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Name:	FLgirl -	Reply
Subject:	Home Sales on Lake Martin
Date:	2/5/2013 3:24:16 AM

Real estate nationally is coming back in many areas, was wondering how sales at the lake are doing. (Hoping John C is checking the forum)

Name:	John C -	Reply
Subject:	2012 was 2nd best on record
Date:	2/5/2013 9:50:07 AM

I'm going to post the official results in about a week, but 2012 was the 2nd best year on record in terms of number of homes sold. All agents - all brokerages - sold about 236 waterfront homes, or one better than in 2006. 2005 was like 285.

Our market bounced back in 2009. 2008 was the low, 2009 sales were 40% above that, and it has increased every year.

2006 was definitely a boom year so to me the fact that we beat it should silence critics that said "it will never come back like it was." "Never" is a big word.

Prices, however, have not risen. They have been stable in 2010 and 2011. I haven't run the numbers for 2012 yet but my gut tells me we will see it was stable, or perhaps a slight rise.

Name:	FLgirl -	Reply
Subject:	2012 was 2nd best on record
Date:	2/5/2013 1:14:15 PM

I know it is a totally differenty market but we are seeing the same thing in Florida. Sales have increased substantially, almost to the 2005/06 level and prices are up but not drastically. I think a big factor in both markets that will keep prices from reaching the record levels of past is that banks have gone back to more rigid standards to qualify for loans. There were far too many people given loans who never should have qualified which is what caused the hugh demand and the following bubble.
At any rate, I'm glad lake sales are brisk but still within reach for more families. We are all very blessed.

Name:	roswellric -	Reply
Subject:	2012 was 2nd best on record
Date:	2/6/2013 11:03:40 AM

Here is a rundown of some cities nationally. Seems the fastest recovering markets are those that are not emcumberred by judicial forclosure requirements.

URL: Where Will Home Prices Rise the Most?

Name:	FLgirl -	Reply
Subject:	2012 was 2nd best on record
Date:	2/6/2013 11:27:50 AM

The judicial process is also a factor. In FL, it does take much longer to foreclose than in non-judicial states. However, I don't really think that has much bearing on prices. The banks are sitting on a hugh "shadow" inventory right now. From what I have read, they don't have to show the loss on their books until the house is sold. They are deliberately letting the inventory out a little at a time to control prices and to spread their losses over a greater period of time. If every home that was in defauilt forclosed tomorrow, they would just have a larger inventory that they would be sitting on. If every home that was in default were put on the market the prices would plunge again. Supply and demand.

Name:	John C -	Reply
Subject:	2012 was 2nd best on record
Date:	2/7/2013 5:28:47 PM

judicial process may be a small factor at Lake Martin, but I doubt it. I think overall market value is a much larger factor. The facts show that home prices did not drop as much in terms of % as in other markets. The supply / demand relationship, with most undeveloped land held by 2 companies, helped that. Foreclosures' biggest driver is crash in market prices. When your market price doesn't crash as much, you won't have as many foreclosures.

Name:	roswellric -	Reply
Subject:	Right... but....
Date:	2/7/2013 9:49:46 PM (updated 2/7/2013 10:17:27 PM)

Lake Martin is a teeny-tiny second home market and has a very small absorption rate. So it gets grossly overbuilt like it did in the real estate bubble crash and a little crazy when demand spikes. Now on this dip It might take years to absorb the inventory not to mention the shadow inventory that is just waiting for prices to rise.

IMHO the general problem is no unified plan or promotion for the area. It's so fragmented with every interest and municipality guarding their particular turf. Development to date has played small ball and is product oriented instead of market oriented. "If you build it they will come" just doesn't work anymore. There is no infrastucture for a permanent lake population that would fuel real growth.

With the exit of the rest of the Russell Mills after the Fruit of the Loom acquisition there won't be much left in Alexander City to support local businesses either except for government, medical and lake service companies. Maybe that will be the wake up call. I hope so.

On the positive side...what a beautiful lake, area and people. And for folks that don't like change it's heaven. It's always a great day at Lake Martin!

Name:	realfast64 -	Reply
Subject:	Right... but....
Date:	2/7/2013 9:55:06 PM

So right!! If an area does not have middle class they don't have a support class!! Not much comming here when we have 54% free or reduced lunches in our schools.

Name:	John C -	Reply
Subject:	Right... but....
Date:	2/7/2013 10:15:08 PM

I agree we are a teeny tiny second home market, but "grossly overbuilt" is a bit much. Overbuilt, sure, but you have to keep that in perspective of other markets. It could have been a lot worse. Our foreclosure % of sales was about 7% since the bust, compared to 30% in ATL and similar percentages in other second home markets. Our home sales turned in 3Q08, when most other markets took 2 more years of beatings.

I also agree that the municipalities are playing small ball, but they are only as good as the people electing them. Look no further than the recent, horrifyingly embarrassing Dadeville Mayor / Clerk / Council spat. Cringe worthy. I can't figure out why all of the interests don't rally around some common group like the LM Economic Development Alliance that can stretch across the lines to get things done. $20,000 spent on one good promo video goes a long way.

Name:	roswellric -	Reply
Subject:	Right...
Date:	2/7/2013 10:29:15 PM (updated 2/7/2013 10:30:06 PM)

Grossly overbuilt was an overstatement but I guess I'm not used to 5 years and no full recovery. Other markets particularly in FL - where there is resort type housing - seems to be recovering faster though and our market here is not quite as dazzling.

You are the best at merchandising here. I think you get it. But we still need the planning and marketing by developers to get to the right product considering location and demographics and a plan to reach the right target market. Brokers have to dance with available partners.... Developers usually blame the brokers for ill conceived product and marketing :-)

We need leadership that will unify the area's interests. I think you are the guy to do it!

Name:	Osms -	Reply
Subject:	Permanent or weekenders?
Date:	2/8/2013 9:17:57 AM

Development of the lake is pretty much left up to the two landowners, APCo and Russell Lands. While I have no idea how much these two control, I would guess it exceeds 95% of the undeveloped waterfront. The Ridge, the last Russell project, seems to be owned almost exclusively by weekenders and the homes are priced such that full time retirees may not choose as retirement locations, so where do you expand the lake's base. I feel the retirement, full time owner is the market that has been terribly overlooked by developers, real estate, and cities in trouble like AC. The lake economy cannot survive on weekenders, so the powers that be would do well to promote this area as a retirement haven. Russell could help itself by developing and promoting a reasonably priced area designed especially for the retirement age folks. Replace unemployed mill workers with good middle class retirees.

Name:	roswellric -	Reply
Subject:	Permanent or weekenders?
Date:	2/8/2013 11:29:51 AM

I'm sure that Russell has done its homework in their developments - for their target market. I was thinking of some of the errors made on the leftover parcels - condiminiums, lower grade single family and other developments.

Most of the stagnation has come from the financial situation that so heavily affected real estate. And you are correct. Economic downturns have affected second homes, most especially the upper end. I would think those homes are typically bought by "small" business owners and I suspect they are holding their cash close to see what's going to happen to the economy. Maybe some are paying up to get deep discounts at other established resort locations?

Attracting permanent folks in numbers is a great way to go but many won't afford new waterfront developments...just access but that should be OK. But they would need amenities.... shopping, access to the lake, golf courses and the like. And of course you would have to really know the buyers and do highly targeted merchandising to them.

But there is the Chicken-Egg problem with attracting permanents. To attract the retail shopping and amenities they expect, you need the population. But you won't get the population until you have the amenities. Great medical is already here at the Russell medical community. Transportation arteries are really good.

Wouldn't you like to see the marketing work the Villages did in Florida. They certainly figured their market out. Cheeck out the link. Probably what you were describing.

URL: The Villages

Name:	John C -	Reply
Subject:	market price
Date:	2/8/2013 1:08:42 PM

I think it's a complete fallacy to think that Russell Lands or Alabama Power is setting the market price. The market price of anything here is set by supply and demand. Right now I have 4 homes under contract, working to get closed. During the negotations, none of the 8+ parties involved ever called RL or AP to ask them what to do.

To wit, anytime I am listing a home or lot for a private owner, I have never had them tell me to list it at, say, 50% of market price just to attract a permanent retiree. For example, if I think a lot is worth 120k, I have never had an owner say, "you know John, that's just too much. Even though someone will likely pay that, I would rather list it at 60 and only sell to a nice, permanent retiree."

I agree that, in the long term, supply is somewhat controlled by Alabama Power and Russell Lands in the sense that, if they wanted to, they could put every inch of waterfront for sale tomorrow. But to say they can fine tune and control market price is just completely incorrect. One glance at the ~236 homes and ~25 lots that sold through the MLS in '12 shows you that.

Name:	roswellric -	Reply
Subject:	market price
Date:	2/8/2013 1:46:48 PM

I don't think I said anything like that. ????

I was responding to the prior post that suggested the area would benefit from a permanent population in or around the lake. So if through marketing and demographic work you decide to try to build to that market you give them what they want at an acceptable price point...and you know what that is through market research. And provide the community amenities that they need and want.

Russell is sophisticated enough to build to their target market. They know who their buyers are ahead of time. They don't just throw out something and see what it will bring and see if it will make money.

What am I missing?

Name:	Ulysses E. McGill -	Reply
Subject:	Aquapalooza!
Date:	2/8/2013 10:55:49 PM

Bring it back and all problems will be solved.....that's my story and I'm sticking to it!

Name:	Osms -	Reply
Subject:	John
Date:	2/9/2013 12:30:38 AM

We're talking about two different things. You're talking about sales, primarily of existing homes, and I'm talking about the future of the lake economy. Show me one sizable, developable piece of property for say 200 homes that is not owned by RL or APCo. RL did a very good job of developing upscale weekend oriented properties, but besides sales commissions to agents what real economic impact do those weekender properties have on the area? I thought I was pretty clear when I talked about targeting the retirees as a way to improve the lake economy. An example on such development is Stillwaters. It's old but it's still growing and it offers a retiree a reasonable value and a good economic impact on the area. Have you noticed that practically all of the successful restaurants around the lake are close to Stillwaters? BTW, if APCo and RL don't set the market prices who set the prices for the new Emerald Shores lots?

Name:	roswellric -	Reply
Subject:	Home Prices....
Date:	2/9/2013 9:53:28 AM

Here's one of the best one page viewpoints I have ever seen on the Housing Mania, causes and dangers of reinflating the bubble.

" This desire to simply reinflate the collapsed bubble would likely yield the same disastrous result again."

URL: The Great Mania

Name:	realfast64 -	Reply
Subject:	Right... but....
Date:	2/9/2013 12:20:49 PM

I think any monies threw toward LM economic all. is a waste of money!!! Look at their record of jobs brought to the area 8.00-15.00$ one can not afford any property on this lake. What we need is a new group with vision one with fresh ideas. Ideas that are realistic with our nations economic condition.. We need a plan that no other areas have used. Every small town are trying to attract bussiness also. We have to offer things that others do not have. Our beautiful "Lake Martin" Is just that!! We need to diversify and what i mean by that is not just textiles,not just car parts, not just timber but a wide varity. Competition is good if you dont belive that just look at Blue Creek!! We could be very competive in the job market if we had a new group trying to attract jobs. Every time we have a new group try to do this they are met with opposition! They are beat down.. I hope to live long enough for people in this area to realize we are where we are today because of the "OLD WATCH" failed leadership policies!!!

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	What do you expect....
Date:	2/9/2013 5:17:36 PM

The economic development folks look at their labor force, who's unemployed, who will work, and then they try to match up the company with the needs. The Lake Martin area ain't exactly full of degreed wizards that are panting for a job. You have to bring in industry to match the skills of the people. Lots of textile workers moved into home construction as long as it lasted, now they're probably glad to have the car parts factories. Don't look for a change until the education level gets better.

Name:	realfast64 -	Reply
Subject:	What do you expect....
Date:	2/10/2013 9:51:06 AM

Well Mr. Wix I have never seen a company come to a town and start from scratch. Auburn has a very diverse community because of many forms of industry. The old watch has let several good/great companies go other places. A communty can not exist with only retires. Studies have shown that after age 50/55 ones spending drops dramaticaly. When someone doesnt spend goverments do not collect taxes. When taxes are not collected goverment cant spend, roads dont get paved, grasses are not cut, sewers and power supply go lacking. The infastructure i am talking about are supported by the monies you spend in your local area, not the tax that comes out of your pay check, but the taxes you pay at the gas station, groce.store,dept store,resturants,any locl bussiness. But in order for me and you us to do that the area needs good paying jobs quality industry wether it be textiles or tech jobs.
We have a GREAT area and attraction here that is not being properly marketed. We have a Goose that has LAID a GOLDEN EGG!! Let be careful not to break that Egg because when you boil it, fry it, scramble it, you only have two things left a broke shell, and a few days later some form of fertilizer!

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	What do you expect....
Date:	2/10/2013 2:46:44 PM

I don't disagree with you assessment , but consider the Auburn economy. Auburn has the university which continues to feed the community with educated folks thru graduates and faculty. It has a secondary school system the is one of the top systems in the South, it's a place people want to live and work. I agree that for decades the mill village mentality by mill owners has discouraged any well paying company from moving to the area so wages would not go up for their mill. As a result we now have an area stuck in the 50's. To climb out will take generations, if it ever happens. Look at the Black Belt, same situation. We have the lake and we have weekenders and retirees. Which of those two groups can provide the best economic boost to the area?

Name:	realfast64 -	Reply
Subject:	What do you expect....
Date:	2/10/2013 5:49:40 PM

when you and this area stop saying "yeah but". We have every thing and more here,but it seams no one sees it!!! We have so much here but some yould rather cry and say "yeah but". We all need to stop saying how bad it is here and start building on what we do have and it IS MORE THAN RETIRMENT!!! This area has so much to offer and we need to market it BETTER!!

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	I share your pain,
Date:	2/10/2013 9:51:28 PM

You appear to be a native of the area and I understand your opinion, but sometimes the truth hurts. The time to turn the area around is now, but it will not happen over night, it will take decades. Meanwhile promote what you've got and that's retirees. You will be amazed at the talent that most of he retirees bring with them. If the locals could quit playing "us and them" and put some of these retirees to work saving this economy, you'd be surprised at what could be accomplished.

Name:	RCHRR -	Reply
Subject:	I share your pain,
Date:	2/11/2013 9:17:11 AM

Sounds to me that you two need to pack up and move to lake Altoona in the Atlanta area. I like the lake just the way it is, better yet I would love for the lake to go back in time to the way it was 30yrs ago without all of the big boats and people that think they are better than the mill mentality folks. You don't relize that more is not always better just ask some of the people in Auburn what happened to their most "Beautiful Place on The Plains".

Name:	John C -	Reply
Subject:	John
Date:	2/11/2013 3:52:26 PM

whether it's Willow Point, Emerald shores, or your house, the seller sets the asking aka list price. The market sets the market price. If I put my house for sale for $12 million, that's the list price. It doesn't mean that's what it's worth. Therefore if, e.g., AP sets a list price of $X for Lot A in Emerald Shores, that's not "setting the market price." That's setting a listing or asking price. What will the market set as the value? Remains to be seen.

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