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Name:	John C -	Reply
Subject:	End of Sellers' Market
Date:	7/25/2007 12:15:47 PM

I pulled together some numbers from the Lake Martin MLS to assess the real estate market for the last 12 months. See the link below. I am sure some folks will disagree with me, but, as always, I'm open to friendly debate. Some of this info will definitely NOT be a news flash, but other parts I found surprising.

URL: Proof of End Of Sellers' Market On Lake Martin

Name:	Maverick -	Reply
Subject:	Good Blog - John C.
Date:	7/25/2007 12:39:07 PM

Will study later tonight, but based on quick look your conclusions appear in line with the data you presented.

Name:	boataholic -	Reply
Subject:	End of Sellers' Market
Date:	7/25/2007 1:41:11 PM

Excellent article. Confirms my suspicions about the high end market. I'm surprised at the low number of lot sales, but then again, it looks like nearly half the lots are at 400,000 or more.

Name:	Samdog -	Reply
Subject:	End of Sellers' Market
Date:	7/25/2007 1:57:28 PM

Thanks for your input. I have a cabin listed that I have been trying to sell in the under $400,000 deeded lot category and I have not even had any lookers much less a lowball offer. Are you saying I need to post a low price up-front to get people to look?

Name:	Feb -	Reply
Subject:	End of Sellers' Market
Date:	7/25/2007 2:17:00 PM

Thanks John for the analysis. It is interesting indeed,

Are you of the opinion the market as suffered this year due the drought, and any thoughts you may have of the effects of the recent subprime mortgage fiasco?

Is your office over in the Nail's facility area on 63?

Name:	DJ -	Reply
Subject:	End of Sellers' Market
Date:	7/25/2007 2:24:33 PM

Hey John, can you also post the same information for 05 and 6?
What were the sales rates during those years to compare to this year.

Name:	John C -	Reply
Subject:	Yes I am at Nail's on 63
Date:	7/25/2007 3:01:36 PM

In the "Office Studios" right next door to the C store.

URL: Location

Name:	John C -	Reply
Subject:	2005 and 2006 data
Date:	7/25/2007 3:08:10 PM

is hard to retrieve from our mls. I can get the number of properties in each segment that sold during any period going back 5 or 6 years, but I have a hard time comparing them versus listings that were active at a perticular time in the past. For instance, I am not sure there is a way to figure out how many waterfront lots were "active" for sale on July 4, 2005. Since most of my analysis dealt with the selling rate vs active properties, it was hard to replicate for prior year data.

They do have a report or two that shows you months' inventory, by month, stretching back 18 or so months, but hereagain I have had trouble confirming those stats, especially when trying to drill down to seperate, say, deeded lots and leased lots.

But I am going to do a future post on cause and effect, so maybe I can get some provable, meaningful numbers by then.

URL: Proof of End Of Sellers' Market On Lake Martin

Name:	John C -	Reply
Subject:	Subprime
Date:	7/25/2007 3:26:03 PM

I don't think that the subprime mortgage fiasco will affect the lake at all, or at least in any meaningful amount. Most buyers are higher end folks that are putting a large cash portion down and / or using (what I deem to be) banks or mortgage brokers that are not sub prime players.

What small effect there may be would be the proverbial heir to a lake house that granny bought in the 60s. She wills it to her two grandkids, who take out a big subprime, heloc, ARM, or some such other exotic loan. In 2 years the payments are raised by rate increases or whatever, and the two heirs can't make the payments, so they sell. But that is merely hastening what often happens anyway.

If you meant what will be the effect of the subprime fiasco nationally, who knows? I think the first effect will be bank shareholders having to scrutinize their banks' involvement in so called subprime lending. Because stockholders always want great returns, but they also want no risk. Risk / return are usually inversely related. So if banks want return they must make some risky loans. I think it's up to shareholders to evaluate that risk and make their own decisions. I don't think more government intervention is the answer. It seems to me that many banks are seeking to chase the returns, but corralling the risk by buying subprime players and leaving them in their own pastures, a la Wachovia buying Golden West.

But, this is not my area of expertise. Anybody wishing to learn more should read the articles on wsj.com, and search for subprime. They have really good coverage.

URL: Lake Martin Voice

Name:	Feb -	Reply
Subject:	Yes I am at Nail's on 63
Date:	7/25/2007 4:01:27 PM

OK, I am using one of their storage units. I thought I saw your last name name, but I was not sure if it was you or a relative.

I will have to stop and say Hi the next time I a dragging stuff down.

Thanks for your thoughs on the the current market and the other idiosyncrasies.

Name:	John C -	Reply
Subject:	Yes I am at Nail's on 63
Date:	7/25/2007 4:25:22 PM

please stop in, I would be glad to meet you.

Name:	Bob -	Reply
Subject:	Subprime
Date:	7/25/2007 10:05:54 PM

No surpirse to me and I have said it for months now. Anyone who spends timeon the lake and has paid any attention anecdotally knew this...your number provide the proof. Congratulations to you for being honest and not sugarcoating the situation. We need a bottom and we are close in my opinion. I predict some hangover affect for 8 to 12 more months and then 10% appreciation in the year following...not what we have had but not bad...long term you can't lose....

Name:	Samdog -	Reply
Subject:	End of Sellers' Market
Date:	7/26/2007 12:14:14 PM

Thanks for whoever sent me a private message about photos of this property. My Knology email program will not let me reply to your email. You can get more info right here on lakemartin.com in the Real Estate for sale section. It is the Real Island Cabin. Don't let the price scare you, make me an offer!!!

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