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Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	The problem with registered voter polls
Date:	7/20/2012 9:31:06 AM (updated 7/20/2012 9:32:07 AM)

As I have often pointed out, the problem with polls of registered voters is that they tend to oversample Democrats. Saw a recent analysis of this and it is apparent that I was correct. Of the six most recent polls of registered voters, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by a range of 3% to 7%. This is much greater than the actual spread of registered Dems and Republicans and why these polls tend to overstate support for the Dem candidate. Interestingly, if you adjust all these polls for this obvious imbalance they track very well with polls of likely voters. Looking at all these polls and making the adjustments indicates that Romney and TOTUS are in a dead heat. When Reagan landslided the worthless one out of office in 1980 at this point in the campaign he was 9% behind. And undecided likely voters (currently around 12%) historically break more for the opponent than the incumbent. At the risk of repeating myself, polls are just polls and the only one that counts is that first Tuesday in November. And I still believe that Oblamer's chance of reelection is better than even. But just a word of warning to the left wingnuts, don't take too much comfort in the polls of registered voters. They simply cannot be trusted.

Name:	Summer Lover -	Reply
Subject:	Wrong again MM
Date:	7/20/2012 10:04:52 AM

The polls ARE correct, no need for the dems to even go vote, O has the election locked up.

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	I like SL's strategy
Date:	7/20/2012 11:11:53 AM

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	LOL
Date:	7/20/2012 12:17:24 PM

I was thinking of offering to have Dems vote on Wed to avoid all the long lines.......but that's an old one. I like yours better,

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	Can't be bothered
Date:	7/22/2012 10:00:32 AM

I once read that conservatives are less likely to respond to a pollster. Hits home - I hang up on them all the time.

Liberals are more cynical and vocal… and more open to the opportunity to vent their feelings.

Conservatives are skeptical of polls… they can nail an editorialized question in a New York Second. Conservatives don’t like it when none of the responses is their choice (hmmm… sounds like an independent voter).

And, conservatives are more likely to be eating supper with their family when the pollsters call.

Name:	water_watcher -	Reply
Subject:	Can't be bothered
Date:	7/22/2012 10:33:49 AM

and fewer people have home phones and opt for just a cell phone which they are not suppose to call, or if they do, don't answer. I never answer a cell call from a number that I do not recognize or whos name does not pop up from my contact list. The same would go for caller ID. Polls are becoming less and less meaningful. Look at WI recall ... all the news was saying is how close the election was, etc, etc ... and he won by 9 percentage points.

Name:	water_watcher -	Reply
Subject:	One other comment
Date:	7/22/2012 10:36:30 AM

I have been in NY most of this past week ... (suppose to be a locked Oblamer state) ... yet I saw an a significant number of Romney bumper stickers and very very few Oblamer.

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	One other comment
Date:	7/22/2012 11:36:13 AM

Side note: If you ever get to Maine... a state with some rather nasty cold and wet winters... as you drive along, notice that front porches... if any... are tiny. AND they predominantly have no cover over them. How would you interpret that?

Name:	MAJ USA RET -	Reply
Subject:	Maine for Obama - at least on the Coast
Date:	7/22/2012 11:42:14 AM

My wife has been in Bar Harbor, ME for the last week... Obama stickers everywhere.

Name:	water_watcher -	Reply
Subject:	Maine for Obama - at least on the Coast
Date:	7/22/2012 10:12:00 PM

and I used to like Bar Harbor.

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