Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	More bad economic news
Date:	2/3/2016 8:31:18 AM

As I have repeated often, the average time between recessions is 57 months and this weak recovery is getting very long in the tooth.  Below is another hint that one may be coming.  Combine that with the lackluster GDP growth, stagnant wages and low labor participation rate and it may be inevitable.

We have implemented our recession planning for our company.  The good news for our industry is we tend to lag a recession but also lag the recovery.  I am hoping this is a false warning and it holds off for a while as the last 7 years have been enough of a grind.

http://news.yahoo.com/u-ceos-unleash-recession-fears-earnings-calls-190343404--sector.html

Name:	lucky67 -	Reply
Subject:	More bad economic news
Date:	2/3/2016 12:14:24 PM

yep--im getting more calls from professionals about how to save their home//options of deed in lieu //bkrupcy, etc; still a lot of debt out there  & FED has no idea of what to do--global economies are dictating our economy; just think--WHAT IF CHINA EXERCISED THE ACCELLERATION CLAUSE ON OUR DEBT &  CALLED THEIR NOTE DUE & PAYABLE ??

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	More bad economic news
Date:	2/3/2016 12:28:35 PM

China calling their debt would be tantamount to cutting off their noses to spite their faces.  I think they much prefer the leverage they have and would be loathe to give it up, especially since their economy relies so much on our buying their products.  Like it or hate it, our economies are intertwined and as the U.S. economy goes, so goes theirs.  The political leadership in China has no desire having a populace up in arms.  

But your anectodal information is not encouraging for the economy.  That is the byproduct of having had such a weak recovery.  We have very little cushion to absorb another recession.  And the Fed has very few arrows left in their quiver to soften the landing.  For the first time in a long time I am seeing a number of articles discussing the potential for negative interest rates.  That is like crack cocaine, once you have that cheap money in the system it is very hard to extract yourself from that morasse.  Just ask the Japanese how that worked out for them.

Name:	lucky67 -	Reply
Subject:	More bad economic news
Date:	2/3/2016 2:24:36 PM

on the "bright " side; if you do hit another recession with LOW interest rates, U.S. Govt  could refi all their  debt ( assuming they would qualify !!)  

Name:	Talullahhound -	Reply
Subject:	More bad economic news
Date:	2/3/2016 3:34:15 PM

One downside to low interest rates is that it could prompt another housing bubble and another crash.  I saw a report yesterday that  BP  laying off thousands of people  It's just a matter of time before all those other oil companies and the related companies will be laying off people too.  I read a financial article yesterday that said it is "too late" for the oil industry. 

Name:	Buteye -	Reply
Subject:	More bad economic news
Date:	2/3/2016 4:13:01 PM

Just curious, what industry are you in?

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	More bad economic news
Date:	2/3/2016 4:21:15 PM

Environmental and engineering services.  Work mostly for multinational corporations and law firms in the U.S. and Canada.

Name:	Buteye -	Reply
Subject:	More bad economic news
Date:	2/3/2016 10:06:18 PM (updated 2/3/2016 10:08:50 PM)

Thanks. i always value your observations because i think your views provide an excellent description of the sad state of affairs our country is in today. How are we ever going to find a way to convince those that want more government freebies and do not understand their need to be in the work force only creates more debt that cannot be sustained by the federal government? As i said in an earlier post, printing more dollars without any addition to the GNP will eventually lead to destruction. Allowing our national debt to double during the last seven years is a disgrace.

Name:	lucky67 -	Reply
Subject:	More bad economic news
Date:	2/4/2016 9:44:55 AM

TODAY SCHWAB----domestic economic reports showed jobless claims rose more than expected and 4Q productivity fell and unit labor costs rose

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	More bad economic news
Date:	2/4/2016 10:44:55 AM

All the signs point to an economic slowdown which may come sooner than expected.  Makes me nauseous to even think about another recession after so many years of this pathetic recovery.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	More bad economic news
Date:	2/4/2016 10:52:27 AM

De nada.  I just call it the way I see it and the way I see it is not very promising.  

I agree about the national debt issue, especially when you factor in unfunded liabilities from our social programs.  One would think we could look at what is happening in Europe to understand this is a road we don't want to go down.  But when being Santa Claus with government largesse buys votes it is hard to imagine us being able to avoid the coming disaster.  Sadly, by the time millenials reach our age and realize they are the victims of generational theft it will be too late.  I would feel sorry for them but they seem to be drawn to European style democratic socialism like misquitoes to the blue light zapper.  By the time they realize what they have done it may be too late.  

Liberals were very clever in gaining control of academia and the media and creating an entire generation that simply lack the ability to think logically and rationally and learn from history.  Socialism has never worked and will never work but the siren call of all these freebies is tough to withstand when your brain has been addled by liberal professors and the media.