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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Economic recovery started?
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Date:
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10/30/2009 10:55:08 AM
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Last quarter we saw growth in GDP equal to an annual rate of 3.5%. Let's hope its sustainable. Here are the risks:
1. Growing unemployment will stall the recovery. Employment levels always lag the recovery but this time there is concern that many of the lost jobs will never return which means people will have to find other lines of work. Also, there is a lot of capacity in the system with part-time employees that will go to full-time before hiring.
2. Pending tax increases being a drag on the economy. With the tax cuts of 2002 set to expire every single tax bracket will go up. This will remove a lot of money from the economy. Also, the various bills floating around Congress to take over the health care system all include immediate tax increases (even though benefits don't kick in until after the 2012 election).
3. Another terrorist attack involving WMD. This is an ever-present threat.
4. Fears of inflation. With the four-fold increase in the deficit and the lackluster debt sales the government may be forced to simply print money. This will trigger inflation.
5. Interest rate hikes. The Fed is still focused on controlling inflation and if they see it heating up they will likely increase interest rates. This could have a dampening effect on the economy.
I am sure there are many others but these are at the top of my list. Let's hope this recovery holds as its been a bad one. The sooner it is over the sooner we get to job growth.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
Economic recovery started?
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Date:
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10/30/2009 11:31:42 AM
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I too want the recovery to last ... but all indications are that the 3.5% was created through cash for clunkers and the massive wasteful government spending that is doing nothing to create jobs in the private sector.
We all hope for follow through next quarter and we may get some from holiday spending ... but jobs are still the issue. The socialist are saying the saved or created 650,000 jobs with stimulus spending .... but in reality we have lost 6 million.
This morning on CNBC an Obama econimist admitted that their own projections now show unemployment exceeding 10% ... one of the guest hosts said their model shows it peaking at 12-14%. The guy said well even our worst case scenerios do not have it going to your "high end". So to me, that means even their own estimates are probably 11 to 12% ...
That is huge and the sad part is, it could have been avoided and we could have had recovery sooner with more common sense policy that would create jobs and truely stimulate the economy.
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| Name: |
Yankee06
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| Subject: |
Economic recovery started?
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Date:
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10/30/2009 6:37:13 PM
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-both WW and MM above want recovery to continue. Why?
-I'll be up front, I don't want it to continue. I want it to be a "false" 3-month recovery based on automotive (C4C) and housing ($8,000 rebate) upticks resulting only from government money.
-Why? How can I be so heartless? I believe in the capitalist system as developed in a free country over two hundred years. The America we have today is a result of its hybrid capitlist-democratic history.
-What the bunch in control of DC want now is socialism, and they are using socialist methods to get what they want economically, financially, and politically. If they succeed, then everything I believe in is wrong. So I don't want them to succedd. If they succeed, then I'll suck it up and admit I was wrong and then proudly watch the new America grow and prosper.
-HOWEVER, I don't believe that will happen, nor do I believe that we should help the crowd in power to make it happen. I spent almost 30 years studying the political, economic, cultural, and military mechanics and results of socialistand communist governments. All they do is lower the average man's status of living and his/her hopes for the future. Only the bureaucrats of the ruling political elites prosper. Almost every socialist government of teh last 100 years has led its country to mediocrity at best and totalitarin dictatorship at worst. In most cases it takes two generations (the time it takes for initiatives of the former culture to run out of steam) for a new socialist government to totally flounder. It's all about the America our grand children will inherit.
-I believe from every thing I have read, heard, and researched, that Obama, his czars, his congressional leaders, and his mentors are all on teh political spectrum ranging from strident socialists to stupid communists.
-Do I hope them succeed? --hell no!!!
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| Name: |
MAJ USA RET
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| Subject: |
Economic recovery started?
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Date:
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10/31/2009 9:35:28 AM
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Hasn't started in my business... nope... terrible layoffs this week. Good people - Bad News.
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| Name: |
Mack
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| Subject: |
Add Two More Concerns>>
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Date:
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10/31/2009 6:44:52 PM
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to the MM List.
1. Gasoline/natural gas prices have increased big time over the last 12 months, again. That really hurts workers who are already hurting, and trying to keep their jobs.
2. Consumer Confidence (a large factor in recovery) is not there. I think employers/investors/analysts continue to doubt that the current upswing in the recovery is "Real". Waiting for the next collapse of a US Industry/Financial Group. Waiting for the news of a new round of tax increases to pay for the "Recovery". Waiting for Inflation/Interest Rates to grow.
Really, really bad time to try to introduce/implement major changes in Social Services, that automatically translate to a reduction in take-home pay, or business expansion.
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| Name: |
MAJ USA RET
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| Subject: |
Add More Concerns>>
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Date:
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10/31/2009 10:29:49 PM
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...and to the list, in accordance with the law of unintended consequences, add the cost of governement run healthcare
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