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(Gulf Shores - Orange Beach - Perdido Key Specific)
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
Vacation Homes
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Date:
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1/10/2011 1:15:37 PM (updated 1/10/2011 1:18:26 PM)
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Well I'm not sure this has found the locale of east central Alabama but this ain't bad news!
URL: 2nd home rebound?
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| Name: |
glen7297
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| Subject: |
Vacation Homes
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Date:
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1/10/2011 3:46:30 PM
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increase in sales but at what price per unit? are people having to give away their property to get them sold? not trying to be a pessimist here, property moving is good overall but just thinking that maybe units are having to be priced pretty low to move.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
Vacation Homes
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Date:
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1/10/2011 5:13:38 PM
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Prices aren't what anybody wants but before they rise we have to get rid of some of this inventory or the sales velocity has to increase. This indicates to me that we may be getting the velocity increase as the market perceives a bottom. Then they will be driven up by the normal course of things.
Additionally prices were about 20% too high to start with if you consider the ratio of mortgage costs to income. Prices overshot the growth in household incomes and now every thing has to adjust from inventory to the ability of households to pay.
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| Name: |
John C
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I liked this one better
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Date:
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1/11/2011 4:52:39 PM
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I liked this article in the wsj better. I quit listening to the "economists" at Realtor.org 4 years ago. They have totally lost credibility to me and I have lobbied inside the organization that all associations (national and state and local) only issue numbers, not provide any forward looking estimates. I think forward looking estimates by self interested associations are circular at best.
Good news, yes, we finally have some nationally. They are bragging about 10% gains but we are ahead of that.
This also confirms to me the LM is ahead of the nation's recovery. we bounced back in 2009, with # of waterfront homes sold via the MLS was > 40% than 2008. This year (2010) will be about even with 2009. See my blog and read in the Market Statistics category.
Also a positive thing is that we still see some 95% financing in some loan closings. With rates this low, only positive.
True, prices are down, but I have been convinced by studying people that study the numbers that # of homes sold is a leading indicator of average price. That is, watch the trend in year to year sales of # of homes sold, that will tell you where prices are headed. If you want to read my full thoughts on this, google "lake martin voice nicolai kolding" and you can read it. It's only my opinion that Kolding is correct, but I have combed through his numbers and find no cracks. It's not hocus pocus, he studied all major metro markets since like 1980.
URL: Second Home Sales up - WSJ
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