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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Foreclosures NOT a national
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Date:
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2/23/2009 10:06:55 AM
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problem. Do you realize that half of all foreclosures are in only FOUR states?!?!? To listen to Obama/Reid/Pelosi you would think this is a national problem but it is not! It is a regional problem in states that have grown very quickly, have experienced significant overbuilding or have a high rate of hispanic influx contributing to a housing bubble with people of dubious long-term ability to repay. Those four states are California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.
Only nine states have foreclosure rates above the long-term national average (11 per 5,000 households). That means that for 41 states there is no significant increase in foreclosures above the long-term national average. Also, there are eight states with a foreclosure rate of 1 or less in 5,000.
I had always wondered why in the midst of this alleged national crisis I had not seen the evidence of large numbers of foreclosures like I saw in Dallas in the mid-80s when oil prices collapsed. The reason is I don't live in one of those four states. I do live in Georgia which is one of the states with a foreclosure rate above the national average but again it is no crisis here either.
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| Name: |
Talullahhound
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| Subject: |
Foreclosures NOT a national
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Date:
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2/23/2009 11:08:36 AM
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I'm not sure where VA fell in the national statistics, but I can tell you I watched the foreclosures listed in the Washington Post bloom to about 6 pages over a period of months last year.
Interesting, to you point, I did note it appeared to be a number of Hispanic (or at least Hispanic names). In some neighborhoods (and these were neighborhoods of some basic 3 bedroom/1 bath houses from the 1960's) as soon as the building slowdown came, they just put the key in the door and walked away. Having said that, we had two foreclosures in my neighborhood of upscale scale homes, with another one tettering. In all cases these were foreign born people, who bought at the top of the market. I remember thinking at the time that under normal terms, they would not have afforded to live there. They were also the only three homes in our neighborhood who couldn't seem to pay their homeowners fees or to follow the rules of the HOA (which resulted in even more rules being considered) and led to the recreation of our Architectural Committee since they couldn't seem to maintain their homes. I'd say that in all three cases, sub-prime low interest rate loans allowing these people to even contemplate moving in.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Foreclosures NOT a national
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Date:
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2/23/2009 3:10:57 PM
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Virginia is 15th highest in foreclosures and is above the national average but not by much. I suspect that is more related to the creative financing and ninja loans that allowed people to get into homes they really couldn't afford, especially when the teasers expired and the market values dropped so much that they could not refinance.
Nevada is number one because of the housing bubble that occurred there with both speculators and the influx of Hispanics. Unfortunately many of them are involved in seasonal work or based much of their income on the housing market. When that dried up in overbuilt areas they were disproportionately impacted with a loss of income.
Its not to say that the number of foreclosures aren't up across the board, its just that this doesn't really represent a national crisis. In most states we are seeing an impact consistent with previous recessions. In those four states it is much worse.
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| Name: |
SeaRayMan
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| Subject: |
Foreclosures NOT a national
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Date:
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2/24/2009 6:24:56 AM
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MM, would you mind sharing the URL on this article?
I would like to see some other states.
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| Name: |
MartiniMan
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| Subject: |
Foreclosures NOT a national
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Date:
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2/24/2009 9:20:22 AM
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Includes a link to the raw data.
URL: http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2009/2/20/foreclosures-are-a-regional-not-a-national-problem--half-are-in-four-states.html
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