectation of more funds soon - is fueling growth above where it would have been without government action.
For the third quarter, economists at Goldman Sachs & Co. predict the US economy will grow by 3.3% "Without that extra stimulus, we would be somewhere around zero" said Jan Hatzius, chief US economist at Goldman.
And there's lots more good news in the article, but since it is the WSJ I'm sure all the contributors of this forum has read it. Wonder why MM, WW et al haven't mentioned it?
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| Name: |
rude evin
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| Subject: |
WSJ 9/2/09
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Date:
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9/2/2009 10:48:13 PM
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They're probably counting their profits.........or making more investments....... :-}
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
WSJ 9/2/09
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Date:
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9/2/2009 10:54:42 PM
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They should have made the investments in March! :-)
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
WSJ 9/2/09
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Date:
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9/2/2009 11:02:07 PM
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I read it ... it made me yawn. You can find a variety of views on both sides. It does not make any of them right or wrong. Just opinion. I hope they are right ... yes that is what I said, i hope they are right. You will not find too many conservatives that want the US to fail and not recover. We just do not agree with the policies.
I do not agree with GS 100%, but I do believe we will have a recovery ... the stimulus may contibute some, but I doubt it, but even if it does it is not sustained. when the money goes away so do the programs. You can not rely on the government to keep spending. You need job growth and consumers spending to fuel the economy. There is nothing Obama is doing to make that sustainable.
We are seeing a inventory replenishment recovery. there are no signs of job growth and there are no signs the consumers are opening their wallets. Savings rates keep increasing. People are afraid.
Cash for clunkers created an artificial jump in cars sales. but now the show rooms are empty again.
That is how all government stimulus works. It is a flash in the pan, then it is done.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
WSJ 9/2/09
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Date:
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9/2/2009 11:03:25 PM
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They did ... i own GS stock and added significantly in March. I am a happy camper.
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
Pardon me WW
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Date:
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9/2/2009 11:03:29 PM
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I completely forgot that it's only you that is ALWAYS right!
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
WSJ 9/2/09
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Date:
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9/2/2009 11:04:41 PM
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You sure never seem happy.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
did you read what I wrote
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Date:
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9/2/2009 11:04:49 PM
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seriously ... did you. I don't mind the attacks from you ... but please read before you attack and say something that shows you did not.
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
And
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Date:
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9/2/2009 11:28:05 PM
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How can a guy who is as afraid of Obama and where you perceive him to be taking America as you are be investing in anything other than gold bars to bury in the back yard?
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| Name: |
Yankee06
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| Subject: |
WSJ
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Date:
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9/2/2009 11:30:13 PM
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Archy,
-Thanks for pointing us to that article. Any good news lifts my day.
-However, I have to admit that article was all over the place; for a guy like me, not very helpful. I just don't have a good understanding about teh economy's dynamics, about the ying-and-yang of what makes it work, ....but then again, ...our present situation suggests all teh economic experts don't either.
-From my simple view, our future turnaround is all about 1)job creation from a capitalist point of view (consumers can't buy production if they don't have money), or 2) resource sales (oil, coal, ore's, grains) from a colonial economic point of view (this time we are the economic-resource colonies for teh production powers) ---of course we don't sell much of that except for food, or 3) tech sales from an IT economic view, ---however, more and more of that is being done in asia and india.
-I'm usually an optimistic guy, --but from my view, I don't see job growth anywhere. Now teh stimulus monies for roads, bridges,, inner-cities etc may put pick-and-shovel workers on teh line for awhile, but when it's gone, they're gone. If that's true, we'll have to keep these people working, how? --that means more government money. As I fear I've said before in this forum, all this is going to lead to serious inflation, --and when that happens, most people's reirement nest eggs are gone within 4-5 years.
-But what the heck, I'll try to look at this economic glass as half full and see what happens.
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| Name: |
JustAGuy
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| Subject: |
WSJ
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Date:
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9/2/2009 11:36:04 PM
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Yankee ... this is a complete side note and has absolutely no importance whatsoever ... but I notice that you always spell the word "the" as "teh" .. I know this is an internet forum thing .. but I've nevr understood what it means ... can you explain? I know this is not a big deal ... and I'm not criticizing you for it ... I just would like to understand .. what is the significance of "teh" .. Thanks ... and please take this question in the manner it is offered.... I'm not being critical ... I just want to understand. Thanks.
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| Name: |
Yankee06
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| Subject: |
WSJ --teh
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Date:
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9/2/2009 11:54:46 PM
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JAG,
-I wish teh answer to your question on "teh" was something clever; maybe something like, ''It all depends on what the meaning of "is" is"--it all depends on what teh "teh" is!
-Unfortunately, the answer is simple, --and dull.
-I'm a self-taught typist, and for whatever reason when I want to type "the" my fingers just type "teh." I don't have the patience or discipline to go back and correct all my typos or mispells on this forum. Now, with spell check there is no problem, just hit "all replace", but until we can do that on this forum, I'm afraid I'm stuck with teh "teh"!
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
WSJ 9/2/09
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Date:
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9/3/2009 7:08:56 AM
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I am a happy person ... not too much bothers me ... but I reread what I wrote and I am NEVER happy if people are losing jobs and the economy is in the tank. I am a capitalist and an investor. A losy economy and people losing jobs hurts my pocket book personally as well.
It also hurts me when I seen the ongoing job losses and I believe it is because of the wrong policy that these people are out of work and continuing to lose jobs. Obama is too focused on his personal agenda of what he wants and is not even showing compassion for the people out of work and working on policies that he knows have put people back to work quickly.
It is like he wants to prove his way is better and it is not working, yet he refuses to change. His answer is extend benefits, throw more money at it. People want the pride of working and supporting their family ... not to be taken care of by the government. That is what destroys societies.
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All I can say is I am a very smart and successful investor. It does not mean I have not taken a bath on some investments ... and got burned big time when the tech bubble burst. But I play beaten down but strong sectors that move in cycles. I am an avid chart reader and wait for my entry point. If I believe in a stock like GS and Apple, when huge sell offs happen I accumulate more. Right now I am accumulating some beaten down Natural Gas companies and some oil. Nat Gas is at historic lows, a lot of production has been shut down due to the economy and prices. Manufacturing will come back and put demand on Nat gas, I also believe nat gas will play a role in an energy policy with commercial vehicles (government mandated). Time will tell.
My favorite is ATPG ... I got in around $4 and have been accumulating more as it has moved up and then pulled back. Right now it is sitting at about $11. The 52 week high is $26 and the 3 year high is over $50. The trailing PE on this company is 4.7 and the PE on projected earnings is less than 3. It is ripe for continuing to move higher. I am banking on with a very large position.
There you go ... I just showed a liberal how to enjoy capitalism. Don't let the opportunity pass you by.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
WSJ --teh
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Date:
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9/3/2009 7:28:03 AM
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I figured that since I am a two finger typer and sometimes they hit the wrong keys and feel the same about correcting. 1. I don't care as long as the meaning can be followed and 2. this is a forum and not a final exam or position paper.
Just so you know, people that do what you do is a sign or a quick thinker. Your mind is ahead of your fingers.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Good news indeed
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Date:
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9/3/2009 8:36:39 AM
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Archie: You don't get it do you? Unlike Democrats that look for bad news if it helps them politically I am happy for any good news on the economy. I have over 250 people that work for me and I don't want any more of this economic turmoil. That is why I oppose so much of what Obama has done because it damages the economy.
As for the impact of the stimulus package, here's a little factoid for you. $816 billion was allocated and according to recovery.org (this is the Messiah's own website, not some right-wing site) to date they have spent a mere $63 billion or 7.7%. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product is currently around $14 trillion so the stimulus money spent already (and the majority of it has gone to state and local governments in order to keep unionized government employees paid) so the stimulus money spent to date only represents 0.45% of GDP (that less than one half of one percent). Looking at it another way, of the gross domestic product created private companies and routine government spending generated 99.55% of the economic output. So I seriously doubt that this tiny percentage of GDP has had much impact and if we are recovering (which I hope we are) it is in spite of the government, not because of it.
Now I am sure that the $63 billion spent so far has had some positive impact but considering we recover on average in 18 months from recessions without any government intervention and this recession has lasted much longer, I would argue that it has had little impact. Of course, that $63 billion came from us, the taxpayers, so we didn't have it to invest in job creation. You seem to continue to operate under the faulty assumption that government creates anything. They simply take money from the productive, waste $2 out of every $3 on bureaucracy, and then return $1 to the economy.
You really need to give more thought before you jump on the bandwagon and start taking headlines from any newspaper, yes even the Wall Street Journal, and putting it out here. We actually think and analyze things and don't just accept every headline at face value.
And by the way, let's examine the relationship of Goldman Sachs to the current administration and other Democrats in government. They are all over this administration. Does that mean they might be willing to make statements that seem to support their old buddies who will no doubt return there after their stint in government to create millions of more in profits for Goldman. Good for them as far as it goes but don't expect any intelligent thinking person to accept what they say at face value.
And please don't respond with mindless attacks as they are so boring. If you have some counterargument to my analysis I would love to hear it. Maybe I got something wrong. Maybe I am missing something. Do some research, bring to light some facts.
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
Good news indeed...huh
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Date:
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9/3/2009 9:09:32 AM
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MM, help me get this straight.
1/ You say indeed the WSJ story is good news and you celebrate it
2/ You accuse "liberals" (like me) of actually seeking bad news
in spite of the fact it was I who posted the info
3/ you then try to cast doubt and suspicion on the good news you
just celebrated.
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
and WOW
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Date:
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9/3/2009 9:14:22 AM
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If only 8% of the stimulus is in the system and has raised the economy 3% despite being such a miniscule proportion of the overall economy, just think of what it will mean when 100% of it is pulsing through the the nations economic veins! MM you can't have your cake and eat it too.
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
Yeah.....
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Date:
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9/3/2009 9:41:28 AM
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These temporary gov'ment jobs gonna get us to the promised land. Take a step back Archie, look at where the money has been spent and tell me how this is going to sustain economic growth for the future. Yeah, it's a great short term fix, but, sustainable growth comes from 1 area. Care to guess? I'll give you a hint: it a'int gov'ment and it a'int big business. It is probably the only segment of our economy that hasn't received one red cent from the gov'ment.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Confused as usual
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Date:
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9/3/2009 10:07:56 AM
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Archie: You are wrong as usual.
I didn't say "liberals" seek bad news, I said Democrats seek out bad news if it will advance their political agenda. I could provide numerous examples, including quotes like the most recent where Harry Reid said Teddy Kennedy's death could be helpful to Democrats. Reminds me of an old Yoko Ono joke about living off dead beatles but I can't figure out how to rework it match Obama/Reid/Pelosi living off dead Kennedy's.
I did not cast doubt or suspicion on the good news but it is instructive to our audience as to what constitutes good news for a liberal. For liberals like you, the good news is not that the economy is improving, it is that the improvement is being attributed to the Messiah's porkulus plan. If the economy tanking were beneficial to liberals and their favored politicians you would be all for it as we saw at the end of Bush's term and during the last election cycle....bad news for America (be it job losses, bankruptcies or deaths in Iraq or Afghanistan) was good news to Democrats. Regardless of the administration, conservatives want what is best for America which is why we want Obama to fail in implementing his programs.
What I was impugning was the conclusion that the improvements seen in certain areas of the economy can be attributed to the porkulus plan. I proved my point with facts, logic and a reasonable analysis thereof. I even asked you to respond with something reasonable but you stayed true to form and totally missed the mark. You really need to read more slowly and analyze what you are reading instead of these illogical, emotional and baseless responses.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
You really are a goofball
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Date:
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9/3/2009 10:11:51 AM
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Let me restate what I said in my original post because you are apparently too slow to understand.
What I said was I did not believe the small spending to date from the porkulus plan, particularly knowing where it went, had little if anything to do with any improvement in the economy. That my friend is not trying to have it both ways. That is called a rebuttal of your thesis.
Is this clear to you or should I use crayons and pictures?
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Archie, a few more years of this robust pseudo economy and no one will have any jobs.
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“The recovery act has played a significant role in changing the trajectory of our economy, and changing the conversation in this country,” Biden said. “Instead of talking about the beginning of a depression, we are talking about the end of a recession.” - September 3 2009
September 4, 2009, Unemployment at 26 year high of 9.7% and underemployment at 16.8%.
But to be fair, the economy only shed 216,000 jobs in August. Must be the trajectory.
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| Name: |
Summer Lover
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| Subject: |
The easy fix
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Date:
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9/4/2009 10:35:14 AM
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There is an easy way to fix the economy, and I do not understand why the powers that be in D.C. don't implement it. All they have to do is ask that each American to do our patriotic duty and run each of our credit cards to the limit. They are doing the very same thing - what is the problem?
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
I stand by my statement MM
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Date:
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9/5/2009 3:50:05 PM
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Please go back and reread your 9/3/09 8:36:39 post and or other of your posts in this stream and point out to me where you use logic and reason and facts to prove your point. Simply expressing an opinion contrary to someone elses does not prove the superiorty of your opinion unless you happen to be God. Hum, MM you don't think that you are.....No surely even you aren't that arrogant.
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
I stand by my statement MM
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Date:
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9/5/2009 3:53:23 PM
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And as for me making reasonable statements I refer you back to my original post which started this stream.
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I hope you made some money with my recommendation on ATPG ... if you bought it that morning when I recommended it to you, then you are already up about 30%.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
What a shock
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Date:
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9/8/2009 9:31:50 AM
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I did not express my opinion, I gave you facts and drew reasonable conclusions from them. As is typical of your responses you are fact free and logic free, but you feel good about yourself.
A reasonable person would conclude that less than one half of one percent of increased spending doesn't equate to a 3% increase in the economy or whatever they are claiming. You don't need to be a god to understand basic math and simple economics.
I pointed out that the majority of that initial spending simply filled budget gaps in state and local budgets which allowed these governments to CONTINUE paying their employees (mostly union so the payback continues). Keeping people employed simply prevents a greater fall in employment levels, it does not add to the economy, duh!
Finally, I pointed out factually that government creates nothing. Therefore every penny that the government deigns to hand out to its preferred constituents comes from the productive in society that pays taxes. Now you explain to me how taking money from the economy in the form of taxes, wasting $2 of every $3 and then returning $1 causes a bump? I know you are too old to have your mind polluted by the new math but maybe you took some continuing education that explains how taking $3 from someone and then giving them $1 back somehow makes them better off.
I have said this before but I would worry about any building you design unless an engineer does the math. And the title to your post doesn't surprise me that you stand by your comments even though they are unsupported by facts.
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| Name: |
architect
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| Subject: |
What a shock
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Date:
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9/8/2009 7:50:24 PM
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MM you state "facts" from whatever source and you are then nice enough to interpret for everybody else exactly what they mean. That my friend is "opinion". Oh, BTW I have been a registered architect since 1972 and have never, knock on wood, had any sort of structural collapse on any project nor have I had even a hint at a suit against me much less an actual filing. How about you?
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Whew!
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Date:
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9/9/2009 8:49:33 AM
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That's good news about your record as an architect and to me proves that you work with good engineers because your math skills have me worried. I am actually not an architect, but I have built several successful businesses that generate $40 million in annual sales and employ 250 people across the U.S. and Canada. I have lots of people just like you that work for me and they are very good at what they do and are very well compensated.
I defy you to prove my facts wrong and if my facts are right explain to me on what factual basis do you disagree with my conclusion? I am willing to be convinced but not by a fact-free emotional response simply because you want the Messiah to get credit for something that he does not deserve credit for.
I will give him credit for the following:
-adding trillions to the deficit in 8 short months
-socializing auto makers to pay the unions off for their support
-hampering our ability to fight foreign enemies by having Holder go on a witch hunt against the CIA to satisfy the netroots
-abnegating his leadership on important issues by outsourcing the porkulus and health care bills to leftist wackos in charge of Congress
But these are all resume enhancers to you aren't they?
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