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| Name: |
GoneFishin
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| Subject: |
A Favorite of Martini
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Date:
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11/14/2012 11:50:06 PM
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Here is a cut n paste from an article in the LA Times about Martini's favorite pollster. It is interesting that Rasmussen "weighs" the results to try and predict party. There was consistent criticism from some on the Forum of other polls that showed Obama leading that they polled more Democrats. Martini liked to remind us that Rasmussen polled likely voters. So much for the expert.
Ohio -- Rasmussen: dead heat. Actual: Obama by 2.
Virginia -- Rasmussen: Romney +2. Actual: Obama by 3.
Iowa -- Rasmussen: Romney +1. Actual: Obama by 6.
Wisconsin -- Rasmussen: tie. Actual: Obama by 7.
Colorado -- Rasmussen: Romney +3. Actual: Obama by 5.
Some conservative media outlets used the Rasmussen polling to prop up a narrative in the final days of the campaign that Romney had momentum and a good chance of winning the White House.
Rasmussen has drawn scrutiny before because it employs automated surveys that do not reach mobile phones, which more and more Americans use as their primary form of communication.
The pollster also “weights” results to try to predict the party identification of the electorate. Other pollsters frown on this approach, saying one of the primary functions of the polls is to assess whether voters consider themselves Democrats, Republicans, members of some other party or no party.
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
amazing the amount of illegal voting
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Date:
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11/15/2012 6:19:44 AM
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
A Favorite of Martini
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Date:
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11/15/2012 8:09:42 AM
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Yep, in this cycle Rasmussen was off but he was dead on in 2010 and 2008.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Some more analysis
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Date:
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11/15/2012 5:37:19 PM
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Just read a very detailed analysis of the polls vis-a-vis the results and it was indeed an unusual year. Only one other time in modern polling history have the actual numbers more resembled polling results from registered voters than likely voters. For example, one of the more accurate polls in this cycle (PPP) for some reason changed their methodology based on a hunch that black, hispanic and young voter turnout would mimic 2008 and not 2010 or prior years. They turned out to have been right. SO what we have is high turnout from the demographics that either most rely on free stuff from the government or are the most ill informed and idealistic.
In essence, TOTUS won because he dominated the black and hispanic women vote under the age of 30. Had he not he would have lost the popular vote and the electoral college although it would have been very close (R 275 O 263). So Romney was right when he said the goodies from Oblamer won the election. Heck, Obama even lost white women under the age of 30. He literally won the election by pandering to non-white women under the age of 30. Amazing!
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| Name: |
GoneFishin
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| Subject: |
Some more analysis
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Date:
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11/16/2012 12:19:31 AM
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You are indeed correct about the female vote. Overall, Obama won a majority of those under 40 regardless of race and Romney those age 40 and over. I wonder how many whites voted against Obama because he is black or a Democrat?
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
I voted against him because he is wrong
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Date:
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11/16/2012 9:36:02 AM
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But if you are counting by race, which is a typical left wing fixation, then I offer you the following. 39% of whites voted for the black guy and 97% of blacks voted against the white guy. If you are into numbers it is pretty obvious who is making their decision mostly based on race and therefore a much bigger issue for America is the racism of blacks, not whites. We have made tremendous progress while blacks have gone backward. Heck, just look at your average college campus and you will see the objective truth of that. Blacks have demanded segregation...not whites. They self segregate themselves.....they self slave themselves.....
So get off the race issue because it is a sideshow to the reality that TOTUS is a failure and the only way he won was offering free stuff to minority women and they bought it. The GOP has to do a better job of explaining why they are buying into misery and servitude and not real security. And they have to overcome the sorry state of our education system and the govt media. No easy task but when you are right you have to do the right thing and not the expedient thing.
We can never and will never be able to outdo Democrats in giving away goodies. All this stupid advice by the left and squishy Republicans is just that....stupid. Really, why take half a loaf with a moderate Republican than a whole loaf with a Democrat? It makes no sense as a strategy.
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| Name: |
GoneFishin
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| Subject: |
I voted against him because he is wrong
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Date:
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11/16/2012 10:24:10 AM
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"the only way he won was offering free stuff to minority women and they bought it." What are these so called free gifts that are available to black woman and not white woman?
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Excellent question
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Date:
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11/16/2012 10:38:03 AM
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Answer: Affirmative action.
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