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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
Nov-08 Real Estate sales
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Date:
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12/28/2008 11:26:17 PM
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Hey all - see below for November's results. Good news is we beat 07 again. on the other hand, there is still a lot of inventory out there........
URL: Real Estate Sales Results - Nov 2008
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| Name: |
water_watcher
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| Subject: |
Nov-08 Real Estate sales
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Date:
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12/29/2008 9:22:51 AM
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At today's mortgage rates there should not be a reason to wait any longer. I know people are scared, but come on, lake property should hold value much better than traditional residential.
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| Name: |
Catherine
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| Subject: |
John, do you have access to...
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Date:
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12/29/2008 11:03:17 AM
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Total dollars for those sales in 2006, 2007, and 2008? I would be interested to see what the actual revenues from the different volumes in sales is, but I suspect I already know the answer. I just think it would be interesting to see how much the "average sale" has fallen in the past few months or years.
Also, do you have any update or info on the struggles within the Ridge? What is the total inventory there, and how many of those are in or facing foreclosure? Are there still only 2 "Approved Builders" remaining in the Ridge, or has that number increased (I know Russell Lands is getting back in the building business, but have they allowed, or have any other builders expressed interest in building those type homes)?
Please don't go to a lot of trouble, and if you don't have access to this information, would you mind at least sharing your impressions and experience about the average revenue per sale over the past 2-3 years?
Thanks in advance for any insight you can provide!
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| Name: |
p.c.
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| Subject: |
John, do you have access to...
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Date:
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12/29/2008 11:36:40 AM
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Who are approved builders for Russell Lands in the Ridge and the new addition to Willow Point?
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
08 and 07 sales - $ figures
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Date:
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12/29/2008 11:51:03 AM
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Yes I have access to all info in the MLS. 07 and 08 numbers are easy to get but 06 would take some digging but is do-able. If anyone is really interested please email me privately and I can run the numbers for you. But in general I would say that 06 would be 20% better if dollars follow #s sold trends.
I got the below by running a report on the Lake Martin MLS this morning, so the usual disclaimers apply, that is, that all info is not guaranteed but deemed reliable, and doesn't inlcude sales made outside of the MLS, for example, private developers, person to person sales, bank sales, etc.
Dollar figure of waterfront homes sold - 1-1-08 - 11-30-08 = $87,964,229
ditto sold 1-1-07 thru 11-30-07 = $99,600,693 or a decrease in total sales volume of about 11.7%.
FYI the total homes sold in this period was 152 in 2007 and 133 in 2008, or a decrease of 12.5%, or further proof that prices have not necessarily moved lower, but total sales have. Another way to say it would be that the decrease in sales volume is more directly related to lack of sales than lowering of prices.
So basically it confirms what we know in our guts, and see on my monthly results - sellers can price aggressively and market tirelessly and still stand out from the pack.
Incidentally the total list price of waterfront homes offered for sale (aka active volume) in Nov 07 was $272,996,614 versus $314,818,591 in 2008 - a 15% INCREASE while number of sales decreased 11.7%. Again, this confirms what we know, that is, that more is FOR SALE in 08, and more SOLD in 07, classic buyer market conditions.
I also agree with posters that point out that lower rates are huge potential impact. Consider that at this time last year or in 06 you could be dealing with a 7% mortgage payment, whereas now you can get that same loan at sub 5%. The difference in your payment alone is a whopping 33% decrease. Combine that with a savings on the purchase price (15% is pretty normal) and it means that we are finally seeing some help on the affordability scale.
Translated from nerd jargon = there's more sellers than buyers so prices are lower - rates are lower so it helps your payment.
Mathmatically, rates can't go much lower, so it becomes a matter of guessing if you can time the absolute bottom of the market while waiting to buy. If you think you can time the bottom, ask sellers how their attempts at timing the top went. Many of the folks I talked to in 06 about selling decided to hold out and get another year's gain and sell in 07. Ouch.
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| Name: |
Catherine
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| Subject: |
Thank you John!
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Date:
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12/29/2008 12:13:02 PM
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That is very interesting information, and really not what I expected to see at all (well, at least not as obviously as I thought it might be).
I know this is completely unscientific, but using those numbers, the AVERAGE sale was about $661K in 2008, and the AVERAGE sale in 2007 was about $655K, virtually identical.
I really expected to see lower volume AND lower "average sale" in 2008, but I suppose that would only show up in a trend of several years.
Thanks for all your effort on that info! It was FAR MORE than I would ever have asked you to do had I known you were going to be so thorough!
If I'm ever in the market again, you'll be getting a call! (But hopefully, I'm done :)
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
The Ridge
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Date:
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12/29/2008 12:16:19 PM
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that other post got really long so I broke it up here.
ALSO - if any of you have further questions, you may want to go to my blog and comment there and ask the questions in the "Leave a reply" section. I don't mind at all checking this forum, I love it, but if you leave the comment on my blog I get notified immediately and can respond faster. But, if you would rather stay here, that's OK too.
The Ridge - since so many lots and town homes in the Ridge are still owned by Russell Lands, and being sold privately by them and the results are not run through the MLS, it would be inaccurate for me to comment in general about it. However, just looking at what is publicly known on the MLS, if you look on the entire lake at waterfront homes priced at over $700,000 - right now there are 123 total for sale. By my informal count 28 are in the ridge.
Earlier this summer I seem to remember, in general, that there were like 100 for sale in the entire lake and 50 of them were in the Ridge. % wise that is quite a reduction. that tells me, again, informally, anecdotally, that homes at that price level are selling better in the Ridge. This backs up my anecdotal reactions from buyers, all things equal, they prefer the amenities there as opposed to not. But then again some buyers do not want to be inside any sort of formal development.
The Ridge builders - I am not in a position to comment on this one as I am my own broker and not affiliated with Russell Lands. In general I have noted a reduction in the number of advertised "approved builders." I also think it is an interesting trend to note that RL now owns a high end building company themselves. So will they compete with their own preferred builders? Will they coexist in a "separate but equal" status? Who knows. The situation is fluid. But if I am a builder I am asking myself these questions. It will be interesting to watch and see what effect, if any, it will have on the high end side of the market.
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
Thank you John!
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Date:
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12/29/2008 12:26:51 PM
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thank you for the kind words.
I agree that looking at average sales price is tricky in our market, since it's so small, but doing so over 11 months as you did is more reliable.
Yes, I too find it interesting that average sales prices have not come down much, and that the majority of the lack of sales volume is due to # of homes sold. I would have guessed a mix.
That is why I am advising sellers to price their homes / lots right AT what they would take as opposed to leaving a cushion to negotiate from. Always better to price ahead of the market, whether it's going up or down. So far it has worked well in 08. 09 may be a different story, but I doubt it.
same advice to buyers. get ahead of the trends. If you wait until everyone and their brother says it's OK to buy real estate again, it will be too late, we'll be at the peak of another seller's bubble. See Warren Buffet's great quote on fear & greed.
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| Name: |
Swimmer27
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| Subject: |
Thank you John!
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Date:
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12/29/2008 1:27:56 PM
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Those numbers are very interesting. One question I have is if the average sale price was virtually the same, 650K, di the '08 buyers get more house for thier buck than did the '07? Did the houses have more amenities or more square footage etc.?
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
great question
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Date:
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12/29/2008 2:08:29 PM
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but (to me) is harder to answer. The only way I could think of to answer it would be to look at all 153 sales in 07 and the 133 so far in 08 and then judge some fuzzy criteria of "more house" and amenities. Square foot analysis is not helpful because a relatively high % of the sales price relates to the lot.
My gut says yes, you are getting more house for the buck in 08 and 09. I think you justify this by saying that the quality bar has been raised by the amount of homes on the market, so even if it is the same average price, the homes might be "nicer" - but again this is subjective.
IMHO yes, but I can't quantify or graph it.
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| Name: |
Swimmer27
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| Subject: |
great question
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Date:
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12/29/2008 2:42:45 PM
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No problem. I really didin't expect you to do all that research. Even if you could, there is still a lort of subjective data to have to analyze. What may be an added amenityy to one is someones elses must have, so it would be impossible to quantify. What little attention I pay to the market seems to show that it may be happening though. When I look at the real estate mags it seems that some of the same houses are now offered at lower prices.
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
they are lowering
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Date:
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12/29/2008 3:42:42 PM
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I agree many folks (my sellers included) are lowering prices on homes for sale right now. I guess cumulatively that comes out to about the same avg price as in 07.
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| Name: |
Bhamcpa
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| Subject: |
John, do you have access to...
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Date:
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12/30/2008 2:00:19 PM
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I am one of the preferred builders at the Ridge and in Willow Point. My company name is RLH Construction, Inc. If you need any info please send me an email.
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| Name: |
Toni
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| Subject: |
Nov-08 Real Estate sales
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Date:
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12/31/2008 3:37:30 PM
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John - great information for all. Thanks for the research. I've come up with a few more interesting numbers if you'd like to take a look at my latest post on SellLakeMartin.com
URL: SellLakeMartin.com
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| Name: |
John C
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| Subject: |
Nov-08 Real Estate sales
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Date:
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1/2/2009 9:56:03 AM
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thanks, you too, that was a nice post of yours. It's always good to look at price breakdowns, and will be interesting to see what the trend is in 09.
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