| Name: |
dooblebug
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| Subject: |
Resale values
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Date:
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11/13/2007 10:49:57 PM
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Does anyone have any ideas what the lake levels are going to do to the resale value of property on Lake Martin? Also, who is the level going to affect more, condo values or single home values?
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| Name: |
ecstasypoint
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| Subject: |
Resale values
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Date:
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11/14/2007 9:31:07 AM
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This is a good question and I hope folks will jump in and give their 2 cents worth. But obviously it would take a crystal ball to answer it with any accuracy. I've watched the market closely for years. What I'm noticing is that there are a number of lower end properties available, presumeably many without water right now. The high end stuff is holding steady, and I think that is all wishful hype. Real estate is a gamblers' market, and it strikes me that it is all about buyers' perceptions. We are getting a bad reputation here, and my guess is that we are not magically going to come out of that negative hype easily, no matter how wishful everyone is. I predict that your property will be worth today exactly what it was last year, and not a penny more. By next year, maybe less, maybe more. It all depends on what happens, and I, unlike lots of forum readers, have no idea what will happen to the lake level regardless of all protestations and proclamations made here. I do think people forget quickly, though, so if we can get some lake recreation going on this summer, we might see gains again.
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LOL....over the past 100 years, there have been very few if any investments more solid than real estate. At times, market euphoria may cause the market to get ahead of itself, but to a well informed and careful buyer, it's about as safe as it gets in the investment world.
.... there will always be a demand for waterfront property (and the water will come back).
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
Agree 100%
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Date:
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11/14/2007 12:53:14 PM
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The demand will always be there and this temporary downturn is just that, temporary. I have no concerns whatsoever about my realestate holdings.
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| Name: |
ecstasypoint
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| Subject: |
Agree 100%
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Date:
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11/14/2007 2:59:45 PM
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So lamont and jlazc, are you saying that you think your property gained the 20% this year that it probably did every other year? I have bought and sold a number of properties on this lake, and this is the first time in years that value didn't increase significantly. Temporary. I sure hope so. I agree 100% that one must be careful and informed when investing in real estate, but I also think that requires having the capacity to consider national trends beyond our own limited scopes. As far as condos vs. single family homes, in my opinion, it depends on the waterfront. Many of the condos are on deeper water, which should help them retain value, and grow with everything else that will be on water in the future. I'm aware of houses that used to be waterfront that don't have any water in sight, and they are now worth about what they were 7-10 years ago.
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
Absolutely Wrong!
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Date:
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11/14/2007 3:58:06 PM
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I know my lake house has not appreciated much in the last year but, it more than doubled 2 years ago over a 2 year period. Average it out and the numbers speak for themselves. Also, I know of a house that sold a year ago for 490,000 and sold again less than a year later for 545,000 with no water! There are investors out there that look longer term than simply the next quarter. Relax, give it time, and everything will be just fine.
And please Jim, don't give me that fool and his money stuff. Thanks.
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| Name: |
JIM
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| Subject: |
Absolutely Wrong!
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Date:
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11/14/2007 4:02:33 PM
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OK, lamont. I will let it slide this time.
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
You Da Man Jim
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Date:
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11/14/2007 4:10:24 PM
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| Name: |
LifeTime Laker
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| Subject: |
Absolutely WRONG!
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Date:
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11/14/2007 7:29:08 PM
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I bought my house 7 years ago. I can't see water. No it did not increase the astronomical percentages this year. But it sure ain't worth what I paid 7 years ago. It has more than tripled in value. I wouldn't sell for a penny less today than I would have taken last year before the water crisis set in. I don't even know anybody that would think there property has gone down, much less reduced by 2/3.
You are way off the mark there.
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
Gamblers market?
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Date:
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11/14/2007 9:10:25 PM
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"gamblers market" - I think that is hyperbole.
I agree that values have not increased from Aug 06 to Aug 07. But LM waterfront properties averaged 30% PER YEAR from 2000 to 2006. So, averaged out, still an excellent investment.
The last buyer's market was 1999 into 2000, when there was little if any increase. It's not unprecedented. It's just life. Back then the tech stock bubble burst and hurt a lot of people's "free money" - and rates were at 9.5%.
I don't think we'll see those 50% price reductions that are all over the news in other places like Florida. That comes from entire developments that are owned by one builder. There aren't really any places like that on the lake. While there are many spec homes for sale, most are still by private citizens, who aren't under as much pressure to sell.
I do think sellers need to lower their prices, though.
By the way, I recently read in the WSJ where Warren Buffet is buying CDOs now. Collateralized Debt Obligations are bonds backed by home mortgages - one financial instrument that many say fueled the subprime lending panic. Anyway, Buffet is a buyer - apparently thinking that they are valued too low due to investors fear and media hype.
What does that tell you?
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| Name: |
Feb
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| Subject: |
Resale values
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Date:
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11/14/2007 9:40:46 PM
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I suspect when Atlanta finishes drinking Lanier dry, Georgia buyers will be looking for property on Lake Martin.
Now is the time to buy water view property and wait for it to become water access property again.
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| Name: |
ecstasypoint
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| Subject: |
Absolutely WRONG!
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Date:
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11/15/2007 8:24:12 AM
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The only way to be certain how far off the mark I am is to go ahead and put your house on the market and see what it will bring. Don't worry if you sell because you can get another; there are several right down your slough that no one will touch with a ten foot pole. If someone does buy those places on grass there, I would still say they have a gambling mentality or its the only hope they have of getting near the lake, but at this point not very near. The bright side is that if the water comes back, people will buy them and enjoy them as I did for years over there in your neighborhood. It's the "if" that makes it a gamble...yes and I know...y'all are certain the water is coming back. I know. But obviously some buyers are not as certain, otherwise there wouldn't be so many cheap houses going unbought on grass near what used to be the lake.
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
Absolutely WRONG!
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Date:
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11/15/2007 9:29:49 AM
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Is there a slough in particular you are referring to? Are you being specific or just generalizing?
/
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| Name: |
LifeTime Laker
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| Subject: |
Absolutely WRONG!
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Date:
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11/15/2007 9:34:28 AM
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He doesn't know WHAT he is talking about. He thinks prices have rolled back to 2000 levels. If this was true, and he knew it, and is as big in real estate as he claims to be, he would be knocking on doors trying to buy half the lake. He isn't. He is here spouting off nonsense.
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| Name: |
rude evin
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| Subject: |
Absolutely WRONG!
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Date:
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11/15/2007 10:02:09 AM
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Too early for the medication........ :-}
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| Name: |
lamont
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| Subject: |
Absolutely WRONG!
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Date:
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11/15/2007 10:41:39 AM
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Regarding Gambling...... Like my Pappy used to say, "No balls, no blue chips."
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| Name: |
Feb
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| Subject: |
Gamblers market?
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Date:
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11/15/2007 12:19:10 PM
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If you can afford to buy now, then you have a tremendous selection and should make some offers as it is a Buyer's market. Low ball and see what happens.
If you can not afford to buy, then lay-in a large quanity of Kleenex tissues since it will probably never be this good again. Then stop complaining about not being able to buy in 2008 at 1975 prices. It ain't going to happen. Use those tissues and not the forum to cry on.
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| Name: |
greycove
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| Subject: |
Lake Harding in Georgia...
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Date:
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11/15/2007 2:21:43 PM
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should be a case example. It is located on the Georgia-South Carolina border. I think they had a period several years ago when the lake was well below full pool over several years. Maybe someone knows or knows of someone who has info on house prices during the down years.
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| Name: |
LifeTime Laker
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| Subject: |
Absolutely WRONG!
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Date:
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11/15/2007 2:53:25 PM
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You are right, the lake WILL NEVER BE FULL AGAIN. How could I have been so stupid to think that it might rain again at some point. Obviuosly OwlGore is right. Global warming has taken away our rain forever. My only hope to have water front property again is for the sea level to rise and mybe I will be lucky enough to have beachfront.
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Where do you get 20%? I never said anything of the sort nor do I expect that kind of gain (no market can or will sustain double digit gains for any length of time). There have been many years when property went up very little if any on this lake and years where it went crazy, but it certainly is not "gambling" to purchase property if you have minimal common sense.
Show me any waterfront property that sold 7-10 years ago, and I will buy most of them (possibly all) today for the same price. I'll even tack on the governments annual inflation index if I really like the place....I'll be waiting with my checkbook, so please hurry.
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| Name: |
Webmaster
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| Subject: |
Lake Harding in Georgia...
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Date:
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11/15/2007 7:35:25 PM
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Lake Harding is on the Georgia / Alabama Border. There is a Lake Hartwell on the Georgia / South Carolina border. I'm not certain which one you are referring to, but Lake Hartwell has had some low levels.
http://www.mylakehartwell.com/Maps.asp
http://harding.uslakes.info/Maps.asp
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| Name: |
Feb
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| Subject: |
Agree 100%
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Date:
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11/15/2007 7:58:01 PM
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You are right on jlazc. Some folks are just wishing and hoping for a miracle or non-existant bargain.
Did anyone venture to ask why there are no foreclosures on Lake property?
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| Name: |
LifeTime Laker
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| Subject: |
Agree 100%
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Date:
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11/15/2007 8:20:00 PM
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I bought mine 7 years ago. I am trying to sell it for 75 cents on the dollar of the purchase price back then. After all, the lake has NEVER been this low, it is NEVER going to rain again, the grass in the lake bed will NEVER go away, I can NEVER get my boat in the water again, I will NEVER see the lake again.
I never thought I would be in this position. NEGATIVE EQUITY on my lake house. I may owe more than it is worth. I am so glad that some of you are willing to grace me with such great offers.
I wonder if expoint can show ONE instance of a place that sold for 7 year old prices. I would just about bet my house against it. I say almost becasue there may be a transaction that is NOT an 'arms length' transaction out there that caused his confusion.
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Well...... if you insist, I'll bring my checkbook.
Let me know what type of liquor to bring; it's the least I can do since the gambling habit got the best of you.
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| Name: |
roswellric
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| Subject: |
Gamblers market?
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Date:
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11/18/2007 8:43:21 PM
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Tells me that he knows which CDO's to buy :-)
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