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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
LM Home Sales Up & Prices Down
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Date:
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3/13/2007 7:01:09 PM
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A couple of days ago the Alex City Outlook had an article on Lake Martin being unaffected by statewide home sales being down. I linked it under this forum's post "no but did you see this one." Basically, it stated two bits of juxtaposing data - Lake Martin home sales were up 16% but prices fell 15% in one month.
After talking to a lot of folks about it, I wrote a post on my blog on the subject and included my email to the Outlook that provides my take on the contradiction. It reminds me that my statistics professor at BSC used to always stress the effect of the margin of error.
URL: Lake Martin Home Prices Not Affected By Sales Drop?
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| Name: |
PC Al
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| Subject: |
LM Home Sales Up & Prices Down
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Date:
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3/13/2007 7:14:28 PM
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What I still don’t understand is the $181,310 average for the area. Assuming the area includes the lake itself and there has been nothing up our way sold for less than $500,000, then not much must have sold on the lake. The $181,310 average times 29 homes sold is a total of only $5,257,990. Two or three houses in the Ridge would total that. What gives?
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| Name: |
Maverick
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| Subject: |
LM Home Sales Up & Prices Down
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Date:
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3/13/2007 8:04:52 PM
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The key word in the article is AREA, the article does not state Lakefront property, it states the Lake Martin Area. So the "Area" includes off lake sales as well.
And based on the actual average sales price in the article I would gather the majority of the sales where off lake sales.
As at an average of $181,000 or even $215,000 I will take all the lake front homes I can afford. As based on my research there is no such thing, unless you are way up in a slough with 2 months of water and a 1 BR / 1Bath cinder block structure without plumbing and 50' of water frontage.
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| Name: |
Feb
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| Subject: |
Ditto
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Date:
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3/13/2007 8:48:47 PM
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To the observations and comments of PC and Mav. I wonder how many homes if any directly on the Lake have dropped in value.
I bet only those way overpriced.
I know of only one place currently on the market in one sector of the Lake. It is on an average lot with a below average cabin. Asking price is in the upper $600K. It also has a seaplane landing on a frequent basic in the same slough. This one could be overprice.
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
John C
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Date:
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3/13/2007 10:03:31 PM
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You're a realtor and have access to closing stats that the public doesn't have; do us a favor and segregate out the lake sales over the past couple of months and let's see what the lake action shows. Something tells me you guys get better data than we do.
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| Name: |
JohnGalt
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| Subject: |
Ditto
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Date:
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3/13/2007 10:14:26 PM
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I don't know if there is a formula for a value for lake property on this lake. Some people want to be near Chuck's for the action some people want to be as far away as possible. Some folks want a big water view some want to be back in a slough. Dont's think it's as concrete as we make it out to be. Just like a lot of things in life it's emotion that controls our buying patterns.
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| Name: |
noagenda
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| Subject: |
no disrespect.......
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Date:
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3/13/2007 10:22:26 PM
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I appreciate your POV but, intuitively, it feels like propoganda.
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| Name: |
JohnGalt
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| Subject: |
no disrespect.......
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Date:
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3/13/2007 10:23:56 PM
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please explain
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
noagenda......
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Date:
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3/13/2007 10:52:35 PM
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Were you responding to my post or John C's? If you use the recipient's name in the subject line it'll help.
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
osms- a reply
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Date:
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3/14/2007 1:02:36 AM
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OK - if you recall the actual numbers were 25 homes sold in December at an average of $213,716 and 29 sold in January for an average of $181,310.
To show you the sensitivity of these stats to a change in just one sale, consider:
If one of the waterfront homes (which sold on Jan 10 for $820,000) would have been closed in December, the numbers would have been 26 homes sold in December for an average of $237,034 and 28 sold in January for an average of only $158,499.
Similarly, if one of the waterfront homes sold in December (12/19/06 for $1,075,000) actually closed in January, the numbers would change to 24 homes sold in December at an average of $177,829 and 30 sold in January for an average of $211,100. Quite a difference.
My point to all this is when you have such a small market, one or two sales here or there really change the statistics for that market. If you read my email to the Outlook (in the comments section of my post on my blog) December had proportionately way more waterfront homes sold so it drove the average way up.
It's like - if someone asked you - "how did your football team play today?" and you answered "they scored 20 points." Per se, that doesn't tell you much. Naturally, the other person would wonder, how many points did the other team score? And maybe - what is your team's scoring average? The other team's points against average? The more questions you ask and answer, the clearer the picture is.
For anyone trying to sift through our market, I think it's helpful seperate sales in categories like water / nonwaterfront; deeded / leased lots; single family / condo; etc. When people ask me "how's the market?" I try to narrow my response to answer them most accurately. I almost never quote general market statistics because they could be misleading.
URL: Lake Martin Voice
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
John C
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Date:
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3/14/2007 7:57:14 AM
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Thanks for your reply. I understand everything you have said, but you haven't answered my question. Do you have access to data that is Lake Martin specific?? What happens in Dadeville, Jackson Gap, Union, etc. doesn't really interest most of the readers of this forum.
I speak for myself, but I think most readers would like to have access to the market statistics that interest them most--their investment ON Lake Martin. Any info you could supply us all would be greatly appreciated.
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
John C to osms
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Date:
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3/14/2007 10:56:55 AM
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Sure - I have all the info on the MLS. As I said on my blog, during January 07, 5 waterfront homes sold. Their average selling price was $519,700. The lowest was at $275,000. The highest was $820,000. A pretty big spread.
In December 06, 10 waterfront homes were sold at an average of $532,740 - highest at $1,075,000 and lowest at $225,000 - an even bigger spread.
I am a numbers guy to the core. I can't help it, that's just how I am. But a true numbers guy will always put statistics in their proper perspective. When you are dealing with a "sample size" this small, I think it doesn't make sense to look at averages. I think it is better to look at each sale on its own and try to make sense of what it means to its particlular market segment. I won't bore the readers here with my take on every one of these sales. Osms (or anyone else), if you would like that, go to my blog, and email me or call me, I will be glad to go over every single one of them.
While the "public" can't access sold data, you can look at things for sale now. And, you can seperate water / nonwaterfront as you search. Just click on the link below and search the MLS all you want. I pay for it, so it's free to you. And you don't have to put any personal info in to search. All I ask is, if you see something that you would like to talk about, call me.
Also to all readers - feel free to leave comments on my blog - positive or negative. It's a free country. I'll leave them on there, and it will let me know what you would like to discuss. Thanks osms for a great discussion here.
URL: Lake Martin Voice MLS Search
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| Name: |
Maverick
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| Subject: |
John C ??
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Date:
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3/14/2007 1:38:32 PM
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John just curious if you could breakdwon the data even further into sub categories: with the averages
Condo Sold
Waterfront Lots Sold
Leased Lot with Homes Sold
Deeded Lots with Home Sold
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| Name: |
Osms
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| Subject: |
That would be great info..
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Date:
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3/14/2007 2:51:03 PM
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| Name: |
noagenda
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| Subject: |
no disrespect.......
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Date:
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3/14/2007 3:26:42 PM
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All I am saying is that the real state industry seems to always put an overly optimistic spin on the local market dynamics. I do think lot footage and square feet matter. I understand that the quality equation comes into play, but I can deduce that on my own terms. My comments are not intended to be mean spirited, I would probably do the same thing if I was in the industry. The bottom line is location, real comparables and the economy. Every time I have had to buy a home......and I have purchased several due to relocations........I always seem to have to pry square footage and recent comparables out of my agents. I want macro and micro information in order to make an informed decision.
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| Name: |
Feb
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| Subject: |
Thank You for the MLS Link
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Date:
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3/14/2007 5:04:02 PM
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I am enjoying playing with the link. It is interesting to see what I could buy with the money I have and am currently in the middle of investing on my Lake place. So far, I am feeling good after looking at the comps from the MLS you gave us. I know building is at times an aggravation, but I think there is something to be said about creating your personal dream. I would be feeling pretty awful if the comps told a different story.
I bet those on the Forum who are planning to buy on the Lake in the next few years will enjoy the insight gained from the MLS link.
Thanks again.
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
That would be great info..
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Date:
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3/15/2007 1:02:59 AM
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Let me again preach caution of trying to draw too many conclusions on looking at only 2 months' sales data. December and January are traditionally the two slowest months in the market. It is like taking a picture and timing the fractions of the 2nd furlong of the Kentucky Derby - with 1 more mile in the race left to run - and trying to tell how every horse will run the entire race. Just for the record, I would give a similar warning if you asked about the two hottest two months of the year. Same thing - it is only a snapshot, and not a fair picture of the market in general, IMHO.
That being said, for informational purposes only, in January 2007 zero waterfront lots closed. In December 2006, 3 closed for an average of about $300,000. In January 2007, 1 condo closed at about $275,000. In December 2006, 2 condos closed for an average of about $240,000. No leased lot waterfront homes closed during the two months.
URL: Lake Martin Voice
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
to no agenda-
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Date:
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3/15/2007 1:34:41 AM
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I appreciate your candor. I agree with everything you said except for analyzing psf data on the water at Lake Martin. I stick by comparables. The only time I use psf is when I figure what it would take to rebuild anew. If it means anything to you, I use psf analysis in almost every other market I deal with (residential and commercial), because usually it's a great thumbnail indicator. As to your comment that most realtors don't back up their opinions with comparables or per sf data (which is derived from comparables) - agreed again. I have experienced that, too, and have been shocked. To each his/her own. That's not me, though. As to me (as a realtor) being too optomistic, well, I don't know what to say on that one, I guess that's your take on me. I can only invite you to continue to read my blog, comment, challenge me when you disagree, and draw your own conclusions over the long term. My goals are to be transparent, give my own opinion and give it frankly, back up that opinion with sound rationale, and be nice while doing it all. With a handle like "noagenda" - I hope you appreciate that.
URL: Lake Martin Voice
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| Name: |
Ulysses E. McGill
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| Subject: |
That would be great info..
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Date:
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3/15/2007 3:20:56 AM
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I know at least one waterfront lot closed in January, because my father and I bought it.
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
That would be great info..
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Date:
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3/15/2007 2:52:26 PM
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?? I don't know what to tell you. I double checked the MLS and it's not in there. Maybe the listing agent entered it as closed in December or February for some reason. ??
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| Name: |
LifeTime Laker
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| Subject: |
maybe it was FSBO
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Date:
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3/15/2007 5:47:56 PM
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| Name: |
noagenda
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| Subject: |
to no agenda-
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Date:
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3/16/2007 12:07:21 PM
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Please understand my observations as intended. Not a personal POV on you. My comments are a industry perspective.
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| Name: |
Ulysses E. McGill
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| Subject: |
That would be great info..
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Date:
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3/16/2007 7:59:41 PM
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I'm not sure it ever made it into MLS.
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