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Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Todays headlines
Date:	8/7/2009 9:54:03 AM

Unemployment rate dips for first time in 15 months, July job loss 70000 less than feared, May and June losses revised downward, average work week rises, average payrolls increase, Republicans across America Jump from the roof of their mansions.

Name:	Council Roc Doc -	Reply
Subject:	Todays headlines
Date:	8/7/2009 10:13:55 AM

Archie, before I jump, I like to read what these numbers really mean. Take a gander at this:

Employment Situation Report - July
The Market Ticker
Friday, August 7. 2009
Posted by Karl Denninger in Macro Economics at 08:59
Employment Situation Report - July

Let's talk about the employment report:

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The average monthly job loss for May through July (-331,000) was about half the average decline for November through April (-645,000). In July, job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors.

That's the headline.

Now let's look inside, and see if we find actual "green shoots".

Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates for adult men (9.8 percent), adult women (7.5 percent), teenagers (23.8 percent), whites (8.6 percent), blacks (14.5 percent), and Hispanics (12.3 percent) were little changed in July. The unemployment rate for Asians was 8.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Ok, that's not bad. Not getting worse isn't getting better, but it IS "not getting worse."

In July, the average workweek of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.1 hours. The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.3 hour to 39.8 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. (See table B-2.)

This is the first upward move in hourly workweek; that is a legitimate improvement, and one of the four items that is in my "must improve" list before economic recovery can be signaled. I need two more positive sequential prints to confirm a trend change.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from -322,000 to -303,000, and the change for June was revised from -467,000 to -443,000.

That's a problem but its in the rear-view mirror.

Now let's talk about the bad news.

The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point in July to 65.5 percent.

This is extremely bad news.

The participation rate must be adjusted back out of the unemployment numbers because those who are not looking for jobs - who have "dropped out" of the workforce - are no longer counted as "unemployed" but they sure count when it comes to consumer spending and thus impact on GDP.

Looking down the release at Page 19 we see that on an unadjusted basis there was no change in unemployment rate (as opposed to a slight improvement) either in U-3 or U-6, and U-5 worsened slightly. This comparison shows that the shift to forcible part-time work - that is, those who are working part-time but want full-time employment, is continuing, and belies any claim of overall improvement.

The general tone of this report thus is characterized as mildly positive on-balance, with the caveat being the forcible shift to part-time employment. When looked at in the context of the expected summer employment boost (e.g. theme parks, hospitality increase for summer vacations, etc) the report is rather nasty however - the usual seasonal spike that one would see in the unadjusted data is greatly muted, signaling caution for the durability of any "improvement" that one might expect to see going forward.

Key will be whether that hiring in fact took place (and masked other weakness, which from a perusal of the internals of the report it appears may have happened) or whether there was simply no hiring at all, in which case this improvement may signal a true organic shift of some sort.

It is for this reason that I require at least two (and preferably three) months of improvement in hours-worked before I call the indicator for employment slack as having turned around.

Beware Archie, that bump in your second quarter 401K is a red herring.

Name:	green,ed -	Reply
Subject:	Todays headlines
Date:	8/7/2009 10:27:01 AM

Wrong. The Republicans are making the payrolls that are up.

Name:	Jim Dandy -	Reply
Subject:	Todays headlines
Date:	8/7/2009 10:41:24 AM

Lame.

Name:	water_watcher -	Reply
Subject:	So funny
Date:	8/7/2009 1:47:20 PM

I guess there are so many disasters with this administration you have to take even bad news and try to make it good.

Nearly ANOTHER quarter of a million people lost their jobs in July and you are happy?

If NOTHING was done, at worst we would have been at the same place at this stag of a recession. I believe the policies of this administration have made the recession longer and still losing a quarter million jobs, even if down from the previous month, is way too high after 18 months. There have been some recessions we never even lost that many in any one month, let alone after 18 months.

Obama and the dems should be ashamed of themselves and embarrassed to try and even say this is good news to the people still losing their jobs. When Bush pulled us out of the recession Clinton left, then 9/11 hit ... he was humble even when the job loses were declining and he was growing jobs by this point.

And please do not say this was worse problems. I don't know what could be worse than 9/11 and an attack on america and our whole financial system.

You and the other liberals that will try to say this is good news to support the worst president we have ever had in the history of this coutry, make me sick.

Tell the millions that are out of work this is good news and that Obama himself said it could be another 2 years before jobs start to grow. Oh yeah, his policies are in americas best interest and not just his agenda.

Name:	rude evin -	Reply
Subject:	Archy............
Date:	8/7/2009 3:19:54 PM

Your wealth envy and arrogance are incongruent...........wish you would choose one or the other............

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	WW, This is not good news
Date:	8/7/2009 3:30:18 PM

but is a lot less bad than June when the report had an unexpected increase from thr previous month and you took anyone who didn't outright blame and condemn Obama to task for refusing to face the facts. I said then and repeat now, the economy is slowly but surely turning around. Obama doesn't deserve all the credit for the improvement or for all of the good things to come, but history might eventually give him at least some of it. Conversely, he doesn't deserve all the blame for the situation we have gotten into, us "liberals" reserve all that for W.

By the way you don't make me sick as you said I make you, but your outright hatred for any opinions you dislike does make me worry about the state of your mental health.

You should start a blog, you could give Glen Beck and Rush a run for their money while driving thousands of moderates out of the Republican party.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	It looks as if
Date:	8/7/2009 3:34:01 PM

the less bad economic news is sending the wing-nuts into full panic mode.

Name:	wix -	Reply
Subject:	"less bad economic news"
Date:	8/7/2009 5:59:56 PM

Gotta love it. Does an almost double negative make it good news?

Name:	water_watcher -	Reply
Subject:	you keeping
Date:	8/7/2009 6:19:52 PM

looking through those rose colored glasses. As another quarter of a million lose their jobs. Less bad, yes. But Bad none the less so no one is celebrating on the right when this should not be happening. The only people that seem to have a mental problem is you and Obama, along with his administration to make this good news when ANOTHER 250,000 people lost their jobs and how many are not being counted that stopped looking.

Very sad that a liberal can spin this as positive when they blasted Bush when he was creating jobs at a high rate and they said they were not good quality jobs. Now losing another quarter million in a month is positived.

Wow. That is all I can say is wow.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Yes, less bad
Date:	8/7/2009 7:00:20 PM

and a lot "less bad" by more than 60% than W's last month.

Name:	cobra -	Reply
Subject:	Todays headlines
Date:	8/7/2009 11:19:34 PM

Putting stats on the news and internet about how our economy is doing is crap. I deal with companies everyday from New York to south Florida. I talk to people, not read the news. A good friend whom I have dealt with for years told me today that south Florida is a nightmare. He said he purchased his home in 2002 for $150,000. The price skyrocketed to around $290,000 in early 07 and he said he almost sold. He put it on the market six months ago and sold it last week for $135,000. He said where he lives in the Palm Beach county that it seems every other house is in foreclosure. Now My Oba tell us the worst is over. Wait until the cash for clunker is all said and done. These people buying these cars do not have a clue how they will pay for them, but they are a good deal and the banks are loaning. Oh well, our government can just print some more money, that works real good. Cobra

Name:	water_watcher -	Reply
Subject:	Yes, less bad
Date:	8/8/2009 8:02:18 AM

we would not have had the mess if it was not for the liberal CRA and the dems blocking the republican attempts, several times to fix the crazy loans. Do we need to play all the videos again of the people testifying in front of congress and the dems saying that the republicans just do not want minorities to own homes.

Name:	water_watcher -	Reply
Subject:	Yes, less bad
Date:	8/8/2009 8:05:07 AM

and now Obama is setting us up for the same thing again. with cash for clunkers and having the "feds" back sub prime loans aagin.

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	Yes, less bad
Date:	8/8/2009 8:38:23 AM

I also remember the videos of W telling people to go out and buy a home to become a part of the "ownership society".

Name:	architect -	Reply
Subject:	and furthermore
Date:	8/8/2009 8:41:04 AM

just what the heck do your 2 posts above have to do with the subject at hand?

Name:	realfast -	Reply
Subject:	Yes, less bad
Date:	8/8/2009 9:01:36 AM

Glad arch is from georgia!!

Name:	JustAGuy -	Reply
Subject:	Todays headlines
Date:	8/8/2009 10:29:49 PM

Can't converse about the real estate market in South Florida ... I've heard it's bad but have no first hand knowledge. As for "Cash fo Clunkers" I haven't heard that lenders have softened their requirements in the last 6 months ... so I can't imagine that people who can't afford new cars are getting approved for loans ... maybe I'm wrong ... can you provide any sources to back that up? Thanks.

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