Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	The Clarity of Science
Date:	10/15/2022 10:05:16 AM

Science: …from Middle English, "knowledge, the ability to know, learning, branch of knowledge," borrowed from Anglo-French science, cience, borrowed from Latin scientia "knowledge, awareness, understanding, branch of knowledge, learning."

What we know is NOT as clear as you might think.

You would think that chemistry is absolute. Well, maybe not. When us old farts were growing up, had we heard of “quarks coming in different flavors?” 200 years ago people were drinking Radium and laudanum (tincture of opium) for their “benefits.” People drank mercury for medicinal purposes and water supply lines were made of lead. What do you know about Radon? There have been proven NO DEATHS OR ILLNESS from residential Radon… ever. (I give a scientific, impartial lecture on Radon.)

You would think that we’ve known the facts of physics and thermodynamics well enough to have “Laws of Physics” and “Laws of Thermodynamics.” Then came the theories of general and special relativity. And, one of the laws of thermodynamics implies that the universe will descend into chaos!

Plate tectonics was solidified as a theory in the late 1970s. Up until then, you would roll your eyes as to how some geologists thought mountains were built. Yet the observational concept was known for over 200 years.

The “facts” that we know about climate change are dim indeed. The accurate thermometer was invented by Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit in 1714. Until that time there was NO way to record accurate temperatures. Accurate temperature records still do not exist in certain regions of the earth. SO, real scientists use “proxies” to stand in for temperature assignments over the span of history. An example of a proxy is the finding of a tree stump, Picca glauea, a conifer at the edge of the Arctic Circle. WE know under what conditions this spruce tree grows (today). So we infer that the conditions for the flourishing of this tree were present about 5000 years ago (radio carbon dating – another proxy).

There are about 274 currently acceptable proxies.

https://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences-and-law/anthropology-and-archaeology/archaeology-general/dating-techniques

To get temperature estimates over geologic time several proxies for the same period are averaged. Look at the graphic in my previous post.   The faint wavy lines in the background are proxies.

To get parts per million for CO2 at 360 million years ago you a) measure the concentration of CO2 in multiple sample media, b) date the media using multiple proxies and c) INFER the CO2 ppm at that time.

EVEN if our proxies are off by +/- 100 ppm, there is absolutely NO DOUBT that the concentration of CO2 has grossly descended constantly over the preceding 570 million years (from almost 6000 ppm to ~ 400 ppm). The concentrations of Nitrogen and Oxygen have risen over the same period. At one point, the level of O2 in the atmosphere was not high enough for living organisms (including us) as we know them.

AND, the entire solar system, in concurrence with the laws of thermodynamics, is slowly getting colder. Heat energy does not go from cold to warm. And the unfathomable preponderance of space is at near absolute zero ( −273.15 degrees Celsius / −459.67 degrees Fahrenheit ).

Anthropomorphic global warming (AGW) is a hoax. Global climate change is certain (but it has very little to do with humans).

BUT, we won’t be here to say…

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Follow the money
Date:	10/15/2022 11:02:18 AM

Sadly our chosen field, science, has proven all too willing to sell out for the Benjamins.  Environmentalism is a religion for many, a new way to promote neo-Marxism for some and a valuable tool for the private sector to make money, politicians to gain ever greater control over our lives and our hard earned income and kleptocrats to transfer wealth from the developed to the developing world.  Globaloney is indeed a hoax.....a massively successful one because most people do not trust their own judgement and are willing to blindly believe what they are told by politicians and the media rather than using facts, logic and reason.  

As much as I hate to say it, and I hope I am wrong, we may be the last generation that actually understands science, what it can and can't do, it's limitation and methods and how to think independently about what you see and hear and separate real science from politicized science.  And I include the field of medicine in with science, not just for its egregious behavior during the pandemic but its satanic devotion to abortion and mutilation of children caught up in the current gender dysphoria madness.  Just look at opinion polls on the state of the economy.....people are either truly ignorant or willfully lying to pollsters.  Those are the people that will believe anything the govt tells them.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Follow the money
Date:	10/16/2022 11:00:27 AM (updated 10/16/2022 11:01:57 AM)

With  all the rhetoric about the climate and follow the  money, can either of you provide some insight into  when  the stock market will hit 35,000?

Name:	MrHodja -	Reply
Subject:	The Clarity of Science
Date:	10/16/2022 1:20:29 PM (updated 10/16/2022 1:36:15 PM)

I enjoy your posts as potentially enlightening regarding this entire "climate change" issue.  I have noted in the past that the term "Global Warming" has been changed to "Climate Change", and it seems to me if indeed global warming is the existential threat that climate change afficianados would have us believe, why did they change the name?

You obviously are much deeper into this issue and much more informed, so you almost assuredly know the primary arguments of the climate change scientists.  What is their primary evidence that global warming is a true threat?  Why are they wrong?  I have friends and family members who have bought into the idea that we are ruining the earth through carbon emissions and need ot be able to present an argument to the contrary that they can understand,  Admittedly some of them will simply not listen to logic and reason and there isn't anything I can do about that, but there may be hope for some others.

Thanks again.

"Nasreddin Hodja" 

Name:	MrHodja -	Reply
Subject:	Follow the money
Date:	10/16/2022 1:22:34 PM

Only when you can explain why the decline in the number of prepubescent aardvarks materially affects the cost of kimchi at Seoul Market in Montgomery.

Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	Follow the money
Date:	10/16/2022 3:46:30 PM (updated 10/16/2022 4:03:06 PM)

Last I looked, my  question was directed to the two learned scientists. I think based on their background, they are fully capable of researching the issue. You may not like their response but you owe them the courtesy of allowing  them the opportunity to post the requested info.

I am considered an expert on aardvacks having studied  them some years ago.  They  are noctural and trying to count prepubescent aardvarks is difficult  at best. The decline is no different from the decline in the size of icebergs...global warming. Finally, something you  and  I can agree on.

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	The Clarity of Science
Date:	10/16/2022 4:35:53 PM

I am by no means a scientist, but while I believe in climate change, I don't believe that we can stop it.  So if I am not a scientist, why do I believe this?  I need only think about the unknowns of the Universe - With the new telescopes, we see things that we have never seen before.  There is so much unknown, so how do people definitively say that by reducing carbon emissions we can stop the changes in the Universe.  We have theories of how our world came into being, but no one can say definitively.  We don't know the history of the other planets within our own solar system, much less than other solar systems.   

Wasn't it Al Gore that started this?  Democrats have spun it into a industry and we are being forced to accept this nonsense.  

Name:	MrHodja -	Reply
Subject:	Follow the money
Date:	10/16/2022 7:42:17 PM

Idiocy abounds, as witnessed by your two latest posts....and my very unserious attempt to get you to connect prepubescent aardvarks to the price of kimchi.  I am still scratching my head to determine how it is that two geologists or geophysicists (MAJ and Martini I apologize if I mischaracterized your profession(s)) should be able to predict when the stock marke will reach a certain level.  And no, I don't see that we agree on much of anything on this particular forum.  

You must visit and post on the Lake Martin and Boat Maintenance forums after you have taken your meds.  You come across as almost sane on those two forums.

Name:	Lighthouse -	Reply
Subject:	The Clarity of Science
Date:	10/16/2022 9:52:57 PM

Hound,  Read the next to last post in the thread "I told you so" below. 

You will find we need co2 for the plants we eat to grow.

Name:	MrHodja -	Reply
Subject:	The Clarity of Science
Date:	10/16/2022 10:44:15 PM

Curious what about Hound's post prompted yours.  I re-read it several times and don't see that she advocates the climate change zealots' agenda, rather the opposite: not going to sweat it because we can't really affect it.  My apolgies if I misread your intent.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	Science versus the dismal science
Date:	10/16/2022 10:46:14 PM

Let me help you out here Goofy cause you need it bad.  They call economics the dismal science for a reason.  Take two economists and give them the exact same data and they will come up with polar opposite conclusions. Take two legitimate scientists and give them the exact same data and 9 times out of 10 they'll come up with the same answer. Unless the govt tells them that one answer is acceptable and will get them more funding. Then all bets are off.

As to your specific question, if I or anyone else could answer it we sure as he!! wouldn't tell you or anyone else. But no one can because the markets are a reflection of future expectations and nobody knows what those are going to be with any reliability. The inability to predict the future performance of emotion driven markets has zero to do with the ability to examine facts using logic and reason.  That you don't get that pretty much explains why you voted for Shrillery, Oblamer and Dementia Joe  

Name:	lucky67 -	Reply
Subject:	The Clarity of Science
Date:	10/17/2022 10:10:04 AM

i simply want to know how & when JB & Kerry are going to stop all hurricanes/ tornadoes/ hail, etc so my home insurance premiums can go down-i'll wait for an answer 

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	The Clarity of Science
Date:	10/17/2022 10:49:54 AM

Right after sea levels stop rising as promised by Odipsh!t......in other words, do not hold your breath.  :-)

Name:	Lighthouse -	Reply
Subject:	The Clarity of Science
Date:	10/17/2022 10:58:25 AM (updated 10/17/2022 10:59:09 AM)

I guess I read too much into this: "so how do people definitively say that by reducing carbon emissions we can stop the changes in the Universe.".  I guess I was trying to give him some info that backs up her thoughts. 

Name:	phil -	Reply
Subject:	Follow the money
Date:	10/18/2022 8:36:23 AM

As to the stock market I believe GFY requested to know when it would hit 35K - I can predict it will never happen under Biden for obvious reasons ( see current trends )